每經AI快訊(xun)，2023年12月21日，中信證券(quan)發布研報點評科(ke)銳國(guo)際（300662）。

公(gong)司(si)公(gong)告發布(bu)2023年限制(zhi)性(xing)(xing)股(gu)票(piao)(piao)激勵計劃（草案(an)），擬向不超過95名(ming)高(gao)管及核(he)心員工授予限制(zhi)性(xing)(xing)股(gu)票(piao)(piao)合計452.65萬股(gu)，該計劃對推進公(gong)司(si)長期激勵機制(zhi)的建(jian)設、充(chong)分調動(dong)核(he)心技術和業(ye)(ye)(ye)務(wu)人(ren)(ren)才積極性(xing)(xing)、提升(sheng)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)綜合競爭力、實現公(gong)司(si)與海內外核(he)心團隊利益綁定具有重(zhong)要意(yi)義(yi)。公(gong)司(si)招聘能力、經營效率(lv)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)領先，我們建(jian)議(yi)跟蹤行業(ye)(ye)(ye)景氣(qi)拐點，建(jian)議(yi)關注在未來(lai)宏觀(guan)經濟(ji)好轉、企業(ye)(ye)(ye)用人(ren)(ren)需求(qiu)回升(sheng)之下公(gong)司(si)的業(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)彈性(xing)(xing)和估值催(cui)化，維持“買入”評級。

考(kao)核未(wei)(wei)(wei)來3年(nian)(nian)(nian)收(shou)入(ru)或(huo)凈(jing)(jing)(jing)利(li)復合增(zeng)速(su)(su)不(bu)低于(yu)(yu)26.6%/22.1%。根據公(gong)司(si)(si)公(gong)告，本次激勵(li)計劃擬向不(bu)超過(guo)95名高管及(ji)核心員(yuan)工授(shou)(shou)予(yu)(yu)限制(zhi)性(xing)股(gu)(gu)票(piao)合計452.65萬股(gu)(gu)（首次授(shou)(shou)予(yu)(yu)407.26萬股(gu)(gu)，預留(liu)授(shou)(shou)予(yu)(yu)45.39萬股(gu)(gu)），占當前公(gong)司(si)(si)股(gu)(gu)本總額的2.3%；授(shou)(shou)予(yu)(yu)價格為(wei)(wei)15.66元/股(gu)(gu)（前60個(ge)交(jiao)易日公(gong)司(si)(si)股(gu)(gu)票(piao)交(jiao)易均價的50%）。本次計劃授(shou)(shou)予(yu)(yu)的限制(zhi)性(xing)股(gu)(gu)票(piao)按40%/30%/30%的比(bi)例(li)(li)分(fen)(fen)(fen)三(san)期歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)（歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)后不(bu)再另設限售安排），對(dui)應(ying)(ying)考(kao)核年(nian)(nian)(nian)度分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)為(wei)(wei)2024-26年(nian)(nian)(nian)三(san)個(ge)會計年(nian)(nian)(nian)度，歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)條(tiao)件對(dui)公(gong)司(si)(si)和個(ge)人(ren)層(ceng)(ceng)面(mian)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)提出業績(ji)/績(ji)效(xiao)考(kao)核要(yao)求。1）公(gong)司(si)(si)：以2023年(nian)(nian)(nian)營收(shou)/凈(jing)(jing)(jing)利(li)潤為(wei)(wei)基數，若2024-26年(nian)(nian)(nian)營收(shou)或(huo)凈(jing)(jing)(jing)利(li)潤增(zeng)速(su)(su)不(bu)低于(yu)(yu)30%/62%/103%（對(dui)應(ying)(ying)未(wei)(wei)(wei)來三(san)年(nian)(nian)(nian)收(shou)入(ru)/凈(jing)(jing)(jing)利(li)潤CAGR不(bu)低于(yu)(yu)26.6%，與過(guo)去(qu)三(san)年(nian)(nian)(nian)凈(jing)(jing)(jing)利(li)CAGR基本持平），則每期公(gong)司(si)(si)層(ceng)(ceng)面(mian)可(ke)歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)比(bi)例(li)(li)為(wei)(wei)100%；若2024-26年(nian)(nian)(nian)營收(shou)或(huo)凈(jing)(jing)(jing)利(li)潤增(zeng)速(su)(su)不(bu)低于(yu)(yu)24%/50%/82%（對(dui)應(ying)(ying)未(wei)(wei)(wei)來三(san)年(nian)(nian)(nian)收(shou)入(ru)/凈(jing)(jing)(jing)利(li)潤CAGR不(bu)低于(yu)(yu)22.1%），則每期公(gong)司(si)(si)層(ceng)(ceng)面(mian)可(ke)歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)比(bi)例(li)(li)為(wei)(wei)80%。2）個(ge)人(ren)：考(kao)核結(jie)果(guo)A/B/C/D等級(ji)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)對(dui)應(ying)(ying)個(ge)人(ren)層(ceng)(ceng)面(mian)歸(gui)屬(shu)(shu)比(bi)例(li)(li)為(wei)(wei)100%/80%/50%/0%。

