每經AI快訊，中國銀河09月11日發布研報稱：給予汽車整車推薦（維持）評級。

事件：乘聯會(hui)發布2023年8月乘用車產(chan)銷(xiao)數據：當月零售(shou)銷(xiao)量為192.0萬輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)+2.5%，環(huan)比(bi)+8.6%；批發銷(xiao)量為223.7萬輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)+6.5%，環(huan)比(bi)+8.5%；產(chan)量為223.7萬輛(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)+5.3%，環(huan)比(bi)+7.1%。

我們(men)的(de)分析與判斷：8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)淡季不淡，經(jing)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)商提(ti)前布局“金九銀十(shi)(shi)”消費(fei)旺季。2023年8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)乘(cheng)(cheng)用車(che)零(ling)(ling)售(shou)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)192.0萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+2.5%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+8.6%，今年1-8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)累計(ji)零(ling)(ling)售(shou)1322.0萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增長2.0%，8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)零(ling)(ling)售(shou)創歷(li)史同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期新(xin)高，單月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)在經(jing)歷(li)了7月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)的(de)小幅下跌后再度(du)實現(xian)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)上升(sheng)(sheng)。廠商批(pi)(pi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)223.7萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+6.5%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+8.5%，經(jing)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)商加強(qiang)(qiang)補庫力度(du)提(ti)前布局“金九銀十(shi)(shi)”消費(fei)旺季。從(cong)(cong)結(jie)構看(kan)，（1）8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)豪(hao)(hao)華(hua)車(che)零(ling)(ling)售(shou)28萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+9%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+14%，豪(hao)(hao)華(hua)車(che)維持相對穩(wen)定(ding)表現(xian)，受銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)透支與自主(zhu)(zhu)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)沖擊影響(xiang)(xiang)較(jiao)合資品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)更(geng)小；（2）自主(zhu)(zhu)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)零(ling)(ling)售(shou)100萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+17%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+6%，自主(zhu)(zhu)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)份(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)額為(wei)52.1%，較(jiao)2022年同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)期提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)6.1pct，自主(zhu)(zhu)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)龍頭比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)亞迪(di)產銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)分別+62.4%和+56.9%。（3）主(zhu)(zhu)流合資品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)零(ling)(ling)售(shou)65萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-16%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+10%，受到自主(zhu)(zhu)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)熱銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)影響(xiang)(xiang)，市場份(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)額下滑嚴重，其(qi)(qi)中德系(xi)份(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)額20.1%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-1.0pct，日系(xi)份(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)額16.7%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-4.0pct，美系(xi)份(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)8.5%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)-0.4pct。新(xin)能源車(che)新(xin)品(pin)(pin)(pin)交(jiao)付順(shun)利推(tui)進，有望支撐“金九銀十(shi)(shi)”延續取得亮眼表現(xian)。8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)新(xin)能源乘(cheng)(cheng)用車(che)零(ling)(ling)售(shou)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)71.6萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+34.5%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+11.8%；批(pi)(pi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)79.8萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+25.6%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+8.2%，新(xin)車(che)型訂單及交(jiao)付情況良好，推(tui)動新(xin)能源車(che)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)上升(sheng)(sheng)至新(xin)高水平。8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)國(guo)內新(xin)能源零(ling)(ling)售(shou)滲(shen)(shen)透率為(wei)37.3%，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)9.0個百(bai)分點。8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)新(xin)能源乘(cheng)(cheng)用車(che)市場批(pi)(pi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)突(tu)破萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)的(de)企業提(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)至15家，占新(xin)能源乘(cheng)(cheng)用車(che)總量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)87.0%，其(qi)(qi)中比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)亞迪(di)（27.4萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)）繼續領跑，特斯拉(la)中國(guo)（8.4萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)）銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)明顯(xian)回升(sheng)(sheng)，理想（3.5萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)）延續前期強(qiang)(qiang)勢表現(xian)。從(cong)(cong)車(che)型看(kan)，8月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)純(chun)電動批(pi)(pi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)55.1萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+11.8%；插電混動銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)24.8萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)+73.6%。從(cong)(cong)結(jie)構看(kan)，自主(zhu)(zhu)品(pin)(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)新(xin)能源車(che)批(pi)(pi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)滲(shen)(shen)透率51.0%，豪(hao)(hao)華(hua)車(che)為(wei)34.6%，主(zhu)(zhu)流合資僅6.1%。其(qi)(qi)中A00級批(pi)(pi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)8.5萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，份(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)額占純(chun)電動的(de)15%；A0級批(pi)(pi)發(fa)(fa)(fa)(fa)銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)17.1萬(wan)(wan)輛(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)(liang)，份(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)額占純(chun)電動的(de)31%；A級份(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)額20%，B級份(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)(fen)額31%，市場結(jie)構向紡錘形繼續演進。

投資建(jian)議(yi)：整車(che)端(duan)推薦廣汽(qi)集(ji)團（601238.SH）、比(bi)亞迪（002594.SZ）、長安汽(qi)車(che)（000625.SZ）、長城(cheng)汽(qi)車(che)（601633.SH）等(deng)；智能化零(ling)部件推薦華域汽(qi)車(che)（600741.SH）、伯特利（603596.SH）、德賽西威(wei)（002920.SZ）、經緯恒(heng)潤（688326.SH）、中科創達(da)(da)（300496.SZ）、科博達(da)(da)（603786.SH）、均勝電(dian)(dian)子（600699.SH）、星宇股份（601799.SH）等(deng)；新能源零(ling)部件推薦法拉電(dian)(dian)子（600563.SH）、菱(ling)電(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)控（688667.SH）、中熔電(dian)(dian)氣（301031.SZ）、拓普(pu)集(ji)團（601689.SH）、旭升集(ji)團（603305.SH）等(deng)。

風(feng)險提示(shi)：1、新能(neng)(neng)源汽車行業銷量不(bu)及預期的(de)風(feng)險2、芯片(pian)短缺(que)帶來產能(neng)(neng)瓶頸的(de)風(feng)險3、行業競爭加劇的(de)風(feng)險。

每經(jing)頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

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