每(mei)經(jing)AI快訊，中(zhong)信建投陳果發(fa)文稱(cheng)，本輪行(xing)情(qing)(qing)，情(qing)(qing)緒高(gao)(gao)漲階段告一(yi)段落，從(cong)(cong)指標看(kan)(kan)目(mu)前已回(hui)到(dao)正常水(shui)平(ping)，從(cong)(cong)季節性(xing)規律看(kan)(kan)，4月(yue)市場情(qing)(qing)緒可能繼續回(hui)落。四月(yue)進(jin)入(ru)基本面與(yu)政策面的驗證(zheng)期(qi)。短期(qi)A股面臨一(yi)定(ding)的約束與(yu)挑(tiao)戰(zhan)，包括一(yi)季報高(gao)(gao)增(zeng)長行(xing)業有(you)限(xian)與(yu)匯率(lv)波動等。歷(li)史(shi)上看(kan)(kan)，當業績增(zeng)速高(gao)(gao)于30%的申(shen)萬三級板(ban)塊(kuai)數(shu)量(liang)占比處于下(xia)滑通(tong)道(dao)或(huo)歷(li)史(shi)偏低(di)(di)分(fen)位(wei)時(shi)，低(di)(di)估值風(feng)格(ge)大概率(lv)跑贏。當前在低(di)(di)估值風(feng)格(ge)中(zhong)，景氣(qi)端和分(fen)紅(hong)(hong)端的預期(qi)差有(you)望(wang)助力(li)高(gao)(gao)股息(xi)、中(zhong)字頭線(xian)索的彈(dan)性(xing)。從(cong)(cong)年(nian)報預分(fen)紅(hong)(hong)水(shui)平(ping)看(kan)(kan)，在951家(jia)已披露(lu)23年(nian)分(fen)紅(hong)(hong)率(lv)的企業中(zhong)有(you)645家(jia)較22年(nian)均進(jin)一(yi)步提升了分(fen)紅(hong)(hong)率(lv)水(shui)平(ping)，占比高(gao)(gao)達67.8%。配置層面繼續以景氣(qi)穩定(ding)的高(gao)(gao)股息(xi)品種(zhong)(zhong)為(wei)底倉(cang)，優選供需格(ge)局改善方向，新質生產(chan)力(li)方向（AI等）、海外定(ding)價（石(shi)油(you)等）及出海品種(zhong)(zhong)。行(xing)業推薦：石(shi)油(you)、電力(li)、家(jia)電、有(you)色、通(tong)信、電子(zi)等。