每(mei)經AI快訊，中(zhong)金公司研(yan)報表示，當前化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)諸多的(de)積極因素已經出(chu)現：第(di)一(yi)、整體化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)的(de)價格底部初現；第(di)二、成(cheng)本端的(de)壓(ya)力已經大(da)幅(fu)減輕，化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)品(pin)(pin)價差出(chu)現普遍的(de)改善；第(di)三、國內政策(ce)刺激疊加補(bu)庫助推需(xu)求向(xiang)好(hao)(hao)；第(di)四(si)、新版節能(neng)(neng)降碳(tan)使得(de)供給端產(chan)能(neng)(neng)存在(zai)明顯收縮的(de)可能(neng)(neng)。當前化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)估值水(shui)平偏(pian)低(di)。下半年(nian)PPI有望見底回(hui)升(sheng)，化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)有望取得(de)超額收益，建(jian)(jian)議超配(pei)化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)，重(zhong)點關注四(si)大(da)方向(xiang)：1）資本開(kai)支大(da)且新增項目盈利預(yu)期較好(hao)(hao)的(de)化(hua)工(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)龍(long)頭；2）供給格局向(xiang)好(hao)(hao)的(de)子行(xing)(xing)業(ye)，包括2023與(yu)2024年(nian)新增產(chan)能(neng)(neng)較少的(de)子行(xing)(xing)業(ye)以及政策(ce)驅動商品(pin)(pin)；典型(xing)的(de)如TDI、膠膜(mo)EVA/POE粒子、制(zhi)(zhi)冷(leng)劑、粘(zhan)膠短纖與(yu)PX等子行(xing)(xing)業(ye)；3）在(zai)新材料方面，我(wo)們建(jian)(jian)議關注AI帶來的(de)氟化(hua)液制(zhi)(zhi)冷(leng)、PPO、先進封裝材料等的(de)需(xu)求高增；4）受益于原材料價格回(hui)落的(de)輪胎行(xing)(xing)業(ye)。