每經AI快訊，中國銀河11月15日發布研報稱：給予煤炭推薦（維持）評級。

事件：統計局發布2022年10月煤炭生產數(shu)據(ju)。

10月(yue)(yue)國內原(yuan)(yuan)煤(mei)產量(liang)增速環比(bi)(bi)9月(yue)(yue)回落，進口(kou)煤(mei)增速環比(bi)(bi)下降(jiang)(jiang)：根據統計局公布的2022年10月(yue)(yue)煤(mei)炭生產數據，10月(yue)(yue)原(yuan)(yuan)煤(mei)單月(yue)(yue)產量(liang)37009萬噸，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上漲(zhang)1.2%，增速較(jiao)9月(yue)(yue)-11.1PCT，環比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)4.3%，1-10月(yue)(yue)累(lei)(lei)計原(yuan)(yuan)煤(mei)產量(liang)368540萬噸，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)上漲(zhang)10%，漲(zhang)幅較(jiao)1-9月(yue)(yue)收窄1.2PCT，增產保供(gong)政(zheng)策持續發力，但受疫情等因素(su)影響，原(yuan)(yuan)煤(mei)釋放(fang)保持較(jiao)平緩趨勢(shi)；2022年1-10月(yue)(yue)，煤(mei)及褐煤(mei)進口(kou)量(liang)累(lei)(lei)計同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下滑10.5%，降(jiang)(jiang)幅較(jiao)1-9月(yue)(yue)收窄2.2pct，10月(yue)(yue)進口(kou)煤(mei)炭2918.2萬噸，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增8.3%（上月(yue)(yue)為0.5%），環比(bi)(bi)降(jiang)(jiang)11.7%，我們判斷(duan)年末受客(ke)觀因素(su)影響，進口(kou)端依(yi)然會維持偏緊狀態。

10月(yue)(yue)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)放(fang)緩(huan)，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)降(jiang)幅收(shou)窄(zhai)，核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)由降(jiang)轉(zhuan)升，風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保持較(jiao)(jiao)快增(zeng)(zeng)長：10月(yue)(yue)總(zong)體發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)上漲1.3%，較(jiao)(jiao)9月(yue)(yue)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)提高(gao)1.7PCT，由負(fu)轉(zhuan)正，環(huan)比(bi)下(xia)滑3.2%；1-10月(yue)(yue)總(zong)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)2.2%，與1-9月(yue)(yue)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)持平，顯(xian)示了需求端10月(yue)(yue)份環(huan)比(bi)略(lve)微偏弱(ruo)。其中，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)10月(yue)(yue)同(tong)比(bi)上漲3.2%（上月(yue)(yue)為6.1%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)放(fang)緩(huan)2.9PCT），環(huan)比(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)8%，1-10月(yue)(yue)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)累計(ji)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)0.8%；水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/太(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)10月(yue)(yue)同(tong)比(bi)-17.7%/7.4%/19.2%/24.7%，較(jiao)(jiao)9月(yue)(yue)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)分別+12.3/+10.1/-6.6/+5.8PCT，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)降(jiang)幅收(shou)窄(zhai)，核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)由負(fu)轉(zhuan)正，風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)略(lve)有放(fang)緩(huan)，太(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)持續高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)長；從(cong)環(huan)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)來(lai)看，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/太(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)10月(yue)(yue)份環(huan)比(bi)+0.4%/+11.3%/28.8%/-5.8%，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)略(lve)有改(gai)善(shan)，核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)環(huan)比(bi)改(gai)善(shan)程度較(jiao)(jiao)明顯(xian)，太(tai)(tai)(tai)(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)情況環(huan)比(bi)9月(yue)(yue)略(lve)有下(xia)降(jiang)。

鋼(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)仍顯示同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)修復(fu)，建材需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)持續(xu)低(di)迷，隨著(zhu)地(di)產(chan)鏈筑底(di)回升(sheng)，建材需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)有(you)望迎來(lai)(lai)拐點：10月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)粗鋼(gang)(gang)產(chan)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)增11%，較(jiao)(jiao)9月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)增速(su)下滑(hua)6.6PCT，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)-8.3%，1-10月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)累(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)粗鋼(gang)(gang)產(chan)量(liang)-2.2%，降幅(fu)較(jiao)(jiao)1-9月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)收窄1.2PCT;10月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)生鐵(tie)產(chan)量(liang)+11.9%（上(shang)月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)為13%），環(huan)(huan)比(bi)-4.2%，1-10月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)-1.2%，降幅(fu)較(jiao)(jiao)1-9月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)收窄1.3PCT；可以看出，鋼(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)修復(fu)程(cheng)度仍較(jiao)(jiao)好，但環(huan)(huan)比(bi)有(you)所下滑(hua)，結合粗鋼(gang)(gang)產(chan)量(liang)壓(ya)降政(zheng)策仍制約生產(chan)端(duan)(duan)，預計(ji)(ji)(ji)鋼(gang)(gang)鐵(tie)未來(lai)(lai)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)邊(bian)際(ji)改善；10月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)水(shui)(shui)泥(ni)產(chan)量(liang)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)+0.4%，增速(su)較(jiao)(jiao)9月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)-0.6PCT，環(huan)(huan)比(bi)-2.3%，1-10月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)水(shui)(shui)泥(ni)產(chan)量(liang)累(lei)計(ji)(ji)(ji)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)-11.3%，顯示建材端(duan)(duan)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)仍較(jiao)(jiao)為低(di)迷，隨著(zhu)地(di)產(chan)產(chan)業鏈筑底(di)修復(fu)，建材端(duan)(duan)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)大概率明年(nian)一季(ji)度將回暖；預計(ji)(ji)(ji)今冬明春非電用(yong)(yong)煤(mei)需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)仍有(you)望持續(xu)對煤(mei)炭需(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)起到提振作用(yong)(yong)。

