每(mei)經AI快訊(xun)，2024年1月19日，申(shen)萬宏(hong)源發布研報點評(ping)商業(ye)貿易(yi)行業(ye)。

本期投資提示：

2023年(nian)10/11/12月(yue)社零(ling)(ling)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比增長(chang)(chang)(chang)7.6%/10.1%/7.4%，消費(fei)穩(wen)(wen)步(bu)復(fu)蘇。（1）據(ju)(ju)國家(jia)統(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)局(ju)數據(ju)(ju)，10/11/12月(yue)社零(ling)(ling)總(zong)額(e)分別(bie)為4.3/4.3/4.4萬(wan)億(yi)元，分別(bie)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比增長(chang)(chang)(chang)7.6%/10.1%/7.4%，保(bao)持(chi)穩(wen)(wen)步(bu)復(fu)蘇態勢。（2）線上(shang)消費(fei)保(bao)持(chi)較強活力，據(ju)(ju)國家(jia)統(tong)(tong)計(ji)(ji)局(ju)數據(ju)(ju)，10/11/12月(yue)全國網(wang)上(shang)零(ling)(ling)售(shou)(shou)(shou)額(e)累計(ji)(ji)分別(bie)達到12.3/14.0/15.4萬(wan)億(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比分別(bie)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)11.2%/11.0%/11.0%；據(ju)(ju)測算10/11/12月(yue)實物商(shang)品網(wang)上(shang)零(ling)(ling)售(shou)(shou)(shou)額(e)實現1.3/1.5/1.2萬(wan)億(yi)元，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比增長(chang)(chang)(chang)4.9%/7.6%/9.4%。（3）線下零(ling)(ling)售(shou)(shou)(shou)場景在低基數下實現顯著(zhu)修復(fu)，根據(ju)(ju)中華全國商(shang)業信息中心數據(ju)(ju)，23年(nian)10-12月(yue)全國50家(jia)重點大型零(ling)(ling)售(shou)(shou)(shou)企業（以百貨(huo)業態為主）零(ling)(ling)售(shou)(shou)(shou)額(e)分別(bie)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比+10.1%、+38.6%、+42.4%。

零售電商(shang)行(xing)業(ye)重點(dian)公司：電商(shang)板塊：（1）阿(a)(a)里巴巴：Q4淘天(tian)堅(jian)定實施價格(ge)力戰(zhan)略，給予淘寶商(shang)家資源傾斜，推進生態繁榮，帶動GMV呈(cheng)現(xian)健康增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。AI賦能產品(pin)線(xian)全面升級，夯實平臺科(ke)技競爭力和生命(ming)力。預(yu)計(ji)四季度阿(a)(a)里CMR收入936億元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)2.2%。收入/經(jing)調(diao)整EBITA達(da)2586億元(yuan)(yuan)/517億元(yuan)(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.4%/基本持平。（2）京(jing)東(dong)：基于長(chang)(chang)期數(shu)智化(hua)供應鏈(lian)能力積累，雙(shuang)十一期間京(jing)東(dong)圍繞成本、效率、體驗三大維度發力，成交額、訂單(dan)量、用(yong)戶數(shu)齊創新(xin)高。預(yu)計(ji)收入同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)1%至2974億元(yuan)(yuan)，調(diao)整后(hou)凈利潤達(da)82億元(yuan)(yuan)。（3）美(mei)團：外賣方(fang)面，中小商(shang)家活力恢復，低客單(dan)訂單(dan)增(zeng)加，發力拼好飯做好低價需求承接帶動單(dan)量增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，騎手(shou)成本和單(dan)均UE改善。到(dao)店(dian)酒旅方(fang)面，堅(jian)持補貼和運營策略強化(hua)用(yong)戶心智，預(yu)計(ji)Q4GTV保(bao)持150%以上增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。預(yu)計(ji)23Q4收入同(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)21%到(dao)725億元(yuan)(yuan)，核(he)心本地商(shang)業(ye)實現(xian)經(jing)營利潤74億元(yuan)(yuan)，新(xin)業(ye)務經(jing)營虧(kui)損50億元(yuan)(yuan)。

