每經AI快訊，中國銀河11月07日發布研報稱：給予通用設備推薦（維持）評級。

市場(chang)行情回顧(gu)：本(ben)周機械(xie)(xie)設(she)(she)備指數(shu)上(shang)漲(zhang)7.09%，滬(hu)深(shen)300指數(shu)上(shang)漲(zhang)6.38%，創業板(ban)指上(shang)漲(zhang)8.92%。機械(xie)(xie)設(she)(she)備在全部28個行業中漲(zhang)跌(die)幅(fu)(fu)排名第9位。剔除負(fu)值后，機械(xie)(xie)行業估值水平(ping)31.3（整(zheng)體法）。本(ben)周機械(xie)(xie)行業漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)前三(san)的板(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)分(fen)(fen)別是鋰電設(she)(she)備、激光(guang)、注塑機；年初至今漲(zhang)幅(fu)(fu)前三(san)的細分(fen)(fen)板(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)分(fen)(fen)別是光(guang)伏設(she)(she)備、油(you)氣開發設(she)(she)備、機床工具。

周關(guan)注：通(tong)用(yong)(yong)設(she)備迎(ying)底(di)部復蘇，換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)標準(zhun)(zhun)發(fa)布(bu)在(zai)即(ji)推(tui)動重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)加(jia)(jia)速(su)發(fa)展(zhan)：9月(yue)(yue)(yue)通(tong)用(yong)(yong)設(she)備產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)邊際改善，四(si)季度(du)有望(wang)(wang)迎(ying)來筑底(di)回升(sheng)。9月(yue)(yue)(yue)我國(guo)(guo)制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)固定資產(chan)(chan)(chan)投(tou)資增(zeng)速(su)10.7%，增(zeng)速(su)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)提升(sheng)0.1pct；1-9月(yue)(yue)(yue)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)增(zeng)長10.1%，較前8個(ge)月(yue)(yue)(yue)提高0.1pct，制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)保(bao)持(chi)較強韌性。9月(yue)(yue)(yue)我國(guo)(guo)工業(ye)(ye)(ye)機(ji)(ji)器(qi)(qi)人產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)43009臺，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長15.1%；1-9月(yue)(yue)(yue)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)322544臺，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降7.1%，降幅(fu)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)8月(yue)(yue)(yue)收窄(zhai)3.4pct。9月(yue)(yue)(yue)我國(guo)(guo)金屬切削機(ji)(ji)床(chuang)(chuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)4.4萬臺，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降12.0%，降幅(fu)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)收窄(zhai)1.5pct；1-9月(yue)(yue)(yue)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)41.6萬臺，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降11.1%。9月(yue)(yue)(yue)金屬成形機(ji)(ji)床(chuang)(chuang)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)17000臺，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降19.0%；1-9月(yue)(yue)(yue)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)產(chan)(chan)(chan)量(liang)(liang)152000臺，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降13.1%。制(zhi)造(zao)業(ye)(ye)(ye)需(xu)求(qiu)和生產(chan)(chan)(chan)底(di)部復蘇，通(tong)用(yong)(yong)設(she)備類投(tou)資機(ji)(ji)會(hui)值得關(guan)注，推(tui)薦(jian)方向(xiang)包括：1）機(ji)(ji)床(chuang)(chuang)刀具，標的(de)歐科(ke)(ke)億、華銳精密、中鎢高新(xin)；2）機(ji)(ji)床(chuang)(chuang)，標的(de)創世(shi)紀、海(hai)天(tian)精工、國(guo)(guo)盛智科(ke)(ke)、科(ke)(ke)德(de)數控，（3）機(ji)(ji)器(qi)(qi)人，標的(de)埃斯頓、綠的(de)諧波；4）其(qi)他個(ge)股，怡合達、國(guo)(guo)茂(mao)股份。重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)標準(zhun)(zhun)或將年(nian)內(nei)發(fa)布(bu)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)有望(wang)(wang)加(jia)(jia)速(su)推(tui)進(jin)。全球新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源汽(qi)車(che)快(kuai)速(su)發(fa)展(zhan)，我國(guo)(guo)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源汽(qi)車(che)滲透率快(kuai)速(su)提升(sheng)。面對(dui)日益增(zeng)長的(de)補能(neng)(neng)需(xu)求(qiu)，換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模式迎(ying)來發(fa)展(zhan)風口。中國(guo)(guo)新(xin)能(neng)(neng)源重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)快(kuai)速(su)發(fa)展(zhan)，前三季度(du)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)銷量(liang)(liang)14199輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)長265.4%；其(qi)中換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)銷量(liang)(liang)7157輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)大幅(fu)增(zeng)長4倍。換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模式可有效(xiao)降低購車(che)成本，隨著(zhu)商(shang)(shang)業(ye)(ye)(ye)模式和經濟(ji)性的(de)逐步驗證，車(che)企、運營商(shang)(shang)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)池廠商(shang)(shang)等紛(fen)紛(fen)布(bu)局(ju)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)將成為(wei)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)的(de)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)要增(zeng)長點(dian)。據(ju)中國(guo)(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)產(chan)(chan)(chan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)促進(jin)聯盟秘書長李立國(guo)(guo)透露，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)標準(zhun)(zhun)有望(wang)(wang)在(zai)今(jin)年(nian)年(nian)底(di)或明年(nian)上半年(nian)發(fa)布(bu)；由中汽(qi)協牽頭編制(zhi)的(de)《電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)動中重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)卡(ka)(ka)(ka)共(gong)享換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)建設(she)及(ji)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)車(che)輛技(ji)術規范》系列團體(ti)標準(zhun)(zhun)，也將在(zai)今(jin)年(nian)11月(yue)(yue)(yue)底(di)舉(ju)辦的(de)首屆中國(guo)(guo)商(shang)(shang)用(yong)(yong)車(che)論(lun)壇(tan)上發(fa)布(bu)。換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)標準(zhun)(zhun)的(de)發(fa)布(bu)有助(zhu)于消除(chu)換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)發(fa)展(zhan)痛點(dian)，加(jia)(jia)快(kuai)推(tui)動換電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)市場發(fa)展(zhan)。

投資(zi)建議：持續看好制造強國(guo)與供(gong)應(ying)鏈(lian)安全(quan)趨勢(shi)下高端裝(zhuang)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)進口替代(dai)以及雙(shuang)碳趨勢(shi)下新能(neng)(neng)源裝(zhuang)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)領域投資(zi)機(ji)(ji)會。建議關注（1）機(ji)(ji)械設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)領域存在進口替代(dai)空間的(de)子行(xing)業，包(bao)括(kuo)數控機(ji)(ji)床及刀具、機(ji)(ji)器(qi)(qi)人(ren)、科學儀器(qi)(qi)、半導體設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)等，（2）新能(neng)(neng)源領域受益(yi)子行(xing)業，包(bao)括(kuo)光伏設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、風電(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、核(he)電(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、儲能(neng)(neng)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)等，（3）新能(neng)(neng)源汽(qi)車帶動的(de)汽(qi)車供(gong)應(ying)鏈(lian)變革(ge)下的(de)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)投資(zi)，包(bao)括(kuo)一體壓(ya)鑄、換電(dian)(dian)設(she)備(bei)(bei)(bei)(bei)、復合銅箔等。

風險提示：新(xin)冠肺(fei)炎疫情反(fan)復；政(zheng)策推進(jin)程度不(bu)及預期；制造業投資增(zeng)速不(bu)及預期；行業競(jing)爭(zheng)加劇等。

每經頭條(tiao)（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

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