每經AI快訊，中國銀河09月30日發布研報稱：維持保險行業推薦評級。

負(fu)債端(duan)持續承壓，累計保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)增(zeng)速負(fu)增(zeng)長：疫情反復保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)單消費(fei)(fei)需求受抑(yi)制,疊(die)加(jia)險(xian)(xian)(xian)企代理(li)人(ren)脫落、增(zeng)員難，行業(ye)(ye)(ye)負(fu)債端(duan)依(yi)然(ran)承壓。1-8月，保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)實現(xian)原(yuan)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)收(shou)入33024.49億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)0.67%，降(jiang)幅(fu)相較前7月擴大(da)0.34個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。單月數據來(lai)看,壽險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)、產(chan)險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)、健康險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)、意外(wai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)增(zeng)速環比(bi)(bi)(bi)均有所回落。8月單月，保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)實現(xian)原(yuan)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)3060.07億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)3.91%,降(jiang)幅(fu)環比(bi)(bi)(bi)擴大(da)3.57個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。其中，壽險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)實現(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)收(shou)入1501.82億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)0.49%；產(chan)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)實現(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)收(shou)入883.97億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)10.93%，降(jiang)幅(fu)環比(bi)(bi)(bi)擴大(da)1.79個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)；健康險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)實現(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)收(shou)入585.27億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)1.6%，增(zeng)速環比(bi)(bi)(bi)轉負(fu)；意外(wai)險(xian)(xian)(xian)業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)實現(xian)保(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)收(shou)入89.02億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長0.79%,增(zeng)速環比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)3.25個百(bai)分(fen)點(dian)。

上市險(xian)企壽險(xian)保(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)承(cheng)壓，平安(an)壽險(xian)累計保(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)降幅收(shou)窄(zhai)：1-8月(yue),中(zhong)國平安(an)、中(zhong)國人壽、中(zhong)國太(tai)保(bao)(bao)、新華保(bao)(bao)險(xian)以及中(zhong)國人保(bao)(bao)分別實現壽險(xian)保(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)收(shou)入3566.91/5043.00/1663.90/1189.38/1018.89億元,同比分別增(zeng)長-3.32%/2.33%/-0.13%/2.00%/-0.85%，增(zeng)速相較前7月(yue)份變化+0.24pt/-0.71pt/-1.96pt/-0.5pt/-1.98pt。平安(an)壽險(xian)保(bao)(bao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)降幅收(shou)窄(zhai)，未來在基數作用(yong)下有(you)望(wang)延續(xu)。

受(shou)車險(xian)(xian)綜(zong)改(gai)(gai)影響,產(chan)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)費(fei)承壓,未來隨著基數(shu)影響有望改(gai)(gai)善：1-8月，中(zhong)國平(ping)安(an)、中(zhong)國人(ren)保(bao)、中(zhong)國太保(bao)分(fen)別實現產(chan)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)費(fei)收入1750.94/3098.43/1051.77億元(yuan)，同(tong)比分(fen)別增長-9.18%/0.72%/5.30%,增速相(xiang)較前7月份變化-0.73pt/-0.52pt/-1.22pt。9月之(zhi)后車險(xian)(xian)改(gai)(gai)革滿一年(nian)，基數(shu)下降(jiang)，有望推動產(chan)險(xian)(xian)保(bao)費(fei)回暖。

