每經(jing)AI快(kuai)訊(xun)，中國銀河01月09日發布研報稱：給予公用事推薦（維持）評級。

事件：1月6日，國(guo)家能源局發布關于公(gong)開征求《新(xin)型電力系統發展(zhan)藍皮書（征求意(yi)見稿）》意(yi)見的通知。

明確新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)建設“進度條”，當前處于加速轉型(xing)(xing)期(qi)藍皮書提出新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)“三步(bu)走”發展路徑(jing)，即(ji)加速轉型(xing)(xing)期(qi)（當前至2030年(nian)）、總體形成(cheng)期(qi)（2030年(nian)至2045年(nian)）、鞏固完善(shan)期(qi)（2045年(nian)至2060年(nian)）。在當前至2030年(nian)的(de)加速轉型(xing)(xing)期(qi)，新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)發展以支(zhi)(zhi)撐(cheng)實現碳(tan)達峰為(wei)主要目標(biao)，加速推進清潔低碳(tan)化(hua)轉型(xing)(xing)。從電(dian)(dian)(dian)源端(duan)來看，新(xin)(xin)(xin)能(neng)源逐步(bu)成(cheng)為(wei)裝機及發電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)增量(liang)(liang)主體，但(dan)煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)將繼續發揮主力(li)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源的(de)基礎保(bao)障作用。此外，儲能(neng)作為(wei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)系(xi)統(tong)調(diao)節能(neng)力(li)的(de)重要支(zhi)(zhi)撐(cheng)，現階段以滿足系(xi)統(tong)日內(nei)平衡調(diao)節需求為(wei)主，抽(chou)水蓄能(neng)和(he)新(xin)(xin)(xin)型(xing)(xing)儲能(neng)多元化(hua)發展。

火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保供(gong)作用(yong)仍然重要(yao)，容量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)及(ji)(ji)(ji)長(chang)(chang)(chang)協煤(mei)(mei)履約促進盈利(li)(li)藍皮(pi)書中強調了現(xian)階段煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保供(gong)的重要(yao)作用(yong)，并(bing)提(ti)出(chu)(chu)2030年前煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機和發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)仍將(jiang)適(shi)度增長(chang)(chang)(chang)。進入(ru)十(shi)四五(wu)，火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投(tou)(tou)資已(yi)經重回正(zheng)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)且增速明顯加快，2022年1-11月火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)投(tou)(tou)資736億元(yuan)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)增長(chang)(chang)(chang)38.3%。根據電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)規(gui)總院預測以(yi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)國家(jia)能源局規(gui)劃，預計(ji)2022-2024年新(xin)投(tou)(tou)產煤(mei)(mei)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)140GW，十(shi)四五(wu)期(qi)間(jian)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)靈活性(xing)改造(zao)200GW。為體(ti)現(xian)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)保供(gong)價(jia)值，容量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)或將(jiang)加速推進，2022年以(yi)來(lai)山東、甘肅、云南(nan)已(yi)制定容量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)補償政策。《2023年電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)(mei)中長(chang)(chang)(chang)期(qi)合同(tong)(tong)簽約履約工作方案》有望推動長(chang)(chang)(chang)協比(bi)例提(ti)升以(yi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)價(jia)格下(xia)降。我們預計(ji)容量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)出(chu)(chu)臺以(yi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)長(chang)(chang)(chang)協煤(mei)(mei)價(jia)下(xia)降有望明顯改善(shan)火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)盈利(li)(li)能力(li)，推動火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)新(xin)增裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機以(yi)及(ji)(ji)(ji)靈活性(xing)改造(zao)加速。

