每經(jing)AI快訊，中國銀河04月20日發布研報稱：給予家用電器推薦（維持）評級。

事件：產(chan)(chan)業在線發布家用空(kong)調(diao)產(chan)(chan)銷數據，2022年(nian)3月(yue)家用空(kong)調(diao)生產(chan)(chan)1621.2萬臺(tai)，同比(bi)下降(jiang)3.68%，銷量1667.36萬臺(tai)，同比(bi)增(zeng)長4.93%。其中內銷出貨828.84萬臺(tai)，同比(bi)增(zeng)長3.25%，出口838.42萬臺(tai)，同比(bi)增(zeng)長6.64%。

三月(yue)(yue)內銷(xiao)(xiao)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)環(huan)比(bi)改(gai)善：3月(yue)(yue)空(kong)調(diao)內銷(xiao)(xiao)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長3.25%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)相比(bi)1-2月(yue)(yue)份累計(ji)數(shu)據有(you)所改(gai)善，我們認為原因可(ke)能(neng)為經銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)備貨意(yi)愿(yuan)提升(sheng)(sheng)。從(cong)零(ling)售(shou)(shou)端(duan)來(lai)看(kan)(kan)，受新冠肺炎疫情影響，3月(yue)(yue)終(zhong)端(duan)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)不景氣，盡管終(zhong)端(duan)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)價格同(tong)(tong)比(bi)上升(sheng)(sheng)，但(dan)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)量(liang)和(he)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)額(e)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)均(jun)出(chu)現一定下(xia)降(jiang)。奧維(wei)云網數(shu)據顯示，3月(yue)(yue)份空(kong)調(diao)線(xian)上、線(xian)下(xia)零(ling)售(shou)(shou)額(e)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)了21.7%和(he)22.89%。對于空(kong)調(diao)企(qi)業來(lai)說，4月(yue)(yue)份已進入第二季(ji)度，即將迎來(lai)空(kong)調(diao)旺季(ji)，企(qi)業加大排產為渠道備貨動(dong)力(li)較足。從(cong)空(kong)調(diao)排產數(shu)據來(lai)看(kan)(kan)，2022年4月(yue)(yue)家(jia)用空(kong)調(diao)內銷(xiao)(xiao)排產較去年同(tong)(tong)期生產實(shi)績增(zeng)(zeng)長14.9%。外銷(xiao)(xiao)方面則延續增(zeng)(zeng)長趨勢，3月(yue)(yue)份同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長6.64%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)較1-2月(yue)(yue)累計(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)環(huan)比(bi)提升(sheng)(sheng)，從(cong)排產數(shu)據來(lai)看(kan)(kan)，外銷(xiao)(xiao)較好趨勢有(you)望(wang)得到延續。

美的內(nei)外增(zeng)(zeng)速均較快：3月(yue)份(fen)(fen)美的總銷(xiao)(xiao)量560萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加20.4%，其(qi)(qi)中內(nei)銷(xiao)(xiao)260萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加20.93%，出(chu)口300萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)加20%，我(wo)們認為(wei)(wei)(wei)外銷(xiao)(xiao)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)上漲主要原(yuan)因為(wei)(wei)(wei)去年同(tong)(tong)期基數相對較低，美的3月(yue)份(fen)(fen)出(chu)口數據與2020年同(tong)(tong)期持平。3月(yue)份(fen)(fen)格(ge)力總銷(xiao)(xiao)量400萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降7.6%，其(qi)(qi)中內(nei)銷(xiao)(xiao)255萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降10.53%，降幅已有所收(shou)窄(zhai)出(chu)口145萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降1.3%。海爾(er)表現較為(wei)(wei)(wei)平穩，總銷(xiao)(xiao)量193萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)4.3%，其(qi)(qi)中內(nei)銷(xiao)(xiao)136萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)0.74%，出(chu)口57萬(wan)(wan)臺(tai)(tai)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)14%。除三大白電外，其(qi)(qi)他品(pin)牌(pai)分化明顯(xian)，海信(xin)和(he)TCL內(nei)外銷(xiao)(xiao)均取得較快增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。

行業(ye)集中度(du)小幅下降(jiang)：3月份美的、格力(li)、海爾總出貨量市占(zhan)率為33.59%、23.99%、11.58%，同(tong)比(bi)變動(dong)(dong)4.32、-3.26、-0.07PCT，其(qi)中內銷市占(zhan)率分別為31.37%、30.77%、16.41%，同(tong)比(bi)變動(dong)(dong)4.59、-4.74、-0.41PCT，出口市占(zhan)率分別為35.78%、17.29%、12.52%，同(tong)比(bi)變動(dong)(dong)3.99、-1.53、0.82PCT。從集中度(du)來看，3月份空調(diao)內銷CR3為78.55%，同(tong)比(bi)小幅下降(jiang)0.55PCT。

投資(zi)建(jian)議：3月空(kong)(kong)調內(nei)銷在零售端表現不佳的(de)背景下同比增長3.2%，外銷則延續增長趨勢。由于(yu)4月份疫(yi)情(qing)影響持續，空(kong)(kong)調零售端恢(hui)復依然(ran)面臨一定(ding)難(nan)度。由于(yu)空(kong)(kong)調銷售旺(wang)季即(ji)將到來，疊加出口形勢較(jiao)好(hao)，內(nei)外銷排產均(jun)有所增長。近(jin)期原(yuan)材料價格處(chu)于(yu)高位(wei)，廠商通過(guo)提(ti)價對沖成本上漲(zhang)壓力，行業盈(ying)利改(gai)善預期有望(wang)延續。白電龍頭由于(yu)近(jin)期調整(zheng)較(jiao)多，估值處(chu)于(yu)歷(li)史(shi)相對較(jiao)低位(wei)置，安全邊際(ji)較(jiao)高，推(tui)薦美的(de)集團（000333）、格力電器（000651）和海爾智家（600690）。

風(feng)險提示：原材料價格波(bo)動的風(feng)險；出口訂單轉移的風(feng)險；疫(yi)情影響(xiang)超預期的風(feng)險。

每經(jing)頭(tou)條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王曉波)

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