每經AI快訊(xun)，2024年1月18日(ri)，民生證券發(fa)布研報點(dian)評教(jiao)育行業。

招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)類(lei)(lei)培訓(xun)(xun)賽道：具備(bei)逆周期(qi)屬性，長(chang)期(qi)看成長(chang)空間(jian)清晰。招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)類(lei)(lei)培訓(xun)(xun)系針對國(guo)(guo)內(nei)公務員、事業(ye)(ye)單位(wei)(wei)編制(zhi)、教(jiao)師編制(zhi)等崗(gang)(gang)位(wei)(wei)招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)的(de)(de)培訓(xun)(xun)服務，在(zai)當前就(jiu)業(ye)(ye)形勢較(jiao)為(wei)嚴峻的(de)(de)背景(jing)下，上述公職類(lei)(lei)崗(gang)(gang)位(wei)(wei)穩(wen)定性優勢彰顯；疊加近年(nian)來公職崗(gang)(gang)位(wei)(wei)招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)人(ren)(ren)(ren)數提升，相關(guan)考(kao)試(shi)報(bao)名人(ren)(ren)(ren)數持續(xu)高(gao)增：以(yi)國(guo)(guo)考(kao)為(wei)例，2024年(nian)報(bao)名人(ren)(ren)(ren)數達(da)到(dao)(dao)了歷史新高(gao)的(de)(de)291.4萬人(ren)(ren)(ren)，19-24年(nian)CAGR達(da)到(dao)(dao)23%；招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)類(lei)(lei)考(kao)試(shi)報(bao)名火(huo)爆亦驅(qu)動招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)培訓(xun)(xun)景(jing)氣(qi)度走高(gao)。中長(chang)期(qi)看，國(guo)(guo)內(nei)事業(ye)(ye)單位(wei)(wei)、教(jiao)師資(zi)格考(kao)試(shi)等相關(guan)下沉長(chang)尾招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)考(kao)試(shi)參培率仍有較(jiao)大(da)滲透空間(jian)，伴(ban)隨著線(xian)下重啟職教(jiao)龍頭發力業(ye)(ye)務多元化，行業(ye)(ye)具備(bei)穩(wen)定的(de)(de)成長(chang)空間(jian)，我們預計23-26年(nian)招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)類(lei)(lei)考(kao)試(shi)業(ye)(ye)務行業(ye)(ye)規模(mo)CAGR能夠(gou)實(shi)現13%的(de)(de)增長(chang)，2024年(nian)行業(ye)(ye)營收規模(mo)在(zai)400億以(yi)上。

三方割據格局(ju)穩定(ding)，龍(long)頭(tou)(tou)開啟(qi)發展新篇。2021年中公/粉(fen)筆/華(hua)圖(tu)為(wei)招錄(lu)類(lei)考(kao)試三大(da)龍(long)頭(tou)(tou)，行(xing)業CR3約30%。21-23年由于(yu)中公退費問(wen)題致(zhi)業務(wu)受損，粉(fen)筆戰略收縮線下業務(wu)等原因行(xing)業集中度有所下降。當(dang)前隨著疫后線下場景放開，中公發力優化欠款問(wen)題/降本增效，粉(fen)筆登(deng)錄(lu)港股(gu)，華(hua)圖(tu)推進(jin)上市進(jin)展，三大(da)龍(long)頭(tou)(tou)有望(wang)進(jin)入新的(de)發展階(jie)段。

