每經(jing)AI快訊(xun)，2024年1月4日，德邦證(zheng)券(quan)發布研報點評(ping)長城(cheng)汽車（601633）。

事件：長城汽(qi)車公布2023年(nian)12月(yue)(yue)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)。2023年(nian)12月(yue)(yue)長城汽(qi)車實(shi)(shi)現(xian)汽(qi)車銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)11.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+45.3%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)-8.4%。2023年(nian)全年(nian)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)汽(qi)車銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)123.1萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+15.3%。分品牌(pai)看(kan)，（1）12月(yue)(yue)哈弗品牌(pai)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)6.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+47.9%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)-12.6%；2023年(nian)全年(nian)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)71.5萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+16.0%；（2）12月(yue)(yue)WEY品牌(pai)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)0.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+154.5%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+22.5%；2023年(nian)全年(nian)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)4.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+14.4%；（3）12月(yue)(yue)長城皮卡(ka)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)1.6萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+16.9%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)-1.6%；2023年(nian)全年(nian)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)20.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+8.5%；（4）12月(yue)(yue)歐拉品牌(pai)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)1.0萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+44.7%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+0.01%；2023年(nian)全年(nian)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)10.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+4.3%；（5）12月(yue)(yue)坦克品牌(pai)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)1.7萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+57.1%，環(huan)比(bi)(bi)(bi)-6.8%；2023年(nian)全年(nian)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)銷(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)(liang)(liang)16.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)輛，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)+31.2%。

公司新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)轉型(xing)加速，發(fa)(fa)布(bu)全新(xin)(xin)智能(neng)四(si)驅電混技(ji)術。12月(yue)新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)(che)銷(xiao)量(liang)3.0萬(wan)輛，同比(bi)+169.0%，環比(bi)-4.4%；2023年全年新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)汽車(che)(che)銷(xiao)量(liang)26.2萬(wan)輛，同比(bi)+98.7%。其(qi)中(zhong)，哈弗新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)2023累計(ji)銷(xiao)量(liang)突破7.7萬(wan)臺，同比(bi)猛(meng)增649%；坦(tan)克品牌新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)車(che)(che)型(xing)2023全年銷(xiao)量(liang)3.4萬(wan)臺。此(ci)外(wai)，公司加速新(xin)(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)(yuan)技(ji)術升(sheng)級(ji)，2023年12月(yue)Hi4性能(neng)版重磅(bang)發(fa)(fa)布(bu)，專(zhuan)為中(zhong)大型(xing)車(che)(che)型(xing)量(liang)身定制(zhi)，集強大性能(neng)、超低能(neng)耗、極致操控于一身，并將首搭魏牌高山四(si)驅行(xing)政加長版。

2023年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)海外銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)突(tu)破30萬(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，海外表現持續亮(liang)眼(yan)。12月海外銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)3.3萬(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)+64.9%，環比(bi)-5.7%。2023年(nian)(nian)全年(nian)(nian)海外銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)售(shou)汽車(che)(che)(che)31.6萬(wan)輛(liang)(liang)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)+82.5%。長城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)汽車(che)(che)(che)巴基斯坦(tan)KD工廠于2022年(nian)(nian)11月投產(chan)，規劃(hua)產(chan)能(neng)2萬(wan)輛(liang)(liang)/年(nian)(nian)。目前項目一(yi)階段(duan)已實(shi)現哈(ha)弗(fu)(fu)(fu)H6/H6 HEV、哈(ha)弗(fu)(fu)(fu)JOLION兩款(kuan)SUV組(zu)裝；其中(zhong)(zhong)哈(ha)弗(fu)(fu)(fu)H6 HEV助力長城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)汽車(che)(che)(che)在短短一(yi)年(nian)(nian)時(shi)間內位(wei)(wei)居當地新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)市場第一(yi)。此外，2023年(nian)(nian)12月，長城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)汽車(che)(che)(che)攜旗下哈(ha)弗(fu)(fu)(fu)、坦(tan)克(ke)(ke)、歐拉(la)、長城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)皮卡四大品(pin)牌明(ming)星車(che)(che)(che)型(xing)亮(liang)相沙特(te)利雅得(de)車(che)(che)(che)展(zhan)，進一(yi)步加速(su)中(zhong)(zhong)東市場開拓。其中(zhong)(zhong)，坦(tan)克(ke)(ke)500新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)是坦(tan)克(ke)(ke)品(pin)牌在中(zhong)(zhong)東發布的(de)首款(kuan)新(xin)能(neng)源(yuan)豪華(hua)越(yue)野SUV車(che)(che)(che)型(xing)，純電動車(che)(che)(che)歐拉(la)好(hao)貓(mao)亦預計將于2024年(nian)(nian)深(shen)入沙特(te)、阿聯酋等(deng)中(zhong)(zhong)東國(guo)家市場。此外，截至目前，長城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)汽車(che)(che)(che)哈(ha)弗(fu)(fu)(fu)H6在中(zhong)(zhong)東緊湊型(xing)SUV市場，位(wei)(wei)列(lie)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)品(pin)牌銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)第一(yi)；長城(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)皮卡在中(zhong)(zhong)東皮卡細分市場，位(wei)(wei)列(lie)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)品(pin)牌銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)第一(yi)；坦(tan)克(ke)(ke)300為(wei)緊湊型(xing)硬派(pai)越(yue)野月銷(xiao)(xiao)(xiao)量(liang)第一(yi)。

盈利預(yu)測與投資建議(yi)：我們維持盈利預(yu)測，預(yu)計公司2023-2025年(nian)歸母凈(jing)利潤為87.19、125.62、169.77億元(yuan)，對應PE為24、16、12倍，維持“買(mai)入”評級。

風險(xian)提(ti)示：市(shi)場(chang)價格競爭(zheng)超預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)、公(gong)(gong)司(si)新能源轉型不及(ji)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)、公(gong)(gong)司(si)新車銷量(liang)不及(ji)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)。

(來源：慧博投研)

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(編輯 曾健輝)