新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)已(yi)成(cheng)為裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增長主(zhu)體，后(hou)續增長空間(jian)廣(guang)闊(kuo)“雙(shuang)碳”目標(biao)驅(qu)動能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)清潔化(hua)轉型。十四五以來新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)已(yi)成(cheng)為裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)增量主(zhu)體。2022年1-11月新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)新(xin)(xin)(xin)增裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)總(zong)共88.2GW，占(zhan)(zhan)據同期新(xin)(xin)(xin)增裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)61%；截至2022年11月，新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)累(lei)計(ji)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)達到(dao)723GW，占(zhan)(zhan)同期累(lei)計(ji)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)28.8%。根據藍皮書規劃，到(dao)2030年新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)裝(zhuang)(zhuang)機(ji)(ji)(ji)(ji)占(zhan)(zhan)比超(chao)過40%，發電(dian)量占(zhan)(zhan)比超(chao)過20%，長期增長空間(jian)依然廣(guang)闊(kuo)。后(hou)續將推動新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)集中與(yu)分布并(bing)舉、陸上與(yu)海上并(bing)舉、就地利用與(yu)遠距(ju)離外送并(bing)舉，構建新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)多元化(hua)開(kai)發利用新(xin)(xin)(xin)格局。隨著可再生能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)補貼問(wen)題的(de)逐步解決、綠電(dian)交(jiao)易(yi)規模(mo)不(bu)斷擴大、以及(ji)近期光(guang)伏(fu)組件價格顯著下降，都有利于新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)運(yun)營(ying)商的(de)盈利能力提(ti)升，并(bing)推動新(xin)(xin)(xin)能源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)投(tou)資加速。

抽水(shui)(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)與新(xin)型(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)多(duo)元(yuan)化并(bing)舉(ju)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)：藍皮書提出(chu)現階(jie)段儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)多(duo)應用場景多(duo)技(ji)術(shu)路線(xian)規模(mo)化發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)，重點滿(man)足(zu)系統(tong)日內平衡(heng)調節需求。儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)主(zhu)要分為(wei)抽水(shui)(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)以電(dian)化學儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)為(wei)主(zhu)的(de)新(xin)型(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)，根據中關村儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)產業(ye)技(ji)術(shu)聯盟統(tong)計，截至2022年9月底，全(quan)國已(yi)投運的(de)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)總(zong)裝(zhuang)機規模(mo)達到50.3GW(其中抽水(shui)(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)43.6GW，新(xin)型(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)6.7GW)。國家能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源局《抽水(shui)(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)中長期發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)規劃(hua)(2021—2035年)》和(he)《“十(shi)四五”新(xin)型(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)實施(shi)方案》提出(chu)，2025年抽水(shui)(shui)蓄(xu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)和(he)新(xin)型(xing)儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)的(de)投產規模(mo)將分別達到62GW和(he)30GW，較2022年9月均有20GW左右的(de)增長空間。

建議(yi)關注(zhu)：《新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力系統發(fa)展(zhan)藍皮書（征求意見(jian)稿）》，明確新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)力系統建設的“進度(du)條”。從電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)端來(lai)看，火電(dian)(dian)、水(shui)電(dian)(dian)、新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)等各類電(dian)(dian)源(yuan)多能(neng)(neng)(neng)互補協同發(fa)展(zhan)。我們建議(yi)關注(zhu)：（1）新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)運營商(shang)：三(san)峽能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)（600905.SH）、龍源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力（001289.SZ）、太陽(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)（000591.SZ）、中閩能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)（600163.SH）、江蘇新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)（603693.SH）；（2）火電(dian)(dian)+新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)互補發(fa)展(zhan)：華(hua)能(neng)(neng)(neng)國(guo)際（600011.SH）、國(guo)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)力（600795.SH）、協鑫(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)科（002015.SZ）;（3）水(shui)電(dian)(dian)+新(xin)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)互補發(fa)展(zhan)：華(hua)能(neng)(neng)(neng)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)（600025.SH）、川投(tou)能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)（600674.SH）。

風險提示：政策支持力度不及(ji)預期；經濟下行導致用電需求(qiu)不及(ji)預期；行業競爭加劇等。

每經頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

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