電(dian)煤日耗(hao)(hao)在10月(yue)基礎上近(jin)期均有回(hui)升：截至11月(yue)上旬，全國統調電(dian)廠(chang)/全國重點電(dian)廠(chang)/南方八省電(dian)廠(chang)/樣本區域電(dian)廠(chang)的煤炭日耗(hao)(hao)分別(bie)為750/440.4/172.7/152.9萬噸(dun)，多處于各指標年內(nei)較低(di)水平(ping)，但在10月(yue)基礎上近(jin)期均有所回(hui)升，顯示了電(dian)力需求環比修復。

11月(yue)港(gang)(gang)口(kou)煤(mei)炭庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)低(di)位(wei)回升，電(dian)(dian)廠庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)處于高(gao)(gao)位(wei)：港(gang)(gang)口(kou)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)方面，截(jie)至11月(yue)14日(ri)，秦皇(huang)島港(gang)(gang)/CCTD主流港(gang)(gang)口(kou)煤(mei)炭庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)分(fen)別為750/480萬(wan)噸，表現為年(nian)內(nei)低(di)位(wei)回升；電(dian)(dian)廠庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)方面，全國統(tong)調電(dian)(dian)廠/全國重點電(dian)(dian)廠/南方八(ba)省電(dian)(dian)廠/樣本區域電(dian)(dian)廠煤(mei)炭庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)截(jie)至11月(yue)10日(ri)，分(fen)別為17000/10355/3175/2750萬(wan)噸，均位(wei)于年(nian)內(nei)高(gao)(gao)位(wei)；綜合，港(gang)(gang)口(kou)庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)低(di)位(wei)回升，電(dian)(dian)廠庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)位(wei)于高(gao)(gao)位(wei)，煤(mei)炭近(jin)期仍在累庫(ku)(ku)(ku)階段，進入迎峰度冬(dong)旺(wang)季，預計庫(ku)(ku)(ku)存(cun)壓(ya)力(li)下一階段將有所緩解。

投資(zi)建(jian)議：根(gen)據10月煤(mei)炭生產(chan)數(shu)據，供(gong)給端(duan)，原(yuan)煤(mei)產(chan)地端(duan)/進口端(duan)均環比回(hui)落，原(yuan)煤(mei)釋放保(bao)持平穩趨勢；庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)端(duan)，11月港口煤(mei)炭庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)低(di)位(wei)回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠(chang)庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)處(chu)于高位(wei)，煤(mei)炭近期仍在累庫(ku)階(jie)段，進入(ru)迎峰度(du)冬(dong)旺季，預計庫(ku)存(cun)(cun)壓力下一階(jie)段將有(you)所緩(huan)解。需(xu)求(qiu)端(duan)，發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)數(shu)據顯示，10月火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)速放緩(huan)，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)降幅收(shou)窄，核電(dian)(dian)(dian)由降轉升(sheng)(sheng)，風電(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)保(bao)持較快增(zeng)長；下游非電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)需(xu)求(qiu)方面，鋼鐵(tie)仍顯示同(tong)比修復(fu)，建(jian)材需(xu)求(qiu)持續(xu)低(di)迷(mi)，隨著地產(chan)鏈筑底回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)，建(jian)材需(xu)求(qiu)有(you)望(wang)迎來拐(guai)點。電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)日耗指標(biao)多(duo)處(chu)于年內較低(di)水平，但均在10月基礎(chu)上有(you)所回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)，總(zong)體供(gong)需(xu)格局仍處(chu)于基本平衡狀(zhuang)態。投資(zi)標(biao)的方面，我(wo)們建(jian)議把握政策大(da)方向(xiang)，長協煤(mei)價(jia)穩中(zhong)有(you)升(sheng)(sheng)，原(yuan)料用煤(mei)額度(du)適度(du)釋放，煤(mei)炭板塊仍具有(you)較高配置價(jia)值。個(ge)股推薦中(zhong)國神華（601088）、陜(shan)西(xi)(xi)煤(mei)業（601225）、中(zhong)煤(mei)能(neng)源（601898）、山西(xi)(xi)焦煤(mei)（000983）。

風(feng)險提示：政策調(diao)控導致煤價大幅(fu)下跌的風(feng)險、國企改革不及(ji)預(yu)期的風(feng)險。

每(mei)經(jing)頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王曉波)

免責聲明(ming)：本(ben)文內容與數據僅供(gong)參(can)考，不構成投資建議，使(shi)用前(qian)請核實。據此操作(zuo)，風險自擔。