每經AI快(kuai)訊， 中國銀河證券(quan)表(biao)示，1-3月(yue)(yue)國內(nei)原煤(mei)產量(liang)同比增(zeng)5.46%，增(zeng)速(su)較1-2月(yue)(yue)收(shou)縮；3月(yue)(yue)進口(kou)端(duan)同環(huan)(huan)比明顯增(zeng)長(chang)。需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)端(duan)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力生產增(zeng)速(su)加(jia)快(kuai)，火電(dian)(dian)(dian)由降轉升，核電(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能(neng)發電(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速(su)加(jia)快(kuai)，風電(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)速(su)回落，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)降幅(fu)擴(kuo)大；非電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)端(duan)，粗鋼、生鐵、水(shui)泥產量(liang)同比繼續改善，預(yu)計未來(lai)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)端(duan)數據的(de)改善仍(reng)將延(yan)續。日耗(hao)(hao)近期(qi)受需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)、天氣等(deng)因素在3月(yue)(yue)基礎上(shang)(shang)有(you)所下降，隨著臨(lin)近迎峰度夏旺(wang)季，電(dian)(dian)(dian)煤(mei)日耗(hao)(hao)量(liang)未來(lai)或將環(huan)(huan)比改善。近1個月(yue)(yue)來(lai)港口(kou)庫存(cun)表(biao)現(xian)(xian)穩(wen)(wen)中有(you)降，電(dian)(dian)(dian)廠庫存(cun)以(yi)上(shang)(shang)升為主(zhu)。1-3月(yue)(yue)份基建、制造(zao)業、地產投資完成(cheng)額同比增(zeng)速(su)較1-2月(yue)(yue)份維持穩(wen)(wen)定。近期(qi)供(gong)給(gei)呈現(xian)(xian)偏寬(kuan)松格局(ju)，但考(kao)慮到(dao)進口(kou)煤(mei)性價(jia)比收(shou)縮，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)表(biao)現(xian)(xian)持續低迷，部分采購需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)仍(reng)有(you)望(wang)釋放，煤(mei)價(jia)有(you)望(wang)維持穩(wen)(wen)定。