每經(jing)(jing)AI快(kuai)訊，國泰君安策(ce)略團隊認(ren)為，海(hai)外(wai)(wai)(wai)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)形勢不容(rong)樂觀，但(dan)A股(gu)(gu)(gu)有(you)望走出相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)獨立的行情。一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)，當前A股(gu)(gu)(gu)市(shi)場呈現“人心兩端走”特(te)征(zheng)，高風(feng)險(xian)偏(pian)好投(tou)(tou)資者買入(ru)高風(feng)險(xian)特(te)征(zheng)的科(ke)技成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)長(chang)股(gu)(gu)(gu)，低風(feng)險(xian)特(te)征(zheng)的投(tou)(tou)資者賣出與經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)周(zhou)期相(xiang)關的價值(zhi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)，因(yin)此A股(gu)(gu)(gu)走出成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)長(chang)股(gu)(gu)(gu)漲而價值(zhi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)跌的特(te)征(zheng)。同時近(jin)年來A股(gu)(gu)(gu)消費、醫(yi)藥及科(ke)技成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)長(chang)市(shi)值(zhi)占比提(ti)升(sheng)，因(yin)此指數對(dui)(dui)(dui)海(hai)外(wai)(wai)(wai)因(yin)素相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)脫(tuo)敏。另一(yi)方(fang)(fang)面(mian)，中(zhong)美經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)與金(jin)融周(zhou)期開始錯位，中(zhong)國經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)修復與政(zheng)策(ce)寬(kuan)松(song)成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為A股(gu)(gu)(gu)重要支撐。此外(wai)(wai)(wai)，海(hai)外(wai)(wai)(wai)衰退隱憂下，鷹派(pai)貨幣政(zheng)策(ce)立場有(you)望放松(song)，盈利周(zhou)期率先改(gai)善的中(zhong)國資產將成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)為內外(wai)(wai)(wai)投(tou)(tou)資者的新(xin)共識。往(wang)后看，我們認(ren)為接下來并(bing)非從成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)長(chang)切換到價值(zhi)，風(feng)格分化(hua)還(huan)會延續，建議(yi)在回(hui)調中(zhong)選擇與經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)、政(zheng)策(ce)、海(hai)外(wai)(wai)(wai)流動性相(xiang)關度較低且(qie)具有(you)相(xiang)對(dui)(dui)(dui)獨立景(jing)氣的成(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)長(chang)板塊。