每經AI快訊，中國銀河07月20日發布研報稱：給予公用事推薦（維持）評級。

事件：國(guo)家(jia)能(neng)源局和(he)國(guo)家(jia)統計局發布了電力工業統計數據以及能(neng)源生產情(qing)況：1-6月全(quan)(quan)國(guo)風(feng)電新增(zeng)(zeng)裝機22.99GW，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)77.7%；全(quan)(quan)國(guo)太陽能(neng)新增(zeng)(zeng)裝機78.42GW，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)154.0%；全(quan)(quan)國(guo)火電新增(zeng)(zeng)裝機26.02GW，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)97.1%；1-6月全(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)43706億千(qian)(qian)瓦時，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)5.0%，其中6月全(quan)(quan)社會用(yong)電量(liang)(liang)7751億千(qian)(qian)瓦時，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)3.9%。

6月(yue)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)裝機高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，招標(biao)量(liang)支(zhi)持后續增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)空間。1-6月(yue)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)裝機22.99GW，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)77.7%，其(qi)中6月(yue)風(feng)電(dian)(dian)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)裝機6.63GW，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)212.7%。截至(zhi)6月(yue)末，風(feng)電(dian)(dian)累計(ji)裝機389.21GW，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)13.7%。從(cong)前瞻指(zhi)標(biao)招標(biao)量(liang)來看，2022年(nian)全(quan)國風(feng)電(dian)(dian)招標(biao)總(zong)量(liang)86.9GW，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)60.6%，創歷史新(xin)高(gao)。2023年(nian)1-6月(yue)全(quan)國風(feng)電(dian)(dian)招標(biao)總(zong)量(liang)34.5GW，同(tong)比下降22%，但依然維持在較(jiao)高(gao)水平。中國可再生能源學會預(yu)計(ji)預(yu)計(ji)2023-2025年(nian)國內年(nian)均新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)裝機60-70GW，較(jiao)2022年(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)38GW明顯提升。

6月太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)裝機(ji)(ji)高增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，全(quan)年(nian)(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)裝機(ji)(ji)有望維(wei)持高增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)。1-6月太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)裝機(ji)(ji)78.42GW，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)154.0%，其中(zhong)(zhong)6月太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)裝機(ji)(ji)17.21GW，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)140.0%。截至6月末，太(tai)陽(yang)能(neng)累計裝機(ji)(ji)470.67GW，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)39.8%。我們預(yu)計光(guang)伏(fu)上游成(cheng)本大(da)幅下降對(dui)裝機(ji)(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)有較(jiao)大(da)推動作(zuo)用。根(gen)據近期三峽能(neng)源蒙西基地庫布其項目、國(guo)電電力組件框架協(xie)議(yi)采購項目等中(zhong)(zhong)標(biao)(biao)結(jie)果，組件中(zhong)(zhong)標(biao)(biao)價格已下降至1.3-1.4元/W，接近歷(li)史最低水平，有望刺激下半(ban)年(nian)(nian)裝機(ji)(ji)需(xu)求。光(guang)伏(fu)協(xie)會預(yu)計2023年(nian)(nian)全(quan)國(guo)光(guang)伏(fu)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)裝機(ji)(ji)95-120GW，同(tong)比(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)9%-37%；2023-2030年(nian)(nian)新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)裝機(ji)(ji)呈遞增(zeng)(zeng)趨勢(shi)。

6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)下(xia)滑，經濟弱復蘇(su)拖累用(yong)電(dian)(dian)需求(qiu)。6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)，全社(she)會(hui)用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量7751億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)（同比(bi)+3.9%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)環比(bi)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)降3.5pct），主(zhu)要(yao)是工(gong)業與服(fu)務(wu)業用(yong)電(dian)(dian)需求(qiu)疲軟影響。6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)第二產業用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量5027億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)（同比(bi)+2.3%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)環比(bi)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)降1.8pct），第三(san)產業用(yong)電(dian)(dian)量1494億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)（同比(bi)+10.1%，增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)環比(bi)5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)下(xia)降10.8pct）。二季度GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)6.3%，上(shang)半(ban)年GDP增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)5.5%，略低于市場預期。6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)制造業PMI環比(bi)回升0.2個百分點(dian)至49.0%，但連(lian)續三(san)個月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)處于收縮區間（2023年4月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)49.2%、5月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)48.8%、6月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)49.0%）。目前經濟復蘇(su)動能(neng)不足，下(xia)半(ban)年穩經濟政策措施有(you)望加速(su)(su)落地(di)。

煤(mei)價反(fan)彈空間有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)，火電(dian)(dian)盈利有(you)(you)(you)(you)望持續(xu)(xu)(xu)修復(fu)。1-6月火電(dian)(dian)新增裝機(ji)(ji)26.02GW，同(tong)比(bi)增長97.1%，其(qi)中6月新增4GW，同(tong)比(bi)增長17%。2021年以來核準的火電(dian)(dian)機(ji)(ji)組(zu)陸續(xu)(xu)(xu)投(tou)運(yun)，夯實保供基本盤。煤(mei)價方面，7月進入迎峰度夏旺(wang)季(ji)，目前秦港5500大(da)卡市(shi)場煤(mei)價較(jiao)6月低點反(fan)彈116元(yuan)/噸，但(dan)考慮到厄爾(er)尼諾氣候(hou)推(tui)動水電(dian)(dian)出力回升，且經濟復(fu)蘇趨勢依然偏弱，預計后續(xu)(xu)(xu)煤(mei)價反(fan)彈空間較(jiao)為有(you)(you)(you)(you)限(xian)。火電(dian)(dian)企業下半年業績有(you)(you)(you)(you)望持續(xu)(xu)(xu)修復(fu)。

建議關注：預計(ji)2023年市場煤價有(you)(you)望波動下行(xing)，推(tui)動長(chang)協履約率提(ti)升，火電(dian)(dian)盈利能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)力有(you)(you)望持續改善；“雙碳(tan)”目標指(zhi)引下新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)裝機增長(chang)確(que)定性高(gao)，仍然看好(hao)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)長(chang)期發展空間(jian)。火電(dian)(dian)板塊重(zhong)點推(tui)薦(jian)華(hua)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)國(guo)際、華(hua)電(dian)(dian)國(guo)際、大唐發電(dian)(dian)、江蘇國(guo)信、皖能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)力、浙能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)力；可再(zai)生能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)板塊重(zhong)點推(tui)薦(jian)三峽(xia)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、龍(long)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)力、芯能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)科(ke)技、中閩能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)、江蘇新能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、華(hua)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)水(shui)電(dian)(dian)、川(chuan)投能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)。

風險(xian)提示：政策支持力度不及預期(qi)；經濟下行(xing)導致用電需求不及預期(qi)；行(xing)業(ye)競爭加劇等。

每經頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

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