重點標的(de)梳理：1）華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)山鼎：承接華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)教(jiao)育(yu)優(you)質(zhi)品(pin)牌(pai)資(zi)產(chan)，有(you)序(xu)拓展招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)。23年(nian)10月(yue)，華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)山鼎旗下(xia)子(zi)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)科技(ji)與華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)教(jiao)育(yu)簽訂《無形資(zi)產(chan)無償授(shou)權使用協(xie)(xie)議(yi)》，華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)科技(ji)將(jiang)以“華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)”商(shang)號在各地分批次設立分公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)開(kai)展公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)考(kao)、事業(ye)(ye)單位(wei)等成人(ren)(ren)招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)培(pei)(pei)訓(xun)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)，華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)教(jiao)育(yu)同(tong)步停止相關(guan)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)。華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)教(jiao)育(yu)為線(xian)(xian)下(xia)招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)培(pei)(pei)訓(xun)領(ling)軍企(qi)業(ye)(ye)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)務(wu)(wu)員招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)系(xi)列貢獻主(zhu)(zhu)要收入來源(yuan)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)。隨著(zhu)公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)產(chan)品(pin)結構和(he)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)競爭格局的(de)改善，華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)教(jiao)育(yu)收入及毛利(li)率修(xiu)復顯著(zhu)，2023Q1-Q3公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)收入達21.05億(yi)元(yuan)，毛利(li)率達58.93%，已經(jing)接近2015-2016年(nian)水(shui)平。2024年(nian)將(jiang)為華(hua)(hua)(hua)(hua)圖(tu)(tu)(tu)(tu)山鼎承接招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)(wu)的(de)第(di)一個自然年(nian)，上(shang)(shang)(shang)市公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)表端業(ye)(ye)績有(you)望顯著(zhu)改善。2）中公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)教(jiao)育(yu)：公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)為招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)考(kao)培(pei)(pei)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)綜(zong)合市占率最高(gao)的(de)龍頭(tou)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)。疫情(qing)期間(jian)，協(xie)(xie)議(yi)班(ban)+理享學助推高(gao)退費(fei)，同(tong)時疫情(qing)打亂考(kao)試節奏致使資(zi)金鏈承壓(ya)。目(mu)前，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)積(ji)極籌措(cuo)資(zi)金解決退費(fei)問題同(tong)時調(diao)整(zheng)戰(zhan)略(lve)方向，自上(shang)(shang)(shang)而(er)下(xia)對產(chan)品(pin)、渠道(dao)、人(ren)(ren)員進行(xing)優(you)化調(diao)整(zheng)。調(diao)整(zheng)取得初步成效，23年(nian)前三季度公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)實(shi)現歸母(mu)凈(jing)利(li)潤2.42億(yi)元(yuan)，同(tong)比扭虧。長邏輯上(shang)(shang)(shang)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)品(pin)類擴張邏輯依舊不變。3）粉筆：在線(xian)(xian)招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)考(kao)培(pei)(pei)龍頭(tou)，探(tan)索OMO新機遇。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)于(yu)2020年(nian)5月(yue)開(kai)拓線(xian)(xian)下(xia)培(pei)(pei)訓(xun)服(fu)務(wu)(wu)，2021年(nian)因(yin)為疫情(qing)影響線(xian)(xian)下(xia)授(shou)課以及招(zhao)(zhao)錄(lu)(lu)考(kao)試延期影響公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)利(li)潤率，公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)重新調(diao)整(zheng)戰(zhan)略(lve)優(you)化線(xian)(xian)下(xia)培(pei)(pei)訓(xun)機構，回歸線(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)，成本費(fei)用優(you)化下(xia)，22年(nian)實(shi)現扭虧為盈(ying)。公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)主(zhu)(zhu)打高(gao)性價比線(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)課程，未來憑(ping)借課程迭代仍有(you)較大提價空間(jian)，且公(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)有(you)望依托線(xian)(xian)上(shang)(shang)(shang)流量及線(xian)(xian)下(xia)保留網點持續探(tan)索OMO培(pei)(pei)訓(xun)模(mo)式，交叉銷(xiao)售構建增長點。

投資(zi)建(jian)議：在當(dang)前就業形勢較為嚴(yan)峻(jun)的背景下，公職類崗位穩定性優勢彰顯，招錄報考人數驟增，同時招錄競爭加(jia)劇下，參培率持續提升(sheng)，招錄行(xing)(xing)業市場規模有望迎來(lai)報考人數和參培率的雙擊，短期行(xing)(xing)業景氣度(du)有望持續上行(xing)(xing)，長期看當(dang)前參培率較低仍有較大(da)空(kong)間。疫情(qing)后，行(xing)(xing)業龍頭各自調整發(fa)展戰略，進(jin)入(ru)發(fa)展新階段，推薦華圖山鼎，建(jian)議關注粉筆、中公教育(yu)。

風(feng)險(xian)提(ti)示(shi)：政(zheng)策風(feng)險(xian)；招錄(lu)考試培訓需求波動風(feng)險(xian)；市場(chang)競爭激烈，集中度無法提(ti)升；潛在(zai)退(tui)款風(feng)險(xian)；業務注入不(bu)及預(yu)期風(feng)險(xian)等。

(來源：慧博投研)

免責聲明：本文(wen)內容與數據僅(jin)供參考，不構成投資(zi)建議(yi)，使(shi)用(yong)前(qian)請核實。據此操(cao)作，風險自擔。

(編輯 曾健輝)