每經AI快訊，2024年(nian)1月14日，國信證券發布(bu)研報點評桐昆股份（601233）。

事項：

公(gong)(gong)(gong)司公(gong)(gong)(gong)告：桐昆股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份(fen)(fen)發布(bu)關于持(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)5%以上(shang)的股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)東(dong)(dong)磊(lei)鑫(xin)(xin)實(shi)業(ye)增(zeng)持(chi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份(fen)(fen)的進展公(gong)(gong)(gong)告。自2023年(nian)6月(yue)9日起(qi)12個月(yue)內，磊(lei)鑫(xin)(xin)實(shi)業(ye)計(ji)(ji)劃以自有資金(jin)或自籌(chou)資金(jin)以集中競價交(jiao)易方(fang)式增(zeng)持(chi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份(fen)(fen)，合計(ji)(ji)增(zeng)持(chi)金(jin)額(e)規模(mo)不(bu)(bu)低于人(ren)民(min)幣2億(yi)(yi)(yi)元，不(bu)(bu)超(chao)過人(ren)民(min)幣4億(yi)(yi)(yi)元。自2023年(nian)6月(yue)9日至今(jin)，磊(lei)鑫(xin)(xin)實(shi)業(ye)以集中競價交(jiao)易方(fang)式合計(ji)(ji)增(zeng)持(chi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份(fen)(fen)2411.5萬(wan)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，占公(gong)(gong)(gong)司總股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)本的1.00%，累計(ji)(ji)增(zeng)持(chi)金(jin)額(e)為3.26億(yi)(yi)(yi)元。截至2024年(nian)1月(yue)12日，磊(lei)鑫(xin)(xin)實(shi)業(ye)持(chi)有公(gong)(gong)(gong)司1.48億(yi)(yi)(yi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票，占公(gong)(gong)(gong)司總股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)本的比(bi)例為6.13%，股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份(fen)(fen)類型為無限售流通A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)及(ji)限售流通A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)。控(kong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)東(dong)(dong)桐昆控(kong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)集團及(ji)其一致行動(dong)人(ren)合計(ji)(ji)持(chi)有公(gong)(gong)(gong)司股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份(fen)(fen)9.44億(yi)(yi)(yi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，持(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)比(bi)例為39.17%。本次(ci)增(zeng)持(chi)不(bu)(bu)會導致公(gong)(gong)(gong)司控(kong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)東(dong)(dong)及(ji)實(shi)際控(kong)制人(ren)發生變化。

國信化工(gong)觀點：1）公(gong)司主營產(chan)品(pin)(pin)滌綸長絲(si)價(jia)差(cha)有望回暖。2023Q4滌綸長絲(si)價(jia)格(ge)、價(jia)差(cha)環比(bi)(bi)有所下跌(die)，但同比(bi)(bi)提升；2）滌綸長絲(si)供需與庫存(cun)結(jie)構良好(hao)。供需齊升，滌綸長絲(si)庫存(cun)同比(bi)(bi)下降，結(jie)構良好(hao)，下游(you)終端紡織品(pin)(pin)零售額提升，有望推動滌綸長絲(si)景氣(qi)度上行；3）原材料價(jia)格(ge)波動，公(gong)司未來(lai)向上游(you)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈延(yan)伸(shen)可助(zhu)力自身業(ye)(ye)務(wu)長期健康發展(zhan)(zhan)；4）考慮公(gong)司業(ye)(ye)務(wu)穩步發展(zhan)(zhan)，我們維持公(gong)司2023-2025年(nian)歸母凈利潤預測(ce)為(wei)15.9/38.2/53.7億元(yuan)(yuan)，同比(bi)(bi)增速+1124%/+140%/+40%，對(dui)應(ying)EPS為(wei)0.66/1.59/2.23元(yuan)(yuan)，當前股價(jia)對(dui)應(ying)PE為(wei)20.4/8.5/6.1X，維持“買入”評(ping)級。

風險提示

項目投(tou)產(chan)不及預(yu)期；原(yuan)材料價(jia)格上漲；下游需求不及預(yu)期等(deng)。

(來源：慧博投研)

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(編輯 曾健輝)