激(ji)勵(li)對(dui)象考慮周全，嚴苛(ke)考核(he)(he)鞏(gong)固成(cheng)長(chang)預(yu)(yu)期。本次激(ji)勵(li)計(ji)劃覆(fu)蓋范(fan)圍較廣，激(ji)勵(li)對(dui)象除7名(ming)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)高管外(wai)(wai)，還(huan)包(bao)含(han)(han)8名(ming)英(ying)國(guo)籍員(yuan)工(gong)(gong)及(ji)其(qi)他80位公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)（含(han)(han)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)）核(he)(he)心(xin)員(yuan)工(gong)(gong)，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)將有(you)效(xiao)(xiao)激(ji)發公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)海內外(wai)(wai)骨(gu)干員(yuan)工(gong)(gong)積極性(xing)。23Q1-3公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)收入(ru)/歸母(mu)凈利(li)分別同比+5.2%/-30.2%，23Q4至今(jin)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)招聘業(ye)務雖(sui)有(you)所(suo)回暖，我們預(yu)(yu)計(ji)全年公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)凈利(li)仍(reng)(reng)將錄得雙位數下(xia)(xia)滑。年末節點公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)公(gong)(gong)布限制性(xing)股票激(ji)勵(li)計(ji)劃、并制定較為嚴苛(ke)的(de)收入(ru)/利(li)潤考核(he)(he)指(zhi)標，是為宏觀經濟(ji)承壓背(bei)景下(xia)(xia)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)中長(chang)期成(cheng)長(chang)注入(ru)一針強心(xin)劑。在人力資源(yuan)服務行(xing)業(ye)整體滲透率(lv)快速提升(sheng)背(bei)景下(xia)(xia)，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)作為靈活用(yong)工(gong)(gong)龍頭的(de)表現(xian)仍(reng)(reng)將領先于(yu)行(xing)業(ye)增長(chang)。財務角(jiao)度(du)看，預(yu)(yu)計(ji)本次激(ji)勵(li)計(ji)劃將產生約4711萬(wan)元攤銷(xiao)成(cheng)本（根據(ju)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)公(gong)(gong)告，其(qi)中約2693萬(wan)元將于(yu)明年確認），我們認為其(qi)對(dui)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)經營效(xiao)(xiao)率(lv)方面(mian)的(de)長(chang)效(xiao)(xiao)含(han)(han)義及(ji)核(he)(he)心(xin)員(yuan)工(gong)(gong)利(li)益綁定的(de)相關意義遠大于(yu)短期業(ye)績影響，公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)有(you)望重回內生驅動(dong)+外(wai)(wai)延(yan)并購(gou)的(de)增長(chang)快車道。

風(feng)險(xian)因素：宏觀(guan)經濟復蘇弱于預(yu)(yu)期；企業(ye)招聘需求(qiu)回暖弱于預(yu)(yu)期；行業(ye)競(jing)爭加劇，公司客戶流失；公司平(ping)臺(tai)業(ye)務發展不及預(yu)(yu)期等。

盈利預(yu)測、估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)與(yu)評級：2023年(nian)(nian)以來(lai)宏觀(guan)經濟疲弱背景下企業用人(ren)(ren)需求低迷(mi)，公(gong)司(si)(si)國內(nei)業務(wu)(wu)恢復尚不顯(xian)著且(qie)海外(wai)(wai)業務(wu)(wu)增長亦承壓，預(yu)計(ji)(ji)全年(nian)(nian)業績增長承壓。公(gong)司(si)(si)在年(nian)(nian)末時點公(gong)布股權激(ji)勵(li)(li)計(ji)(ji)劃，針對(dui)明(ming)年(nian)(nian)經營預(yu)期回暖(nuan)及中長期成(cheng)長性而言至關重要，對(dui)公(gong)司(si)(si)當(dang)前估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)中樞起到維(wei)穩作用。當(dang)前激(ji)勵(li)(li)方(fang)案仍(reng)需董事會及股東大會通過，暫(zan)不考慮(lv)對(dui)財務(wu)(wu)端影響，我們維(wei)持(chi)2023-25年(nian)(nian)公(gong)司(si)(si)歸母凈(jing)利預(yu)測為2.15/2.89/3.81億元，當(dang)前股價對(dui)應PE為26/19/14x，選(xuan)取A股另兩家人(ren)(ren)力(li)資源服(fu)務(wu)(wu)公(gong)司(si)(si)作為可比公(gong)司(si)(si)，北(bei)京人(ren)(ren)力(li)/外(wai)(wai)服(fu)控股現價對(dui)應2024年(nian)(nian)動態PE均(jun)值(zhi)為14x（基于(yu)(yu)中信(xin)證券研究部(bu)預(yu)測），但考慮(lv)到科銳國際內(nei)生成(cheng)長性優于(yu)(yu)可比公(gong)司(si)(si)平均(jun)水(shui)平，且(qie)我們預(yu)計(ji)(ji)2023-25年(nian)(nian)公(gong)司(si)(si)歸母凈(jing)利CAGR將達33%，并參考本次(ci)激(ji)勵(li)(li)計(ji)(ji)劃對(dui)公(gong)司(si)(si)未來(lai)三年(nian)(nian)收入(ru)/凈(jing)利CAGR不低于(yu)(yu)26.6%/22.1%的考核標準(zhun)，給予(yu)公(gong)司(si)(si)2024年(nian)(nian)25xPE估(gu)(gu)值(zhi)，對(dui)應目標價37元，維(wei)持(chi)“買(mai)入(ru)”評級。

(來源：慧博投研)

免(mian)責(ze)聲明：本文內容與數據僅供(gong)參考，不構成投資建議，使(shi)用前請核(he)實。據此操作(zuo)，風險自(zi)擔。

(編輯 曾健輝)