每經(jing)AI快訊，中國銀河04月03日發布研報稱：給予社會服務推薦（維持）評級。

重(zhong)點公告&事件(jian)：

板(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)表現：本周社服(fu)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)漲跌幅(fu)(fu)為+2.77%，在所有(you)31個行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)周漲跌幅(fu)(fu)排名第顧(gu)熹閩（1）澳(ao)(ao)門(men)博(bo)彩(cai)毛(mao)收(shou)入(ru)連續三月破(po)百(bai)(bai)億；（2）首旅(lv)(lv)(lv)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)：今年(nian)(nian)計劃新(xin)開(kai)(kai)(kai)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)1500家，抓住酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)復(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇(su)機(ji)遇；（3）中(zhong)(zhong)免(mian)成(cheng)都(dou)天(tian)府國(guo)際機(ji)場出境(jing)免(mian)稅(shui)店(dian)(dian)(dian)正式開(kai)(kai)(kai)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)；核心(xin)觀點：免(mian)稅(shui)：頂(ding)奢品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌開(kai)(kai)(kai)始進駐三亞(ya)國(guo)際免(mian)稅(shui)城，免(mian)稅(shui)板(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)回調提(ti)供(gong)布(bu)局良(liang)機(ji)。Q1海南離(li)島(dao)免(mian)稅(shui)銷(xiao)售預(yu)(yu)(yu)計仍(reng)將(jiang)受備(bei)貨因素干擾，但我們(men)(men)認(ren)(ren)為中(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)離(li)島(dao)免(mian)稅(shui)發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)趨勢(shi)和(he)格局不變，尤其(qi)是(shi)(shi)近(jin)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)LV等(deng)頂(ding)奢開(kai)(kai)(kai)始進駐海棠灣二(er)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)，將(jiang)奠定中(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)基調。全年(nian)(nian)看(kan)(kan)，我們(men)(men)認(ren)(ren)為行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)將(jiang)再迎(ying)政(zheng)策(ce)紅利，推(tui)薦(jian)龍(long)頭(tou)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)免(mian)，海南機(ji)場，建(jian)(jian)議(yi)關注(zhu)(zhu)王府井(jing)、海汽集(ji)團(tuan)（海旅(lv)(lv)(lv)免(mian)稅(shui)）、海南發展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)（海發控）、上海機(ji)場、白云機(ji)場、百(bai)(bai)聯股份。會展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)：出行(xing)領域(yu)景(jing)氣度有(you)望(wang)持(chi)續超(chao)預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)的(de)板(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)，持(chi)續推(tui)薦(jian)米奧會展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)。我們(men)(men)預(yu)(yu)(yu)計受益(yi)(yi)疫(yi)情(qing)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)間累(lei)計的(de)需求釋放(fang)+政(zheng)策(ce)支持(chi)，國(guo)內(nei)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)覽業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)今年(nian)(nian)有(you)望(wang)恢(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)至19年(nian)(nian)7-8成(cheng)，外(wai)(wai)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)則將(jiang)同時受益(yi)(yi)于出入(ru)境(jing)恢(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)+政(zheng)策(ce)支持(chi)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)現高(gao)景(jing)氣。持(chi)續看(kan)(kan)好會展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)板(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)景(jing)氣度，重(zhong)點推(tui)薦(jian)海外(wai)(wai)自辦(ban)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)龍(long)頭(tou)米奧會展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)，建(jian)(jian)議(yi)關注(zhu)(zhu)蘭(lan)生(sheng)股份。旅(lv)(lv)(lv)游(you)：3月澳(ao)(ao)門(men)博(bo)彩(cai)收(shou)入(ru)再超(chao)預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)，國(guo)內(nei)游(you)建(jian)(jian)議(yi)關注(zhu)(zhu)天(tian)目(mu)(mu)湖(hu)、大(da)豐(feng)實業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。澳(ao)(ao)門(men)3月博(bo)彩(cai)毛(mao)收(shou)入(ru)127.38億澳(ao)(ao)門(men)元/同比(bi)(bi)+247%，再次超(chao)過市(shi)場預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)，行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)恢(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)率(lv)持(chi)續提(ti)升(sheng)。