專業零售板塊：（1）老(lao)鳳(feng)(feng)祥：23Q4金(jin)價上(shang)行(xing)黃金(jin)消(xiao)費市場景氣(qi)度上(shang)行(xing)，老(lao)鳳(feng)(feng)祥著力產品(pin)和門店(dian)品(pin)牌(pai)升級，同時著眼十四五的千(qian)億(yi)目(mu)標，全面落(luo)實三年行(xing)動(dong)計劃，推(tui)進(jin)(jin)股改(gai)進(jin)(jin)程(cheng)。預(yu)計公司23Q4收(shou)入同比增長(chang)30-35%，歸(gui)母凈利潤(run)同比增長(chang)20-25%。（2）周大生：公司深度打造品(pin)牌(pai)矩陣，推(tui)出周大生經典(dian)店(dian)，提煉持續暢銷款及品(pin)牌(pai)特色(se)系列款，線(xian)(xian)上(shang)線(xian)(xian)下雙線(xian)(xian)并(bing)進(jin)(jin)，深化渠道(dao)影響(xiang)力，搶占消(xiao)費心智，雙十一(yi)線(xian)(xian)上(shang)全渠道(dao)GMV達13.78億(yi)元。預(yu)計公司23Q4收(shou)入同比增長(chang)40-50%，歸(gui)母凈利潤(run)同比增長(chang)70-90%。

消(xiao)費服務板塊：（1）北(bei)(bei)京(jing)(jing)人(ren)力：北(bei)(bei)京(jing)(jing)人(ren)力堅持聚焦大客戶(hu)和(he)外(wai)包(bao)驅動戰略，貼合大客戶(hu)組織結構調(diao)(diao)整和(he)人(ren)才(cai)隊(dui)伍優化需要，持續拓展增(zeng)量外(wai)包(bao)業(ye)(ye)務，推動業(ye)(ye)績(ji)穩健增(zeng)長。預計置入(ru)資產北(bei)(bei)京(jing)(jing)外(wai)企23Q4收(shou)入(ru)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長10-15%，歸(gui)母凈利潤同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長0-5%。（2）科(ke)銳國際：23Q4公(gong)司(si)發(fa)(fa)布新一輪限制(zhi)性股票激勵計劃草案，在鞏(gong)固核心團(tuan)隊(dui)穩定性同(tong)(tong)時充(chong)分調(diao)(diao)動管理層和(he)核心團(tuan)隊(dui)積極性，激發(fa)(fa)組織活力。業(ye)(ye)績(ji)受短期(qi)因素擾動出現波動，看好后續季度逐季改善(shan)。預計公(gong)司(si)23Q4收(shou)入(ru)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)長5-10%，歸(gui)母凈利潤同(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)滑15-20%。

