每(mei)經編輯｜葉(xie)峰(feng)

近期全球貿易環境的不(bu)確定(ding)性升(sheng)溫，海外和國(guo)內(nei)權益市場波動(dong)加大(da)，投資者(zhe)對于(yu)后續行業配置(zhi)討論較多，那么在當(dang)下(xia)環境而言，如何看待后續紅利港(gang)股ETF(159331)的表現？

短期維度(du)，港(gang)(gang)(gang)股(gu)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)利股(gu)息(xi)(xi)(xi)、估值優勢(shi)凸顯，且市場(chang)環(huan)境也(ye)利于其(qi)表(biao)現。從港(gang)(gang)(gang)股(gu)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)利相較A股(gu)的(de)性價(jia)比(bi)而(er)言，目(mu)前港(gang)(gang)(gang)股(gu)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)利和(he)A股(gu)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)利之(zhi)間的(de)折價(jia)和(he)股(gu)息(xi)(xi)(xi)率(lv)(lv)之(zhi)差處(chu)(chu)于歷史中(zhong)位左右，2024年(nian)以來(lai)(lai)港(gang)(gang)(gang)股(gu)較A股(gu)的(de)股(gu)息(xi)(xi)(xi)、溢(yi)價(jia)優勢(shi)略(lve)有收斂。不過即(ji)使考慮紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)利稅后，港(gang)(gang)(gang)股(gu)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)利板塊的(de)股(gu)息(xi)(xi)(xi)率(lv)(lv)仍有優勢(shi)，并且3月中(zhong)旬(xun)以來(lai)(lai)港(gang)(gang)(gang)股(gu)紅(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)(hong)利股(gu)息(xi)(xi)(xi)率(lv)(lv)和(he)溢(yi)價(jia)優勢(shi)略(lve)有修(xiu)復(fu)，目(mu)前港(gang)(gang)(gang)股(gu)通(tong)高股(gu)息(xi)(xi)(xi)股(gu)息(xi)(xi)(xi)率(lv)(lv)處(chu)(chu)在歷史高位，估值也(ye)處(chu)(chu)于歷史中(zhong)低(di)水(shui)平，具體來(lai)(lai)看，股(gu)息(xi)(xi)(xi)率(lv)(lv)處(chu)(chu)10年(nian)以來(lai)(lai)72.85%分(fen)位。

近(jin)期(qi)市場表現震蕩，短期(qi)行(xing)情走向(xiang)仍(reng)需關(guan)(guan)注以下(xia)兩(liang)個(ge)變量：一是盡(jin)管近(jin)期(qi)特朗普對華關(guan)(guan)稅態度有所軟化，但考(kao)慮到他上任(ren)美(mei)國(guo)總(zong)統以來(lai)在諸多政策上幾經改弦(xian)更張，后續全球貿易摩擦或仍(reng)將影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)股市風(feng)險偏好。二是美(mei)國(guo)關(guan)(guan)稅對國(guo)內基本面(mian)修復或有一定負面(mian)影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)。最新高頻(pin)數據顯(xian)示近(jin)期(qi)地產數據有所降溫，截(jie)至04/20，30大中城市商品房成(cheng)交面(mian)積當周同比連續兩(liang)周為負，疊加關(guan)(guan)稅影(ying)響(xiang)(xiang)逐漸顯(xian)現，或對市場形(xing)成(cheng)擾動。綜合來(lai)看，目前港(gang)股紅利股息、估值優(you)(you)勢(shi)凸顯(xian)，短期(qi)在不確定性擾動下(xia)，紅利資產相對收益有望占(zhan)優(you)(you)。

