每經AI快(kuai)訊，中國銀河09月05日發布研報稱：給予輕工制造推薦（維持）評級。

家(jia)(jia)居(ju)(ju)(ju)：地產、疫情(qing)(qing)有(you)(you)所改善，關注(zhu)家(jia)(jia)居(ju)(ju)(ju)龍頭(tou)在(zai)(zai)下(xia)半年(nian)業績(ji)修復表現(xian)：房地產方面(mian)，8月以來(lai)，在(zai)(zai)中央“保交樓”政策引(yin)導下(xia)，房地產銷售有(you)(you)所企(qi)穩，30大(da)中城市商(shang)品(pin)房銷售累計值(zhi)同比下(xia)降(jiang)幅度均(jun)持續收窄。我(wo)們預(yu)計，在(zai)(zai)政策支持下(xia)，下(xia)半年(nian)房地產市場(chang)下(xia)行(xing)空間有(you)(you)限，有(you)(you)望(wang)(wang)持續修復。疫情(qing)(qing)方面(mian)，近期疫情(qing)(qing)雖略有(you)(you)抬頭(tou)，但較二季度已有(you)(you)大(da)幅改善，華東(dong)地區作為家(jia)(jia)居(ju)(ju)(ju)行(xing)業重(zhong)點市場(chang)，上(shang)半年(nian)受疫情(qing)(qing)影響拖累整體表現(xian)，下(xia)半年(nian)家(jia)(jia)居(ju)(ju)(ju)剛需(xu)有(you)(you)望(wang)(wang)回補，進(jin)而帶(dai)動業績(ji)修復。供給方面(mian)，整體來(lai)看，大(da)家(jia)(jia)居(ju)(ju)(ju)戰略引(yin)領下(xia)，頭(tou)部家(jia)(jia)居(ju)(ju)(ju)企(qi)業持續進(jin)行(xing)商(shang)業模式創(chuang)新，推進(jin)品(pin)類融(rong)合(he)，強。

造(zao)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)：行業(ye)(ye)承(cheng)壓加速(su)集中(zhong)，龍頭企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)業(ye)(ye)績彈(dan)性(xing)可(ke)期(qi)：廢紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)系(xi)(xi)：7月(yue)(yue)以來(lai)，廢黃板(ban)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)快(kuai)速(su)下(xia)行帶動成品(pin)(pin)(pin)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)盈(ying)(ying)(ying)利(li)能(neng)(neng)力(li)大幅反(fan)彈(dan)，8月(yue)(yue)廢黃板(ban)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)企(qi)(qi)穩(wen)反(fan)彈(dan)，成品(pin)(pin)(pin)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)毛(mao)利(li)率有(you)所下(xia)滑。頭部紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)企(qi)(qi)頻繁發布停機(ji)計(ji)劃，對瓦楞紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)、箱板(ban)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)進(jin)行減產(chan)，未來(lai)供(gong)需格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)局有(you)望(wang)改善，我們(men)預(yu)計(ji)未來(lai)廢紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)系(xi)(xi)成品(pin)(pin)(pin)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)盈(ying)(ying)(ying)利(li)能(neng)(neng)力(li)有(you)望(wang)維穩(wen)。漿(jiang)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)系(xi)(xi)：受紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)漿(jiang)供(gong)應鏈(lian)事件(jian)、能(neng)(neng)源價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)等因(yin)素沖擊，我國紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)漿(jiang)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)快(kuai)速(su)上漲(zhang)(zhang)至歷史高(gao)(gao)位，導(dao)致成品(pin)(pin)(pin)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)盈(ying)(ying)(ying)利(li)能(neng)(neng)力(li)持(chi)續下(xia)滑。展望(wang)未來(lai)，一方(fang)面(mian)，近期(qi)多(duo)家紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)企(qi)(qi)集體(ti)提(ti)價(jia)(jia)，盈(ying)(ying)(ying)利(li)能(neng)(neng)力(li)有(you)望(wang)持(chi)續改善；另一方(fang)面(mian)，Arauco預(yu)計(ji)將于(yu)10月(yue)(yue)下(xia)旬投產(chan)，有(you)望(wang)緩解供(gong)應緊張壓力(li)。特(te)種(zhong)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)：短期(qi)來(lai)看，特(te)種(zhong)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)原材料(liao)(liao)主要為紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)漿(jiang)及化工原料(liao)(liao)，漿(jiang)價(jia)(jia)高(gao)(gao)企(qi)(qi)支撐特(te)種(zhong)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)提(ti)價(jia)(jia)，且(qie)特(te)種(zhong)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)較其他紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)種(zhong)具備更強(qiang)的價(jia)(jia)格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)傳(chuan)導(dao)能(neng)(neng)力(li)，能(neng)(neng)保(bao)持(chi)漲(zhang)(zhang)價(jia)(jia)勢頭并實現落(luo)地(di)，未來(lai)頭部紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)企(qi)(qi)仍有(you)望(wang)繼續提(ti)價(jia)(jia)釋放業(ye)(ye)績彈(dan)性(xing)；中(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)來(lai)看，特(te)種(zhong)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)下(xia)游需求(qiu)持(chi)續擴張，競爭格(ge)(ge)(ge)(ge)局良好，頭部企(qi)(qi)業(ye)(ye)持(chi)續進(jin)行產(chan)能(neng)(neng)建(jian)設，布局自給(gei)漿(jiang)，未來(lai)成長(chang)性(xing)顯著。建(jian)議關注：

