熊錦秋

最近，證監(jian)(jian)(jian)會(hui)就(jiu)《關于修改(gai)〈上市公(gong)(gong)司收(shou)購管理辦法〉第(di)六(liu)十(shi)二(er)條及第(di)六(liu)十(shi)三條的決(jue)定(ding)（征求(qiu)意(yi)見(jian)(jian)(jian)稿）》公(gong)(gong)開征求(qiu)意(yi)見(jian)(jian)(jian)，新的規則(ze)包括：持(chi)(chi)股(gu)30%以(yi)上的股(gu)東增持(chi)(chi)鎖定(ding)期從12個月(yue)縮減至6個月(yue)；股(gu)東持(chi)(chi)股(gu)比例達到(dao)29.9%后可在一年內繼續(xu)增持(chi)(chi)2%，而無須要約收(shou)購等。證監(jian)(jian)(jian)會(hui)20日通(tong)報征求(qiu)意(yi)見(jian)(jian)(jian)情況指出，在向社會(hui)公(gong)(gong)開征求(qiu)意(yi)見(jian)(jian)(jian)期間，共收(shou)到(dao)電子(zi)郵件12封及電話建議(yi)1個，證監(jian)(jian)(jian)會(hui)對這些均(jun)予以(yi)了答復，并據此對方案進行了完善。不過(guo)，證監(jian)(jian)(jian)會(hui)征求(qiu)意(yi)見(jian)(jian)(jian)的視野似乎有(you)點過(guo)于狹窄(zhai)，似乎提交到(dao)證監(jian)(jian)(jian)會(hui)的意(yi)見(jian)(jian)(jian)才(cai)是意(yi)見(jian)(jian)(jian)，此外的場合(he)包括市場人士在媒體(ti)發表的一些意(yi)見(jian)(jian)(jian)都不算。

筆者曾(ceng)指(zhi)出，若允許大股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)東自由增持(chi)2%股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份，股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)市尤其是股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)指(zhi)期貨(huo)根本就(jiu)沒有(you)辦法(fa)再(zai)玩(wan)下(xia)去。比如，中(zhong)石(shi)油(you)的增持(chi)行為一直在持(chi)續(xu)，到2011年三 季 度 末 ， 中(zhong) 石(shi) 油(you) 總(zong) 股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu) 本18302097.78萬股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，其中(zhong)H股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)2109890萬股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)16192207.78萬股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)；中(zhong)國(guo)石(shi)油(you)集(ji)團已(yi)經持(chi)有(you)15797209.3256萬股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，通(tong)過境外全(quan)資附屬公(gong)司持(chi)有(you)29151.8萬股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)H股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，合(he)計持(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)約(yue)占公(gong)司總(zong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)本的86.47%。

目前在市場中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)實際(ji)流通的(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)石油(you)(you)A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)非常少(shao)，刨除中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國石油(you)(you)集團(tuan)持(chi)有(you)(you)的(de)(de)A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，再(zai)刨除社(she)保基金2009年持(chi)有(you)(you)的(de)(de)劃轉A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)4億股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)（目前為限售股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)），實際(ji)留存于市的(de)(de)A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)僅約35.5億股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，占(zhan)總(zong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)本(ben)(ben)(ben)的(de)(de)1.94%。若允許(xu)大(da)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)東(dong)自由增(zeng)持(chi)減持(chi)2%股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)份，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國石油(you)(you)集團(tuan)只(zhi)需按新規履行必(bi)要的(de)(de)信息披(pi)露程序，就可將中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)石油(you)(you)所有(you)(you)實際(ji)流通A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)逐步買(mai)(mai)進，直至(zhi)最后一股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)；而且這(zhe)樣(yang)做還(huan)不違反上證所《有(you)(you)關上市公(gong)司股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)權分布(bu)問題的(de)(de)補(bu)充通知》規定的(de)(de)“公(gong)司股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)本(ben)(ben)(ben)總(zong)額超(chao)過人民幣(bi)4億元的(de)(de)，社(she)會(hui)公(gong)眾持(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)(de)比例(li)不低于10％”。這(zhe)個規定默(mo)認不管H股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)還(huan)是A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，其(qi)社(she)會(hui)公(gong)眾持(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)性質都一樣(yang)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)石油(you)(you)11.53%的(de)(de)H股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)絕大(da)部(bu)分（占(zhan)總(zong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)本(ben)(ben)(ben)10%以上）都是公(gong)眾股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)，因此，即使中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國石油(you)(you)集團(tuan)將所有(you)(you)的(de)(de)流通A股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)買(mai)(mai)完，也符合股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)權分布(bu)要求。