來源：國泰海通證券研究

中期維度來(lai)看，政策(ce)強(qiang)(qiang)化分紅(hong)(hong)監管，疊加(jia)低(di)利(li)率環(huan)境(jing)下(xia)中長期資金(jin)加(jia)速入(ru)市(shi)，港股紅(hong)(hong)利(li)仍具備配置(zhi)價值(zhi)。2024年(nian)4月(yue)“新國九條” 要求加(jia)大對(dui)分紅(hong)(hong)優(you)質公(gong)司(si)的(de)激(ji)勵力度，12月(yue)國資委印發(fa)的(de)《關于(yu)改進和加(jia)強(qiang)(qiang)中央企業控股上(shang)市(shi)公(gong)司(si)市(shi)值(zhi)管理工作的(de)若干意(yi)見》要求央企上(shang)市(shi)公(gong)司(si)要增強(qiang)(qiang)現金(jin)分紅(hong)(hong)穩(wen)定性、持續(xu)性和可預期性。隨(sui)著政策(ce)的(de)逐漸(jian)落實，A股乃(nai)至港股上(shang)市(shi)公(gong)司(si)的(de)分紅(hong)(hong)積極性、持續(xu)性有望提高。

同(tong)時，低(di)利率(lv)環(huan)境下(xia)，資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)對紅利資(zi)(zi)(zi)產有較(jiao)高的配(pei)置(zhi)需求(qiu)。低(di)利率(lv)環(huan)境下(xia)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)需要(yao)尋找(zhao)基本面和(he)(he)長期收(shou)(shou)益(yi)穩健的資(zi)(zi)(zi)產進行(xing)(xing)配(pei)置(zhi)，紅利資(zi)(zi)(zi)產首當其沖。根據國泰海通證券測算，從南(nan)下(xia)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)來看，春節至今南(nan)下(xia)大幅流入(ru)港(gang)(gang)股(gu)(gu)(gu)超4700億(yi)，主要(yao)增配(pei)了(le)銀行(xing)(xing)、電(dian)信(xin)服務(wu)等行(xing)(xing)業的高股(gu)(gu)(gu)息(xi)資(zi)(zi)(zi)產，其中南(nan)下(xia)資(zi)(zi)(zi)金(jin)(jin)對銀行(xing)(xing)凈流入(ru)達(da)632億(yi)港(gang)(gang)元、電(dian)信(xin)服務(wu)為292億(yi)港(gang)(gang)元、公用事(shi)業為177億(yi)港(gang)(gang)元。另(ling)外(wai)，近年來險(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)保費收(shou)(shou)入(ru)持續增長，更(geng)追(zhui)求(qiu)絕對收(shou)(shou)益(yi)的險(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)對于高股(gu)(gu)(gu)息(xi)類資(zi)(zi)(zi)產的配(pei)置(zhi)需求(qiu)有望提(ti)升。例如(ru)今年以來平安人(ren)壽在港(gang)(gang)股(gu)(gu)(gu)分別增持了(le)招商銀行(xing)(xing)和(he)(he)農業銀行(xing)(xing)，未(wei)來險(xian)資(zi)(zi)(zi)對紅利資(zi)(zi)(zi)產的配(pei)置(zhi)需求(qiu)也(ye)將支撐其表現，投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)者可持續關注紅利港(gang)(gang)股(gu)(gu)(gu)ETF(159331)投(tou)資(zi)(zi)(zi)機會。

注：市場(chang)觀點僅供參(can)考，不構成任何(he)投資(zi)建議或(huo)承諾(nuo)。黃金(jin)(jin)(jin)基金(jin)(jin)(jin)ETF主要投資(zi)對象(xiang)為黃金(jin)(jin)(jin)現貨(huo)合(he)約，預(yu)期風(feng)(feng)險(xian)收益水平與黃金(jin)(jin)(jin)資(zi)產(chan)相(xiang)似，不同(tong)于股票(piao)基金(jin)(jin)(jin)、混(hun)合(he)基金(jin)(jin)(jin)、債券基金(jin)(jin)(jin)和(he)貨(huo)幣市場(chang)基金(jin)(jin)(jin)。如需(xu)購(gou)(gou)買相(xiang)關(guan)基金(jin)(jin)(jin)產(chan)品，請您詳閱基金(jin)(jin)(jin)法律文件，關(guan)注投資(zi)者適當(dang)性管(guan)理相(xiang)關(guan)規定(ding)，提(ti)前(qian)做(zuo)好(hao)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)測評，并(bing)根據您自身的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)承受能力(li)購(gou)(gou)買與之(zhi)相(xiang)匹配的風(feng)(feng)險(xian)等級的基金(jin)(jin)(jin)產(chan)品。基金(jin)(jin)(jin)有(you)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)，投資(zi)需(xu)謹(jin)慎。