包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)：原(yuan)材料(liao)(liao)(liao)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)下(xia)行(xing)，把(ba)握盈利(li)修復(fu)機遇：紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)，受(shou)益(yi)于環(huan)保趨勢，紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)行(xing)業(ye)有望(wang)實現擴張(zhang)，但(dan)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)集中(zhong)度較(jiao)(jiao)低，有待(dai)提(ti)升；龍頭企業(ye)開始從(cong)生產商向(xiang)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)解決方(fang)案提(ti)供商轉變，業(ye)務實現縱向(xiang)發展。塑料(liao)(liao)(liao)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)，政(zheng)策支持及(ji)技術升級(ji)(ji)驅(qu)動下(xia)，市(shi)場(chang)(chang)規(gui)模(mo)穩定(ding)增長，但(dan)市(shi)場(chang)(chang)集中(zhong)度較(jiao)(jiao)低，行(xing)業(ye)競爭(zheng)激烈；奶(nai)酪(lao)行(xing)業(ye)快速(su)成(cheng)長，帶動奶(nai)酪(lao)棒(bang)(bang)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)迅速(su)發展，奶(nai)酪(lao)棒(bang)(bang)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)具備(bei)較(jiao)(jiao)強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)技術壁壘，競爭(zheng)格(ge)局優良(liang)，投資價(jia)(jia)值凸顯。金屬(shu)(shu)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)，飲料(liao)(liao)(liao)酒(jiu)水為金屬(shu)(shu)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)主要下(xia)游應用，啤酒(jiu)罐化(hua)率不斷提(ti)升，持續(xu)貢(gong)獻增量(liang)需求；供需格(ge)局改善強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)化(hua)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)龍頭議(yi)價(jia)(jia)能力，盈利(li)有望(wang)增強(qiang)(qiang)(qiang)。包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)原(yuan)材料(liao)(liao)(liao)方(fang)面(mian)(mian)(mian)，廢黃(huang)板紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)下(xia)行(xing)帶動包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)價(jia)(jia)格(ge)下(xia)降(jiang)，化(hua)工(gong)產品同原(yuan)油價(jia)(jia)格(ge)持續(xu)下(xia)行(xing)，鍍錫板卷及(ji)鋁(lv)材均(jun)較(jiao)(jiao)高位有較(jiao)(jiao)大降(jiang)幅，紙(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)、塑料(liao)(liao)(liao)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)及(ji)金屬(shu)(shu)包(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)(bao)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)(zhuang)原(yuan)材料(liao)(liao)(liao)成(cheng)本(ben)均(jun)將得到(dao)緩(huan)解，未來盈利(li)有望(wang)逐漸修復(fu)。(維持評級(ji)(ji))技】。

