⊙姜韌○編輯楊曉坤

A股(gu)(gu)剛從(cong)年中(zhong)(zhong)調(diao)整行(xing)(xing)情(qing)中(zhong)(zhong)復蘇，勢(shi)必有不少投資者(zhe)仍驚魂未定。在此背景下，新股(gu)(gu)IPO恢(hui)復發行(xing)(xing)在即(ji)，投資者(zhe)對于后市趨勢(shi)仍然會產(chan)生(sheng)分歧。但根據(ju)A股(gu)(gu)市場目前(qian)估值(zhi)和市值(zhi)狀況，以(yi)及(ji)新股(gu)(gu)配售制度的修改，新股(gu)(gu)IPO恢(hui)復不會對A股(gu)(gu)跨年行(xing)(xing)情(qing)產(chan)生(sheng)根本(ben)性掣肘。

首(shou)先，我們可(ke)以觀察歷史上全球(qiu)各主要(yao)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)新(xin)股(gu)(gu)(gu)IPO對市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)趨勢的影響(xiang)，與股(gu)(gu)(gu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)整體稱重基(ji)于估值(zhi)和市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值(zhi)的狀況(kuang)一致，新(xin)股(gu)(gu)(gu)IPO對任何市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)的牛(niu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)趨勢并不產(chan)生掣肘(zhou)，相反(fan)新(xin)股(gu)(gu)(gu)大量(liang)發行階段，一定是該(gai)(gai)國或(huo)該(gai)(gai)地區股(gu)(gu)(gu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)處于牛(niu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)上升狀態，投資(zi)者可(ke)以選取美股(gu)(gu)(gu)、港股(gu)(gu)(gu)和A股(gu)(gu)(gu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)這三大最具可(ke)比性的市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)進(jin)行統計(ji)觀察。

新(xin)(xin)(xin)股(gu)(gu)(gu)對(dui)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)產(chan)生負面影(ying)響一(yi)定是產(chan)生在牛(niu)(niu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)末期，此時(shi)(shi)大(da)型(xing)藍(lan)籌股(gu)(gu)(gu)或熱門股(gu)(gu)(gu)高(gao)(gao)溢價融資上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)是對(dui)牛(niu)(niu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)產(chan)生的壓(ya)力相當于(yu)最后一(yi)根稻草，而牛(niu)(niu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)泡沫和新(xin)(xin)(xin)股(gu)(gu)(gu)高(gao)(gao)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)高(gao)(gao)溢價有著極(ji)其(qi)密切(qie)的聯系，因此新(xin)(xin)(xin)股(gu)(gu)(gu)對(dui)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)沖擊的判斷(duan)同樣基于(yu)估值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)和市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。例如(ru)：2002年前(qian)后中(zhong)石(shi)(shi)油H股(gu)(gu)(gu)發(fa)行時(shi)(shi)，港股(gu)(gu)(gu)處于(yu)熊市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)末期的低迷狀態(tai)，中(zhong)石(shi)(shi)油H股(gu)(gu)(gu)發(fa)行后對(dui)恒(heng)生國企指(zhi)(zhi)數持續走牛(niu)(niu)功不可沒(mei)；而2007年中(zhong)石(shi)(shi)油A股(gu)(gu)(gu)在A股(gu)(gu)(gu)牛(niu)(niu)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)巔峰期，參考當時(shi)(shi)A股(gu)(gu)(gu)估值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)高(gao)(gao)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)高(gao)(gao)溢價回歸，結果至今A股(gu)(gu)(gu)投(tou)資者難以解套。類似案(an)例同樣適用于(yu)美(mei)股(gu)(gu)(gu)，以近幾年臉(lian)譜和阿里(li)巴巴新(xin)(xin)(xin)股(gu)(gu)(gu)IPO發(fa)行為例，這(zhe)兩只刷新(xin)(xin)(xin)融資記錄的互聯網龍頭股(gu)(gu)(gu)IPO上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)前(qian)后，都(dou)廣受全球投(tou)資者追捧，但上(shang)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)后對(dui)美(mei)股(gu)(gu)(gu)指(zhi)(zhi)數都(dou)產(chan)生了階(jie)段性壓(ya)力。可見新(xin)(xin)(xin)股(gu)(gu)(gu)IPO對(dui)市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)影(ying)響的趨(qu)勢規(gui)律，無論海內外市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)場(chang)，都(dou)取(qu)決(jue)于(yu)大(da)型(xing)IPO活動的估值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)和市(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)稱重狀況。

當(dang)你對全球市(shi)場(chang)新(xin)股IPO活動(dong)進行(xing)了歷(li)史數據統計回顧之(zhi)后(hou)，再來分析(xi)這次(ci)新(xin)股IPO恢(hui)復發行(xing)，就(jiu)會(hui)理解現在恢(hui)復新(xin)股IPO發行(xing)，絕不(bu)會(hui)對牛市(shi)行(xing)情產生根本性掣(che)肘，相反隨(sui)著新(xin)股IPO活動(dong)的恢(hui)復，市(shi)場(chang)會(hui)更趨于(yu)活躍(yue)。原因如下：今年滬指(zhi)5178點和(he)2007年滬指(zhi)6124點階段(duan)，A股估(gu)值和(he)市(shi)值稱重有著極(ji)大(da)區(qu)別；另外，新(xin)股配售制度修改為“先中簽后(hou)繳款”，間接增厚了藍籌(chou)股的投資價值。

滬指6124點之(zhi)際(ji)，市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)整體估(gu)(gu)值超過(guo)70倍PE，藍(lan)(lan)籌股(gu)估(gu)(gu)值接近60倍PE，因(yin)此(ci)(ci)當時(shi)新股(gu)IPO發行和上市(shi)(shi)泡沫同步泛濫(lan)，此(ci)(ci)時(shi)遭遇流動性瞬間(jian)收(shou)緊影(ying)響，市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)因(yin)此(ci)(ci)由牛轉(zhuan)熊。今年滬指5178點，A股(gu)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)泡沫集(ji)中(zhong)在中(zhong)小創股(gu)票，藍(lan)(lan)籌股(gu)估(gu)(gu)值始終(zhong)沒(mei)有超過(guo)美股(gu)市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)。參考歷史統計數(shu)據，只有當新股(gu)IPO數(shu)據出現(xian)估(gu)(gu)值和市(shi)(shi)值雙高之(zhi)際(ji)，新股(gu)IPO才會(hui)對市(shi)(shi)場(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)產生(sheng)巨大負(fu)面(mian)影(ying)響，現(xian)在顯然距離雙高峰值甚遠(yuan)。

新股(gu)(gu)配售制度修改為“先中簽(qian)后繳款”，這會(hui)提高投資(zi)者配置低價(jia)低估值(zhi)藍(lan)籌(chou)股(gu)(gu)的興趣，而且藍(lan)籌(chou)股(gu)(gu)指數上升(sheng)趨勢平(ping)緩，這有(you)利于(yu)慢牛趨勢展(zhan)開，因此投資(zi)者可以基于(yu)價(jia)值(zhi)投資(zi)理念備戰跨年度行情。