每經AI快訊，2023年(nian)12月(yue)26日，中信(xin)證券發布研報點評(ping)中國通號（688009）。

根(gen)據公(gong)司(si)公(gong)告，中國(guo)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)號(hao)在軌道(dao)交通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)市場中標七個(ge)重要項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)，分別為五個(ge)鐵(tie)路項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)和(he)兩個(ge)城市軌道(dao)項(xiang)(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)，共計金額約(yue)(yue)30.53億(yi)元，預計實施(shi)后會對公(gong)司(si)產生積極影響。我們(men)認為，公(gong)司(si)持(chi)續(xu)獲得核心業務訂單，將(jiang)繼續(xu)鞏固穩健的(de)經營風(feng)格。按照我們(men)預測，中國(guo)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)號(hao)當前A股(gu)/H股(gu)的(de)股(gu)息率(lv)分別約(yue)(yue)為4.2%/8.2%，我們(men)認為已(yi)經具備足(zu)夠吸引力，看好(hao)中國(guo)通(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)號(hao)在高股(gu)息率(lv)投(tou)資風(feng)格下的(de)機會，維持(chi)公(gong)司(si)盈利預測，維持(chi)A股(gu)7元、H股(gu)3.5港幣的(de)目(mu)標價，上調評級(ji)至(zhi)“買入”。

▍持續(xu)(xu)(xu)中(zhong)(zhong)標(biao)重要(yao)(yao)項目，鞏固中(zhong)(zhong)長期業(ye)績基礎。根據公(gong)司公(gong)告，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)通(tong)號在軌(gui)道交通(tong)市(shi)場(chang)中(zhong)(zhong)標(biao)七個(ge)重要(yao)(yao)項目，其(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)鐵(tie)路市(shi)場(chang)五個(ge)、城市(shi)軌(gui)道市(shi)場(chang)兩個(ge)，中(zhong)(zhong)標(biao)金額總計約為(wei)(wei)(wei)人民幣30.35億元，約為(wei)(wei)(wei)公(gong)司2022年(nian)營業(ye)收入(ru)的7.55%，如項目順利實施，預計將對(dui)公(gong)司產生較(jiao)為(wei)(wei)(wei)積極的影響。我(wo)們認為(wei)(wei)(wei)，公(gong)司持續(xu)(xu)(xu)中(zhong)(zhong)標(biao)核心業(ye)務項目，疊加今年(nian)優秀的在手訂單情況(kuang)，將為(wei)(wei)(wei)公(gong)司中(zhong)(zhong)長期業(ye)績提供(gong)良好的支撐，繼續(xu)(xu)(xu)鞏固穩健的經營風格。

▍按我們預測，當前公司A股/H股股息率(lv)分別約為4.2%/8.2%。我們計算公司股息率(lv)的核(he)心假設(she)如下：

1）按(an)照我們的盈利預測，預計公司2023年(nian)凈利潤為37.25億(yi)元(yuan)；

2）參(can)考(kao)2020/2021/2022年(nian)的55.5%/55%/49.5%的股利支付率(lv)水平，我們假設2023年(nian)年(nian)度的股利支付率(lv)為50%，則每股股利為0.18元；

3）按照2023年12月(yue)25日收盤價(jia)計算，則(ze)A股(gu)/H股(gu)的股(gu)息率分別約為4.2%/8.2%。

考慮到公司(si)年度股息(xi)的(de)(de)除權日通常(chang)在(zai)每年6月中旬(xun)，我們認為當前的(de)(de)股息(xi)率(lv)(lv)具(ju)備足夠(gou)的(de)(de)吸引力，已經在(zai)平衡(heng)資金收(shou)益率(lv)(lv)和風(feng)險上具(ju)備一定優勢(shi)。

▍風險因素：中(zhong)標項(xiang)目(mu)落地及(ji)進度(du)不及(ji)預期；公司盈利(li)能力不及(ji)預期；實際股利(li)支付率低于預期等。

▍盈利(li)預(yu)(yu)測、估值與評(ping)級：我(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)持續看好中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)通(tong)號(hao)(hao)的(de)穩(wen)(wen)健經(jing)營能(neng)力(li)，近期(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)標的(de)重點(dian)項目有(you)望(wang)繼續夯實公司(si)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)業(ye)(ye)績，維持穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)的(de)盈利(li)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)。按(an)照我(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)預(yu)(yu)測，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)通(tong)號(hao)(hao)當前(qian)(qian)A股(gu)(gu)/H股(gu)(gu)的(de)股(gu)(gu)息率分別約(yue)為(wei)4.2%/8.2%，我(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)認(ren)為(wei)市場(chang)如果偏向(xiang)低(di)風險偏好，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)通(tong)號(hao)(hao)兼備(bei)高股(gu)(gu)息率和穩(wen)(wen)定(ding)經(jing)營的(de)屬性已經(jing)具備(bei)足夠吸(xi)(xi)引(yin)(yin)力(li)。我(wo)(wo)們(men)(men)看好公司(si)在高股(gu)(gu)息率風格下的(de)投資機會(hui)，維持公司(si)盈利(li)預(yu)(yu)測。A股(gu)(gu)方面(mian)，參(can)考可比(bi)公司(si)交(jiao)控科(ke)技、眾合科(ke)技、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)車(che)（其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)交(jiao)控科(ke)技、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)車(che)采(cai)用Wind一致預(yu)(yu)期(qi)，其(qi)(qi)余采(cai)用中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)信(xin)(xin)證(zheng)券研(yan)究(jiu)部預(yu)(yu)測）現價(jia)(jia)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)應2024年平均23倍PE，考慮公司(si)城市軌(gui)道(dao)交(jiao)通(tong)業(ye)(ye)務營收(shou)承(cheng)壓等因(yin)素，給(gei)予中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)通(tong)號(hao)(hao)2024年18倍PE，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)應目標價(jia)(jia)7元(yuan)；考慮中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)通(tong)號(hao)(hao)作為(wei)軌(gui)道(dao)交(jiao)通(tong)信(xin)(xin)號(hao)(hao)系統的(de)龍頭(tou)企業(ye)(ye)，經(jing)營穩(wen)(wen)健，在手(shou)訂(ding)單飽滿(man)，當前(qian)(qian)股(gu)(gu)息率具備(bei)吸(xi)(xi)引(yin)(yin)力(li)，上調(diao)至(zhi)(zhi)“買(mai)入”評(ping)級。港(gang)股(gu)(gu)方面(mian)，參(can)考可比(bi)公司(si)時代電(dian)氣、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)車(che)（均采(cai)用Wind一致預(yu)(yu)期(qi)）現價(jia)(jia)對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)應2024年平均7倍PE，考慮公司(si)在軌(gui)道(dao)交(jiao)通(tong)信(xin)(xin)號(hao)(hao)系統的(de)龍頭(tou)市場(chang)地位，給(gei)予中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)通(tong)號(hao)(hao)2024年8倍PE，對(dui)(dui)(dui)(dui)應目標價(jia)(jia)3.5港(gang)元(yuan)；考慮中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)通(tong)號(hao)(hao)作為(wei)軌(gui)道(dao)交(jiao)通(tong)信(xin)(xin)號(hao)(hao)系統的(de)龍頭(tou)企業(ye)(ye)，經(jing)營穩(wen)(wen)健，在手(shou)訂(ding)單飽滿(man)，當前(qian)(qian)股(gu)(gu)息率具備(bei)吸(xi)(xi)引(yin)(yin)力(li)，上調(diao)評(ping)級至(zhi)(zhi)“買(mai)入”。

(來源：慧博投研)

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(編輯 趙橋)