每(mei)經AI快訊，國金證券研(yan)報(bao)表(biao)示，保險(xian)(xian)(xian)板塊短期(qi)(qi)預(yu)計仍(reng)以貝塔驅動(dong)的(de)(de)行(xing)情(qing)為主(zhu)，開(kai)(kai)門紅(hong)NBV有望(wang)實現(xian)雙(shuang)位(wei)數(shu)增(zeng)長(chang)將是超(chao)額收益的(de)(de)重(zhong)要支(zhi)撐。居民(min)風(feng)險(xian)(xian)(xian)偏(pian)好(hao)(hao)整體偏(pian)低疊加儲(chu)蓄需求強(qiang)勁(jing)，且(qie)預(yu)定利(li)(li)(li)率(lv)再(zai)次下調后(hou)，儲(chu)蓄險(xian)(xian)(xian)的(de)(de)收益率(lv)仍(reng)優于(yu)銀行(xing)定期(qi)(qi)存款且(qie)具備長(chang)期(qi)(qi)保值增(zeng)值優勢，預(yu)計銷售端(duan)良好(hao)(hao)態勢仍(reng)將延續，預(yu)計2025年開(kai)(kai)門紅(hong)新單保費(fei)仍(reng)有望(wang)實現(xian)正增(zeng)長(chang)，NBV有望(wang)實現(xian)雙(shuang)位(wei)數(shu)增(zeng)長(chang)。如開(kai)(kai)門紅(hong)數(shu)據表(biao)現(xian)較好(hao)(hao)，將會是12月(yue)-明年Q1保險(xian)(xian)(xian)股(gu)階段(duan)性(xing)行(xing)情(qing)的(de)(de)重(zhong)要數(shu)據支(zhi)撐。中長(chang)期(qi)(qi)看順(shun)周期(qi)(qi)邏輯的(de)(de)啟動(dong)，復盤2015年來的(de)(de)保險(xian)(xian)(xian)股(gu)表(biao)現(xian)，經濟修復預(yu)期(qi)(qi)下長(chang)端(duan)利(li)(li)(li)率(lv)上行(xing)將直接抬升險(xian)(xian)(xian)企投資收益率(lv)預(yu)期(qi)(qi)，催化(hua)順(shun)周期(qi)(qi)行(xing)情(qing)，且(qie)長(chang)端(duan)利(li)(li)(li)率(lv)震蕩下，若權益市場表(biao)現(xian)較好(hao)(hao)且(qie)負債端(duan)不算(suan)太(tai)差(cha)，保險(xian)(xian)(xian)股(gu)也有望(wang)觸發β行(xing)情(qing)。