每經AI快訊(xun)，2024年1月(yue)20日(ri)，民生(sheng)證券發布研報點評長江(jiang)電(dian)力(li)（600900）。

事(shi)件概述(shu)：1月19日，公司(si)發布2023年業績(ji)快報，實現營業收(shou)入780.62億元(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長13.4%（經(jing)重(zhong)述(shu)）；歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤273.89億元(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長15.4%（經(jing)重(zhong)述(shu)）；扣非(fei)歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤276.40億元(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長29.2%（經(jing)重(zhong)述(shu)）。第四季度公司(si)實現營業收(shou)入202.07億元(yuan)（經(jing)重(zhong)述(shu)），同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長27.9%；歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤58.65億元(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長91.9%（經(jing)重(zhong)述(shu)）；扣非(fei)歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤61.84億元(yuan)，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長160.1%（經(jing)重(zhong)述(shu)）。

4Q23來(lai)水上(shang)(shang)下(xia)游(you)分化，電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)延續(xu)(xu)修(xiu)復(fu)趨勢：4Q23三峽水庫來(lai)水總量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)約(yue)824.85億(yi)立方米(mi)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)偏豐(feng)32.0%，三、葛、溪、向4座電(dian)站(zhan)單季度(du)(du)完(wan)成(cheng)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)499.01億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長34.7%；同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)上(shang)(shang)游(you)烏東德水庫來(lai)水總量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)約(yue)239.73億(yi)立方米(mi)，較(jiao)上(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)偏枯8.8%，烏東德電(dian)站(zhan)完(wan)成(cheng)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)81.62億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)下(xia)降7.4%；上(shang)(shang)年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期(qi)白鶴灘尚未全部投產，單季完(wan)成(cheng)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)148.63億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長39.4%。4Q23公(gong)司6座電(dian)站(zhan)合計完(wan)成(cheng)電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)729.26億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長29.0%，與單季度(du)(du)營收增速基(ji)本吻合。截至2024年1月18日(ri)，三峽水位166.58米(mi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)5.3%，周(zhou)環比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)0.1%；蓄(xu)水量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)313億(yi)立方米(mi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)25.7%，周(zhou)環比(bi)提(ti)(ti)(ti)高(gao)0.4%，1Q24電(dian)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)有望延續(xu)(xu)修(xiu)復(fu)。

抽蓄(xu)再(zai)加(jia)碼：2023年(nian)11月(yue)，公(gong)司(si)公(gong)告與三峽建(jian)工(gong)、其他國資股(gu)東按(an)照51：19：30的股(gu)比設立項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)公(gong)司(si)共(gong)同(tong)開發安(an)徽休寧抽蓄(xu)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)（120萬千(qian)瓦）；同(tong)年(nian)12月(yue)，公(gong)司(si)公(gong)告與三峽建(jian)工(gong)按(an)照49：51的股(gu)比設立項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)公(gong)司(si)共(gong)同(tong)開發四川江(jiang)油抽蓄(xu)項(xiang)(xiang)目(mu)（120萬千(qian)瓦），公(gong)司(si)抽蓄(xu)轉型進程再(zai)進一(yi)步。

投資建議：三(san)峽來水如期修(xiu)復，今春有望延續上(shang)年修(xiu)復力度，展望1Q24業績有望高(gao)增。根(gen)據(ju)電量、電價調整(zheng)對公司盈利預測，預計(ji)23/24/25年EPS分(fen)別為1.12/1.44/1.46元（前值1.21/1.45/1.46元），對應1月(yue)19日收盤價PE分(fen)別為21.0/16.3/16.1倍(bei)。參考公司歷史(shi)估值，給予公司24年20.0倍(bei)PE估值，目標(biao)價28.80元/股，維持“推薦(jian)”評級。

風險(xian)提示：1）流域來水偏枯；2）需(xu)求下滑壓制電(dian)(dian)量(liang)消納；3）市(shi)場(chang)交易(yi)電(dian)(dian)價波動；4）財稅等政策調整。

(來源：慧博投研)

免(mian)責聲明：本文(wen)內容與數據僅供參考，不構成(cheng)投資(zi)建議，使(shi)用前請核實(shi)。據此操作，風險(xian)自(zi)擔。

(編輯 曾健輝)