每經AI快訊，中國銀河10月11日發布研報稱：給予社會服務行業推薦（維持）評級。

板塊表(biao)現：本周社服行(xing)業(ye)漲(zhang)跌幅(fu)為(wei)-0.4%，在所有31個行(xing)業(ye)中(zhong)周漲(zhang)跌幅(fu)排名第(di)5位。各細(xi)分板塊漲(zhang)跌幅(fu)分別為(wei)：酒店餐飲(yin)+2.2%，專(zhuan)業(ye)服務-0.1%，旅游及(ji)景區-1.5%，教(jiao)育-3.7%。

重點公告&事件：（1）國(guo)(guo)慶假期(qi)(qi)(qi)全(quan)國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)旅(lv)(lv)游(you)出(chu)(chu)游(you)4.22億人(ren)次(ci)(ci)，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)旅(lv)(lv)游(you)收入2872.1億元(yuan)；（2）旅(lv)(lv)游(you)節(jie)拉動(dong)上海(hai)(hai)地(di)區(qu)文旅(lv)(lv)全(quan)量(liang)(liang)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)，交易總(zong)金(jin)額超743億元(yuan)。核心觀(guan)點：免(mian)稅(shui)：前三日銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)邊(bian)際(ji)向好(hao)，銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)額降(jiang)幅低(di)于機場(chang)客(ke)流(liu)。海(hai)(hai)南(nan)(nan)省商務廳10月(yue)3日提供的(de)(de)(de)統(tong)計數據(ju)顯示(shi)，9月(yue)30日至(zhi)10月(yue)2日，海(hai)(hai)南(nan)(nan)10家離島(dao)免(mian)稅(shui)店(dian)(dian)(dian)三天(tian)進(jin)(jin)店(dian)(dian)(dian)人(ren)數近(jin)15萬人(ren)次(ci)(ci)，銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)額超6.3億元(yuan)，日均(jun)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)額達2.1億元(yuan)，同(tong)比2021年(nian)下(xia)降(jiang)18%，降(jiang)幅好(hao)于機場(chang)客(ke)流(liu)。但受(shou)三亞3日出(chu)(chu)現病例影響，中(zhong)免(mian)三亞國(guo)(guo)際(ji)免(mian)稅(shui)城二(er)期(qi)(qi)(qi)閉店(dian)(dian)(dian)至(zhi)10月(yue)6日重新開(kai)放，預計對剩(sheng)余(yu)假期(qi)(qi)(qi)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)恢(hui)復(fu)產(chan)生影響。整體而言，今年(nian)1月(yue)以來疫(yi)情平穩期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)，離島(dao)免(mian)稅(shui)銷(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)(shou)(shou)恢(hui)復(fu)均(jun)較(jiao)為迅速，反映(ying)免(mian)稅(shui)業(ye)態在當(dang)前消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)環境下(xia)仍(reng)是(shi)最具吸引力的(de)(de)(de)渠道之一，疫(yi)后修復(fu)彈(dan)性可(ke)期(qi)(qi)(qi)。推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)龍(long)(long)頭(tou)(tou)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)中(zhong)免(mian)，建(jian)(jian)議關(guan)注海(hai)(hai)汽集團(tuan)（海(hai)(hai)旅(lv)(lv)免(mian)稅(shui)）、海(hai)(hai)南(nan)(nan)發展（海(hai)(hai)發控(kong)）。餐(can)飲：長假期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)居(ju)民(min)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)以本地(di)本地(di)為主，餐(can)飲邊(bian)際(ji)復(fu)蘇(su)(su)。美團(tuan)統(tong)計的(de)(de)(de)數據(ju)顯示(shi)，“十一”黃(huang)金(jin)周(zhou)本地(di)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)占比77.4%，長假期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)本地(di)業(ye)態日均(jun)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)額同(tong)比2019年(nian)黃(huang)金(jin)周(zhou)增長52%。上海(hai)(hai)7天(tian)假期(qi)(qi)(qi)內(nei)餐(can)飲線下(xia)消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)69.6億元(yuan)/同(tong)比+18.0%。重點推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)剛需品類和一線品牌下(xia)沉市場(chang)的(de)(de)(de)開(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)進(jin)(jin)展，推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)九(jiu)毛九(jiu)、海(hai)(hai)倫司、奈雪的(de)(de)(de)茶、同(tong)慶樓。酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)：海(hai)(hai)外(wai)(wai)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)復(fu)蘇(su)(su)延續，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)等待政(zheng)策(ce)企(qi)穩。受(shou)益(yi)于出(chu)(chu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)管控(kong)放松各頭(tou)(tou)部酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)業(ye)績均(jun)明顯復(fu)蘇(su)(su)。映(ying)射至(zhi)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)，我們認為短期(qi)(qi)(qi)主要矛盾(dun)仍(reng)在出(chu)(chu)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)政(zheng)策(ce)，中(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)(qi)看國(guo)(guo)內(nei)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)供需、競爭格局(ju)清晰，頭(tou)(tou)部酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)集團(tuan)受(shou)益(yi)于供給出(chu)(chu)清+輕資(zi)產(chan)擴張+中(zhong)高端升級，仍(reng)將是(shi)疫(yi)后行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)復(fu)蘇(su)(su)最大(da)受(shou)益(yi)者，推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)(jian)(jian)(jian)錦江酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)/首旅(lv)(lv)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)/華(hua)住集團(tuan)-S/君(jun)亭酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)。出(chu)(chu)境游(you)：香(xiang)(xiang)港10月(yue)中(zhong)旬出(chu)(chu)入境政(zheng)策(ce)有望(wang)進(jin)(jin)一步放松。建(jian)(jian)議關(guan)注國(guo)(guo)內(nei)與香(xiang)(xiang)港、澳門通關(guan)及(ji)恢(hui)復(fu)旅(lv)(lv)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)社(she)活(huo)動(dong)進(jin)(jin)展。建(jian)(jian)議關(guan)注眾信旅(lv)(lv)游(you)（國(guo)(guo)內(nei)出(chu)(chu)境游(you)旅(lv)(lv)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)社(she)龍(long)(long)頭(tou)(tou)）、米(mi)奧會展（國(guo)(guo)內(nei)海(hai)(hai)外(wai)(wai)自辦展會龍(long)(long)頭(tou)(tou)）。旅(lv)(lv)游(you)&新消(xiao)費(fei)(fei)(fei)(fei)：建(jian)(jian)議關(guan)注智(zhi)(zhi)能健(jian)身鏡賽道，供需推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)下(xia)國(guo)(guo)內(nei)智(zhi)(zhi)能健(jian)身鏡滲透率有望(wang)實(shi)現從(cong)0到1突破，建(jian)(jian)議關(guan)注頭(tou)(tou)部智(zhi)(zhi)能健(jian)身鏡品牌ODM供應商康(kang)冠(guan)科(ke)技。此外(wai)(wai)，建(jian)(jian)議關(guan)注疫(yi)后增量(liang)(liang)空間(jian)較(jiao)大(da)的(de)(de)(de)天(tian)目湖，以及(ji)露營(ying)裝備龍(long)(long)頭(tou)(tou)牧(mu)高笛。

風險提(ti)示(shi)：疫情、自(zi)然災害(hai)突(tu)發性因(yin)素；宏觀經濟下行風險；行業競爭格局惡化風險。

每(mei)經(jing)頭(tou)條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王曉波)

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