超(chao)(chao)(chao)市(shi)(shi)百(bai)貨(huo)板(ban)塊：（1）重(zhong)慶百(bai)貨(huo)：公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)混改(gai)吸并大股(gu)東提升經營(ying)(ying)(ying)效率，四大業(ye)(ye)態市(shi)(shi)場輻射能力(li)穩步改(gai)善，持股(gu)馬消(xiao)貢獻亮眼業(ye)(ye)績，布(bu)(bu)局(ju)(ju)(ju)社區折(zhe)扣業(ye)(ye)態帶來利潤(run)新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)量，預(yu)計公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)23Q4營(ying)(ying)(ying)收(shou)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)40-50%，歸(gui)母凈利潤(run)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)1.2-2.4億(yi)元(yuan)；（2）家家悅：公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)傳統商超(chao)(chao)(chao)穩步發展，試水新興業(ye)(ye)態打造(zao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)極，悅己零食單店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)模型跑通，開(kai)放(fang)加盟加速門(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)拓展，好惠(hui)星折(zhe)扣店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)11月煙臺兩(liang)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)(tong)開(kai)，折(zhe)扣化(hua)(hua)布(bu)(bu)局(ju)(ju)(ju)初現(xian)(xian)。預(yu)計公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)23Q4營(ying)(ying)(ying)業(ye)(ye)收(shou)入同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)5-10%，歸(gui)母凈利潤(run)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)0.5-0.7億(yi)元(yuan)；（3）紅(hong)旗連(lian)鎖：公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)根植于(yu)四川(chuan)，經過(guo)多(duo)年(nian)(nian)精(jing)細化(hua)(hua)運營(ying)(ying)(ying)已在大成都范圍(wei)及周邊市(shi)(shi)區形成網絡(luo)布(bu)(bu)局(ju)(ju)(ju)及品牌優勢，23年(nian)(nian)12月公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)引(yin)入四川(chuan)省(sheng)國(guo)資委，有望(wang)深化(hua)(hua)省(sheng)域資源優勢，打開(kai)業(ye)(ye)務開(kai)拓及網絡(luo)布(bu)(bu)局(ju)(ju)(ju)空間。預(yu)計公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)23Q4營(ying)(ying)(ying)業(ye)(ye)收(shou)入同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)5-10%，歸(gui)母凈利潤(run)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)0-5%。（4）天(tian)虹股(gu)份：公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)強調圍(wei)繞中高端、數字化(hua)(hua)、體(ti)驗(yan)式打造(zao)生(sheng)活超(chao)(chao)(chao)市(shi)(shi)，通過(guo)線上線下融合實(shi)現(xian)(xian)多(duo)場景觸達。預(yu)計公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)23Q4收(shou)入同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)5-10%，實(shi)現(xian)(xian)歸(gui)母凈利潤(run)0.5-0.6億(yi)元(yuan)。（5）永(yong)輝(hui)超(chao)(chao)(chao)市(shi)(shi)：公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)精(jing)選優質(zhi)門(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，提高渠(qu)道經營(ying)(ying)(ying)質(zhi)量，改(gai)善盈(ying)利能力(li)，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)設(she)“正(zheng)品折(zhe)扣店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)”，開(kai)啟折(zhe)扣化(hua)(hua)零售業(ye)(ye)態探索。預(yu)計公司(si)(si)(si)(si)(si)23Q4實(shi)現(xian)(xian)營(ying)(ying)(ying)收(shou)同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)0-5%，歸(gui)母凈利潤(run)實(shi)現(xian)(xian)0到0.5億(yi)元(yuan)。

投資分析意見(jian)：我們(men)認為，2023年全年終(zhong)端消費呈現溫(wen)和(he)復蘇(su)，歲末年初消費旺季，出(chu)行(xing)熱度攀升(sheng)，預計隨(sui)著(zhu)經濟回升(sheng)向(xiang)好基礎進一步鞏固(gu)，將促進居民消費意愿修復，帶動線(xian)上及線(xian)下消費需求增長及質(zhi)量提升(sheng)。推(tui)薦供需雙向(xiang)優化和(he)發(fa)力出(chu)海新渠道的(de)(de)電商公(gong)司：拼多(duo)多(duo)、阿里巴巴、京東、美團；充分發(fa)揮穩(wen)就業價值的(de)(de)人(ren)力資源(yuan)公(gong)司：北(bei)京人(ren)力、科銳國際(ji)；黃金產品和(he)品牌(pai)定(ding)位(wei)升(sheng)級，通(tong)過(guo)加盟提升(sheng)市占率的(de)(de)黃金珠寶(bao)公(gong)司：老鳳(feng)祥(xiang)、周大生；受益于線(xian)下消費復蘇(su)的(de)(de)百貨商超(chao)公(gong)司：重慶百貨、天(tian)虹(hong)股份、永輝超(chao)市、家家悅(yue)和(he)紅旗(qi)連鎖(suo)。

風(feng)險提(ti)示：消費需求不達預期、行(xing)業(ye)競爭(zheng)加劇、新業(ye)務不及預期等。

(來源：慧博投研)

免責聲明(ming)：本文內容與數據僅供參(can)考，不(bu)構成投資建議(yi)，使(shi)用前請核實。據此操作，風險自擔。

(編輯 曾健輝)