我們(men)(men)重(zhong)申此(ci)(ci)(ci)前觀點，當(dang)前澳(ao)(ao)門(men)博(bo)彩(cai)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)類似2016-2018年(nian)(nian)情(qing)景(jing)，景(jing)氣提(ti)升(sheng)+結構改善有(you)望(wang)推(tui)動(dong)板(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)迎(ying)接戴維斯雙擊(ji)，建(jian)(jian)議(yi)關注(zhu)(zhu)美高(gao)梅中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)、金沙中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)、銀河娛樂。此(ci)(ci)(ci)外(wai)(wai)看(kan)(kan)好國(guo)內(nei)游(you)Q2表現，建(jian)(jian)議(yi)關注(zhu)(zhu)天(tian)目(mu)(mu)湖(hu)（增量項目(mu)(mu)釋放(fang)成(cheng)長(chang)性，實控人變更(geng)帶(dai)來(lai)資(zi)源整合預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)）、大(da)豐(feng)實業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)（國(guo)內(nei)文體旅(lv)(lv)(lv)裝備(bei)龍(long)頭(tou)，轉型(xing)中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)“小(xiao)宋城”）。酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)：商(shang)旅(lv)(lv)(lv)復(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇(su)加(jia)速推(tui)動(dong)經(jing)營數(shu)(shu)據(ju)超(chao)預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)，重(zhong)點關注(zhu)(zhu)加(jia)盟(meng)商(shang)后(hou)(hou)續開(kai)(kai)(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)信心(xin)。節后(hou)(hou)商(shang)務出行(xing)快速回升(sheng)驅動(dong)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)經(jing)營數(shu)(shu)據(ju)超(chao)預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)復(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇(su)，未(wei)(wei)來(lai)需重(zhong)點關注(zhu)(zhu)加(jia)盟(meng)商(shang)開(kai)(kai)(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)信心(xin)。中(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)看(kan)(kan)，國(guo)內(nei)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)的(de)供(gong)需、競爭格局均較為清晰，頭(tou)部酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)受益(yi)(yi)于供(gong)給出清+輕資(zi)產擴張+中(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)端升(sheng)級，仍(reng)是(shi)(shi)疫(yi)后(hou)(hou)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)復(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇(su)最大(da)受益(yi)(yi)者，推(tui)薦(jian)錦江酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)、首旅(lv)(lv)(lv)酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)、華住集(ji)團(tuan)-S、君亭酒店(dian)(dian)(dian)。餐飲(yin)：經(jing)營數(shu)(shu)據(ju)穩(wen)步修復(fu)(fu)(fu)，預(yu)(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)(qi)穩(wen)定后(hou)(hou)關注(zhu)(zhu)開(kai)(kai)(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)和(he)新(xin)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌孵化進展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)。上市(shi)餐企開(kai)(kai)(kai)年(nian)(nian)至今經(jing)營恢(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)良(liang)好，奈(nai)雪/海倫司等(deng)已(yi)恢(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)營業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)門(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)同比(bi)(bi)均超(chao)2019年(nian)(nian)。此(ci)(ci)(ci)外(wai)(wai)，伴隨多個餐飲(yin)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌開(kai)(kai)(kai)放(fang)加(jia)盟(meng)/類加(jia)盟(meng)機(ji)制，我們(men)(men)認(ren)(ren)為未(wei)(wei)來(lai)2-3年(nian)(nian)或將(jiang)是(shi)(shi)強(qiang)勢(shi)能(neng)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌開(kai)(kai)(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)提(ti)速的(de)最佳階段，推(tui)薦(jian)強(qiang)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌勢(shi)能(neng)餐企九毛(mao)九、海倫司、奈(nai)雪的(de)茶。

風(feng)(feng)險(xian)提示：疫(yi)情二次傳播(bo)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)；宏觀經(jing)濟下行風(feng)(feng)險(xian)；行業競爭格局惡化(hua)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)。

每經頭(tou)條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

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