行(xing)業資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)規模(mo)擴張，固收類(lei)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)配(pei)(pei)置比(bi)(bi)例(li)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升：截至2021年(nian)8月(yue)末(mo)(mo)(mo)，保險行(xing)業總(zong)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)24.13萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)元，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)末(mo)(mo)(mo)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)3.59%，增(zeng)(zeng)速相(xiang)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)7月(yue)末(mo)(mo)(mo)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升0.86個百分(fen)(fen)點；凈資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)2.87萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)元，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)末(mo)(mo)(mo)增(zeng)(zeng)加(jia)4.38%，增(zeng)(zeng)速相(xiang)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)7月(yue)末(mo)(mo)(mo)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)0.37個百分(fen)(fen)點；資(zi)(zi)金運用余額(e)22.25萬(wan)(wan)億(yi)元，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)末(mo)(mo)(mo)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.61%，增(zeng)(zeng)速相(xiang)較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)7月(yue)末(mo)(mo)(mo)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)1.03個百分(fen)(fen)點。險企固收類(lei)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)配(pei)(pei)置比(bi)(bi)例(li)上(shang)(shang)(shang)升,權益(yi)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)配(pei)(pei)置比(bi)(bi)例(li)下降。截至2021年(nian)8月(yue)末(mo)(mo)(mo)，固收類(lei)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)（銀行(xing)存款+債券）配(pei)(pei)置比(bi)(bi)例(li)50.65%，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)末(mo)(mo)(mo)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.07個百分(fen)(fen)點；權益(yi)類(lei)資(zi)(zi)產(chan)(chan)（股票和(he)基(ji)金）配(pei)(pei)置比(bi)(bi)例(li)12.23%，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)末(mo)(mo)(mo)減少1.53個百分(fen)(fen)點；其他類(lei)投資(zi)(zi)比(bi)(bi)例(li)37.13%，較(jiao)(jiao)(jiao)上(shang)(shang)(shang)年(nian)末(mo)(mo)(mo)減少0.54個百分(fen)(fen)點。

財(cai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)條(tiao)(tiao)款(kuan)(kuan)和保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)費(fei)率(lv)管理辦(ban)法(fa)修訂，強化(hua)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品監管：中國銀保(bao)(bao)監會發(fa)布新修訂的(de)(de)《財(cai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)條(tiao)(tiao)款(kuan)(kuan)和保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)費(fei)率(lv)管理辦(ban)法(fa)》,自2021年(nian)10月(yue)1日起(qi)施行。《辦(ban)法(fa)》進一步規范(fan)條(tiao)(tiao)款(kuan)(kuan)費(fei)率(lv)開發(fa)報備，強化(hua)條(tiao)(tiao)款(kuan)(kuan)費(fei)率(lv)管理。《辦(ban)法(fa)》的(de)(de)修訂有助夯(hang)實產(chan)(chan)(chan)品監管制度基(ji)礎，加強和改(gai)進財(cai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品監管，規范(fan)財(cai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)公(gong)司(si)(si)(si)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)條(tiao)(tiao)款(kuan)(kuan)開發(fa)和費(fei)率(lv)厘定(ding)行為，進一步提升(sheng)財(cai)產(chan)(chan)(chan)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)行業(ye)保(bao)(bao)險(xian)(xian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)品整體質(zhi)量。

投(tou)資建議：疫情反復壓(ya)制(zhi)保(bao)險(xian)(xian)產品(pin)消費需求,險(xian)(xian)企代(dai)理人脫落、增(zeng)員難(nan)，險(xian)(xian)企負債端(duan)承壓(ya)，新單、新業(ye)務價(jia)值(zhi)增(zeng)長受到沖擊。開門紅(hong)啟動在即,在當前業(ye)績(ji)壓(ya)力(li)以及(ji)高基數效應(ying)下,仍難(nan)有明顯改善，險(xian)(xian)企需持(chi)續推(tui)進(jin)代(dai)理人隊伍(wu)以及(ji)產品(pin)策略(lve)變革,適(shi)應(ying)客(ke)戶需求變化。當前價(jia)格對應(ying)2021年保(bao)險(xian)(xian)板(ban)塊(kuai)P/EV在0.46X-0.71X之間，估(gu)值(zhi)處于(yu)歷(li)史低位，充分反映(ying)市場對行業(ye)基本面(mian)的(de)悲觀預期(qi)，建議關(guan)注配置價(jia)值(zhi)。個股方面(mian)，我們(men)持(chi)續推(tui)薦中國(guo)太保(bao)(601601.SH)、中國(guo)平安(601318.SH)。

風(feng)險(xian)(xian)提示(shi)：長端(duan)利率曲線持(chi)續下移的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)；保險(xian)(xian)產品銷(xiao)售不及預期(qi)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)。

每經頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

免責聲(sheng)明(ming)：本文內容與數據僅供參考，不(bu)構(gou)成投(tou)資建議，使用前核實。據此操作，風險自擔。