每(mei)經(jing)AI快訊，中國銀河證券研(yan)報指出(chu)，人民幣即(ji)期匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)在5月18日再次(ci)破“7元”關(guan)口，收(shou)盤于(yu)7.0294元。人民幣匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)上一次(ci)跌破7元是(shi)在2022年9月，2022年8月15日央行降息是(shi)匯(hui)(hui)率(lv)(lv)大(da)幅走弱的直接原因。

本(ben)次人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)在(zai)(zai)平穩之后(hou)，5月(yue)份(fen)(fen)再次走(zou)(zou)(zou)弱，其背(bei)后(hou)的(de)原因(yin)與去年有(you)所不同，對(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)市(shi)場預期(qi)的(de)沖擊也更弱。人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)仍然跟隨美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)而(er)動(dong)。5月(yue)份(fen)(fen)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)貶(bian)值主(zhu)要(yao)與美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)走(zou)(zou)(zou)強相關，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)跟隨全球貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)貶(bian)值。4月(yue)份(fen)(fen)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)走(zou)(zou)(zou)勢情況稍(shao)顯背(bei)離，在(zai)(zai)美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)指數(shu)回落的(de)同時(shi)，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)也在(zai)(zai)回落，但(dan)也可(ke)以看(kan)到，4月(yue)份(fen)(fen)與美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)走(zou)(zou)(zou)勢出現背(bei)離的(de)國(guo)家(jia)較多。5月(yue)份(fen)(fen)美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)指數(shu)反(fan)(fan)彈(dan)，主(zhu)要(yao)國(guo)家(jia)貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)貶(bian)值，但(dan)商品國(guo)家(jia)貨(huo)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)表現稍(shao)好。未來(lai)一段(duan)時(shi)間人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)持續(xu)弱勢。（1）對(dui)(dui)(dui)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)預期(qi)已經(jing)(jing)形(xing)成(cheng)，而(er)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)的(de)任何(he)超預期(qi)都會帶(dai)動(dong)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)也就會回升(sheng)。這種對(dui)(dui)(dui)于(yu)(yu)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)持續(xu)的(de)觀(guan)察可(ke)能要(yao)到6月(yue)份(fen)(fen)，在(zai)(zai)此之前(qian)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)都較為(wei)低(di)迷。（2）美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)的(de)短期(qi)反(fan)(fan)彈(dan)給(gei)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)帶(dai)來(lai)壓力(li)。在(zai)(zai)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)處于(yu)(yu)弱勢的(de)環(huan)境下(xia)，美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)的(de)走(zou)(zou)(zou)高直接帶(dai)來(lai)而(er)來(lai)人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)的(de)下(xia)滑(hua)(hua)，如果美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)繼續(xu)上(shang)行(xing)，人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)的(de)下(xia)滑(hua)(hua)就沒(mei)有(you)結(jie)束。人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)穩定或反(fan)(fan)轉需要(yao)等到下(xia)半年。預計短期(qi)內（1-2個月(yue)）人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)可(ke)能繼續(xu)下(xia)滑(hua)(hua)，美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)兌人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)可(ke)能下(xia)滑(hua)(hua)至(zhi)7.1元(yuan)左右。人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)反(fan)(fan)轉需要(yao)等待美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)反(fan)(fan)轉、中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟(ji)(ji)預期(qi)轉變(bian)的(de)時(shi)刻，我(wo)們(men)預計年末人(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)(ren)民(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)(min)幣(bi)(bi)(bi)匯(hui)(hui)(hui)率(lv)會重新(xin)上(shang)行(xing)，預計在(zai)(zai)6.75元(yuan)左右。