輕工消費：電子(zi)(zi)煙(yan)(yan)行業(ye)(ye)成長性顯(xian)著，文具(ju)行業(ye)(ye)市(shi)場持(chi)續擴(kuo)(kuo)容(rong)：電子(zi)(zi)煙(yan)(yan)：監管政策穩(wen)步推進，相關牌(pai)(pai)照陸續發放，頭部企業(ye)(ye)來看，悅刻已獲(huo)得品牌(pai)(pai)持(chi)牌(pai)(pai)許(xu)(xu)可，年生產配額為(wei)3.287億(yi)顆煙(yan)(yan)彈(dan)、1,505萬根煙(yan)(yan)桿、610萬支一(yi)次性電子(zi)(zi)煙(yan)(yan)。同時，思(si)摩爾國際(ji)主(zhu)要子(zi)(zi)公司麥(mai)(mai)克(ke)韋(wei)爾、麥(mai)(mai)克(ke)兄(xiong)弟科技及韋(wei)普萊思(si)均(jun)已獲(huo)得生產企業(ye)(ye)許(xu)(xu)可證；比亞迪(di)全資(zi)子(zi)(zi)公司比亞迪(di)精密制造也(ye)已獲(huo)得許(xu)(xu)可證。國內(nei)擁有全球最大的煙(yan)(yan)民群體，電子(zi)(zi)煙(yan)(yan)滲透率低，疊加國際(ji)需求穩(wen)步擴(kuo)(kuo)容(rong)，未(wei)來行業(ye)(ye)發展空間(jian)(jian)廣闊。文具(ju)：C端文具(ju)產品高端化發展，人均(jun)消費對(dui)標美日具(ju)備較大提(ti)升空間(jian)(jian)，未(wei)來市(shi)場規模將穩(wen)健成長，集中(zhong)度有望提(ti)升；數字化采(cai)購(gou)快速發展，市(shi)場空間(jian)(jian)達萬億(yi)級，辦公直(zhi)銷業(ye)(ye)務成長性顯(xian)著。

風險提示：宏觀經濟下(xia)行(xing)；房(fang)地產(chan)復蘇(su)不(bu)及預(yu)期(qi)；原材料價(jia)格(ge)上(shang)漲。輕工(gong)(gong)(gong)制造業(ye)(ye)主要指生產(chan)消費資料的工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)，提供生活(huo)消費品并制作手工(gong)(gong)(gong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)具(ju)，其概念與重工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)相對，同(tong)時互有交(jiao)叉(cha)。按(an)照證券(quan)市場分類，輕工(gong)(gong)(gong)制造行(xing)業(ye)(ye)通常由(you)包裝(zhuang)印刷(shua)、家居用品、造紙及文娛用品四大板塊構(gou)成。2021年(nian)，輕工(gong)(gong)(gong)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)規(gui)模以上(shang)工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)企業(ye)(ye)數占(zhan)全國工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)的27.6%，資產(chan)總額占(zhan)全國工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)的13.4%，營(ying)(ying)業(ye)(ye)收(shou)入(ru)占(zhan)全國工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)的17.5%，利(li)潤總額占(zhan)全國工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)的16.2%，全國輕工(gong)(gong)(gong)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)規(gui)模以上(shang)企業(ye)(ye)出(chu)口交(jiao)貨值占(zhan)全國出(chu)口交(jiao)貨值的19.7%。輕工(gong)(gong)(gong)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)全部工(gong)(gong)(gong)業(ye)(ye)企業(ye)(ye)累計實現營(ying)(ying)業(ye)(ye)收(shou)入(ru)26。

每經頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

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