每經(jing)AI快訊(xun)，2024年1月12日，華泰證(zheng)券發(fa)布研報(bao)點評多(duo)元(yuan)金(jin)融(rong)行業。

互聯(lian)網消費(fei)金融具備競爭(zheng)力

中國消(xiao)費金融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)行業(ye)(ye)經過快速發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，規模不(bu)斷增長，經營主體(ti)不(bu)斷豐富，產品種類愈發多(duo)元(yuan)，線上化率逐步提高，監管體(ti)系(xi)逐漸(jian)完(wan)善，目前行業(ye)(ye)已經進入平(ping)(ping)穩(wen)、合規發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)新階段(duan)。其中，互聯網(wang)金融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)平(ping)(ping)臺(tai)通(tong)常借助消(xiao)費金融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)和小額貸款牌照開展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)業(ye)(ye)務，已經形(xing)成了輕/重資產模式(shi)相結合的(de)(de)商(shang)業(ye)(ye)范式(shi)，展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)現出(chu)與傳(chuan)統金融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)行業(ye)(ye)不(bu)同的(de)(de)特點，在(zai)消(xiao)費金融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)領域(yu)站(zhan)穩(wen)腳(jiao)跟。頭部(bu)互聯網(wang)金融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)平(ping)(ping)臺(tai)更在(zai)獲客、定價、風控(kong)方(fang)面展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)現出(chu)較強(qiang)的(de)(de)優勢，增長勢頭亦快于傳(chuan)統金融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)機構。目前消(xiao)費信(xin)貸整體(ti)放緩，但頭部(bu)互聯網(wang)金融(rong)(rong)(rong)(rong)平(ping)(ping)臺(tai)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)現出(chu)增長韌(ren)性，建議投資者關注合規的(de)(de)行業(ye)(ye)龍頭，奇(qi)富科技和信(xin)也科技。

互聯網(wang)消費金融的四(si)種(zhong)模(mo)式

根據是(shi)否承擔(dan)信(xin)用風(feng)險(xian)(xian)，互聯網金(jin)(jin)融(rong)平(ping)(ping)臺(tai)的(de)展(zhan)業模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)大致可分(fen)(fen)為(wei)輕資(zi)本(ben)的(de)助(zhu)貸(dai)(dai)(dai)分(fen)(fen)潤模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)和重資(zi)本(ben)模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。重資(zi)本(ben)模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)又可以分(fen)(fen)為(wei)聯合貸(dai)(dai)(dai)模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、助(zhu)貸(dai)(dai)(dai)擔(dan)保(bao)模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)、聯合貸(dai)(dai)(dai)擔(dan)保(bao)模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。業務模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)不(bu)同(tong)，互金(jin)(jin)平(ping)(ping)臺(tai)的(de)收益不(bu)同(tong)。我(wo)們認為(wei)，在(zai)較強的(de)監(jian)管(guan)下，互聯網金(jin)(jin)融(rong)平(ping)(ping)臺(tai)可能(neng)不(bu)會也沒(mei)有(you)(you)動力實(shi)現(xian)100%輕資(zi)本(ben)模(mo)(mo)式(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)。目前監(jian)管(guan)對互金(jin)(jin)平(ping)(ping)臺(tai)是(shi)否承擔(dan)信(xin)用風(feng)險(xian)(xian)并沒(mei)有(you)(you)明確規定，互聯網金(jin)(jin)融(rong)平(ping)(ping)臺(tai)持有(you)(you)小貸(dai)(dai)(dai)或消費金(jin)(jin)融(rong)牌照，一(yi)方面可以為(wei)業務帶來(lai)靈(ling)活性，另一(yi)方面能(neng)夠通過承擔(dan)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)賺取更高的(de)利潤。我(wo)們認為(wei)，長期來(lai)看行業內互金(jin)(jin)平(ping)(ping)臺(tai)承擔(dan)信(xin)用風(feng)險(xian)(xian)的(de)比例或許(xu)會在(zai)20-30%。

