每(mei)經(jing)(jing)(jing)AI快訊，據寧(ning)水資本(ben)官(guan)微，寧(ning)水發表2023半(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)度(du)觀察提(ti)到(dao)(dao)，下半(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)隨著經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟刺(ci)激政策出(chu)臺，國內經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟有(you)望緩慢復蘇(su)。銅、錫等受益于新能源需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)，供(gong)給面臨瓶頸和干擾(rao)的鋁等品(pin)種或率(lv)先(xian)迎來反轉(zhuan)機會；下半(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)國內服務(wu)業的復蘇(su)與(yu)美(mei)國經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟的衰退擔憂將共同影(ying)響油(you)脂的需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)端(duan)，而天氣(qi)也將成(cheng)為供(gong)應(ying)端(duan)的邊際調(diao)控(kong)量，成(cheng)為階段(duan)性影(ying)響油(you)脂價格(ge)(ge)的而重要因素(su)。近期(qi)(qi)飼料價格(ge)(ge)的上漲，有(you)望加(jia)速母豬(zhu)去化(hua)速度(du)，目前(qian)生(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)養(yang)殖端(duan)已經(jing)(jing)(jing)連(lian)虧5個月，生(sheng)(sheng)豬(zhu)價格(ge)(ge)也到(dao)(dao)了(le)階段(duan)低位，因集團化(hua)養(yang)殖占比提(ti)高(gao)，養(yang)殖成(cheng)本(ben)下降，豬(zhu)周期(qi)(qi)可(ke)能持(chi)續較長時(shi)間。下半(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)化(hua)工市場需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)有(you)望改善，但(dan)考(kao)慮到(dao)(dao)部(bu)分化(hua)工品(pin)高(gao)庫存，產能寬松(song)有(you)可(ke)能對沖需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)回暖(nuan)。化(hua)工品(pin)價格(ge)(ge)已反應(ying)弱復蘇(su)預期(qi)(qi)，部(bu)分化(hua)工品(pin)估(gu)值便宜(yi)，底部(bu)也比較夯實(shi)，更多考(kao)慮成(cheng)本(ben)端(duan)的影(ying)響。地產需(xu)(xu)求(qiu)不明，焦(jiao)(jiao)煤焦(jiao)(jiao)炭供(gong)給增加(jia)，下半(ban)(ban)(ban)年(nian)煤炭仍維持(chi)供(gong)給過剩格(ge)(ge)局(ju)。（每(mei)日(ri)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟新聞）