如果出現這種狀態，隨著(zhu)大(da)股(gu)(gu)(gu)東增(zeng)持行為，市(shi)面(mian)(mian)上(shang)(shang)中石(shi)油(you)的(de)實際流通A股(gu)(gu)(gu)越(yue)來(lai)越(yue)少，甚(shen)至(zhi)只有幾股(gu)(gu)(gu)，其(qi)A股(gu)(gu)(gu)價格還能有什(shen)(shen)么(me)意義，它還憑什(shen)(shen)么(me)繼續享有上(shang)(shang)市(shi)資(zi)格？而且，中石(shi)油(you)這樣的(de)情(qing)況并(bing)非(fei)個例(li)，其(qi)他幾大(da)國有銀(yin)行的(de)股(gu)(gu)(gu)權分布情(qing)況也大(da)致如此(ci)，流通A股(gu)(gu)(gu)比(bi)例(li)都(dou)非(fei)常小。這些大(da)塊頭在(zai)市(shi)場隨意增(zeng)持2%，就等(deng)于(yu)增(zeng)持實際流通股(gu)(gu)(gu)的(de)50%甚(shen)至(zhi)是全部，這必將(jiang)引(yin)起(qi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)指(zhi)(zhi)巨(ju)幅波動，股(gu)(gu)(gu)指(zhi)(zhi)期貨投資(zi)者將(jiang)隨時面(mian)(mian)臨滅(mie)頂之災。

另外，大(da)(da)股(gu)(gu)東(dong)(dong)增持(chi)(chi)固然(ran)有(you)利于(yu)拉(la)抬市場(chang)，這(zhe)(zhe)迎合有(you)關(guan)方面救市需(xu)求，但(dan)誰也不能(neng)保(bao)證大(da)(da)股(gu)(gu)東(dong)(dong)只增持(chi)(chi)、不減持(chi)(chi)，通(tong)過股(gu)(gu)權分置改革(ge)，大(da)(da)股(gu)(gu)東(dong)(dong)原來持(chi)(chi)股(gu)(gu)也多已(yi)解禁(jin)，大(da)(da)股(gu)(gu)東(dong)(dong)完全可(ke)以借(jie)增持(chi)(chi)拉(la)抬股(gu)(gu)價(jia)，然(ran)后趁高位減持(chi)(chi)所(suo)增持(chi)(chi)的股(gu)(gu)份(fen)，甚至(zhi)變本加厲將解禁(jin)股(gu)(gu)也減持(chi)(chi)。目(mu)前新規允許增持(chi)(chi)股(gu)(gu)在6個月后隨(sui)便(bian)減持(chi)(chi)，是否應該(gai)與增持(chi)(chi)一樣，每減持(chi)(chi)1%就需(xu)要予(yu)以信息披露并在一些時(shi)間節點適時(shi)停(ting)止減持(chi)(chi)，同(tong)(tong)時(shi)對大(da)(da)股(gu)(gu)東(dong)(dong)可(ke)能(neng)伴隨(sui)的解禁(jin)股(gu)(gu)減持(chi)(chi)行為予(yu)以限(xian)制，這(zhe)(zhe)些都(dou)沒有(you)做出嚴格(ge)規定，這(zhe)(zhe)同(tong)(tong)樣可(ke)能(neng)引發市場(chang)風(feng)險。

征(zheng)求意見(jian)是(shi)要通過吸(xi)納社會(hui)的(de)(de)(de)諸(zhu)多有益觀(guan)點(dian)，將準備出(chu)臺的(de)(de)(de)制度做到盡善盡美、爭(zheng)取出(chu)現最少的(de)(de)(de)漏(lou)洞(dong)。有關部門在征(zheng)求意見(jian)時，不(bu)能(neng)(neng)只注重形式。就此而言，證監會(hui)要修改規則(ze)鼓勵大(da)(da)股(gu)東(dong)增(zeng)(zeng)持股(gu)份，也應該(gai)(gai)更廣泛(fan)地(di)吸(xi)納意見(jian)，而不(bu)是(shi)收到郵件或(huo)者接(jie)到電話才算是(shi)建議，網絡的(de)(de)(de)評論、專家學(xue)者在媒體上發(fa)表的(de)(de)(de)言論，也應該(gai)(gai)被關注。而從目前的(de)(de)(de)情況來看，面(mian)對大(da)(da)股(gu)東(dong)自(zi)由(you)增(zeng)(zeng)持2%可能(neng)(neng)引發(fa)的(de)(de)(de)市場巨(ju)大(da)(da)風(feng)險，雖然已經有不(bu)少人(ren)指出(chu)，但(dan)是(shi)有關部門可能(neng)(neng)還沒有意識(shi)到。萬一市場真由(you)此出(chu)現大(da)(da)的(de)(de)(de)動蕩，到時該(gai)(gai)追究(jiu)誰的(de)(de)(de)責任呢(ni)？