消費金(jin)融公(gong)司更具優勢

互聯網金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)行(xing)業的(de)放(fang)貸主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)主(zhu)要包(bao)括(kuo)：1）商業銀(yin)行(xing)；2）消(xiao)費金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)（包(bao)括(kuo)汽(qi)車金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)）；3）小(xiao)額貸款公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)；4）信托公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)。不同(tong)(tong)的(de)放(fang)貸主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)擁有(you)不同(tong)(tong)的(de)牌照，適用(yong)(yong)不同(tong)(tong)的(de)監(jian)管(guan)(guan)框(kuang)架，競(jing)爭優(you)勢(shi)存在差距(ju)。我(wo)們(men)認為，各放(fang)貸主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)優(you)勢(shi)從強到弱(ruo)依次是商業銀(yin)行(xing)、消(xiao)費金(jin)(jin)(jin)融(rong)(rong)(rong)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)、小(xiao)額貸款公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)。相比(bi)小(xiao)貸公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)，消(xiao)金(jin)(jin)(jin)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)的(de)監(jian)管(guan)(guan)主(zhu)體(ti)(ti)不同(tong)(tong)，其(qi)核心優(you)勢(shi)在于(yu)更高的(de)杠桿(gan)使用(yong)(yong)空(kong)間(jian)和更低的(de)融(rong)(rong)(rong)資成(cheng)本。我(wo)們(men)測算(suan)消(xiao)金(jin)(jin)(jin)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)杠桿(gan)倍數上(shang)限可能在12.5倍以上(shang)，小(xiao)貸公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)杠桿(gan)倍數上(shang)限約5-6倍；消(xiao)金(jin)(jin)(jin)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)融(rong)(rong)(rong)資成(cheng)本約3-4%，小(xiao)貸公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)融(rong)(rong)(rong)資成(cheng)本約6%。

消費金融公司ROE更高

消(xiao)(xiao)金(jin)(jin)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)憑借更高的(de)(de)(de)杠(gang)桿，在盈利(li)能力上或好于小貸(dai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)。相比于小貸(dai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)，消(xiao)(xiao)金(jin)(jin)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)權益乘數(shu)和ROE更高。消(xiao)(xiao)金(jin)(jin)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)ROA弱于所(suo)選(xuan)取的(de)(de)(de)小貸(dai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)樣本(ben)，或與所(suo)選(xuan)小貸(dai)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)商業(ye)模(mo)式(shi)有關(guan)。在消(xiao)(xiao)金(jin)(jin)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)內部的(de)(de)(de)比較中，業(ye)務模(mo)式(shi)是影(ying)響盈利(li)能力的(de)(de)(de)關(guan)鍵因(yin)素(su)。消(xiao)(xiao)金(jin)(jin)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)總體呈現出平穩的(de)(de)(de)發(fa)展勢態，并且監(jian)管對消(xiao)(xiao)費金(jin)(jin)融公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)更加重視，我們認(ren)為(wei)未來消(xiao)(xiao)金(jin)(jin)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)的(de)(de)(de)重要性或將提升。

消費(fei)金(jin)融行業格局基本穩(wen)定

消(xiao)(xiao)費信(xin)貸行(xing)業歷經蓬(peng)勃發展(zhan)(zhan)，當(dang)(dang)前已經進入平穩、合規(gui)發展(zhan)(zhan)的(de)(de)(de)階(jie)段。在消(xiao)(xiao)費意(yi)愿(yuan)不足和(he)信(xin)貸需求偏(pian)弱的(de)(de)(de)背(bei)景下，消(xiao)(xiao)費信(xin)貸行(xing)業規(gui)模(mo)增速(su)放緩。消(xiao)(xiao)費信(xin)貸行(xing)業結構(gou)穩中有變，銀行(xing)自營消(xiao)(xiao)費貸份額(e)在2020-22年上升(sheng)，同(tong)期消(xiao)(xiao)費金融公司的(de)(de)(de)份額(e)同(tong)樣上升(sheng)，互聯網金融平臺的(de)(de)(de)市場份額(e)在強監管下收(shou)縮，但頭部互聯網消(xiao)(xiao)費金融平臺仍(reng)展(zhan)(zhan)現出(chu)業務(wu)韌性。當(dang)(dang)前消(xiao)(xiao)費金融行(xing)業差(cha)異(yi)化競爭格局基本形成，各機構(gou)在不同(tong)的(de)(de)(de)定(ding)價區(qu)間競爭合作，服務(wu)不同(tong)質量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)客(ke)群。

風險提示：監(jian)管政(zheng)策變(bian)動、實施(shi)力度、推(tui)進速度可(ke)能(neng)對金(jin)融(rong)科技平臺的(de)短期增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)、業務模式和(he)長(chang)期增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)空(kong)間(jian)帶來較大影響；對螞蟻(yi)消(xiao)金(jin)增(zeng)(zeng)資后可(ke)支(zhi)撐(cheng)的(de)聯合貸(dai)貸(dai)款規模和(he)消(xiao)金(jin)公(gong)司杠(gang)桿倍數上(shang)限的(de)測算存(cun)在不準確的(de)風險；消(xiao)金(jin)公(gong)司和(he)小貸(dai)公(gong)司在ROE、ROA、權益乘數方面的(de)比較可(ke)能(neng)并(bing)不公(gong)允。

(來源：慧博投研)

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(編輯 曾健輝)