每經(jing)AI快(kuai)訊，中國銀河12月08日發布研報稱：給予公用事業推薦（維持）評級。

2023年復盤：可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)裝(zhuang)機超(chao)過火電(dian)，能(neng)源(yuan)轉型推動市場(chang)化改革提速(su)：截至2023年三季度，全國可再(zai)生(sheng)能(neng)源(yuan)裝(zhuang)機13.84億千(qian)瓦，同比增長20%，占總裝(zhuang)機49.6%，并超(chao)過火電(dian)裝(zhuang)機。能(neng)源(yuan)轉型加速(su)，要求適應新型電(dian)力系(xi)統的市場(chang)機制創新。電(dian)價(jia)方面，煤電(dian)容量電(dian)價(jia)落地(di)，輔(fu)助服務政(zheng)策預計明年推出；電(dian)量方面，現貨(huo)基(ji)本規則(ze)落地(di)并明確各省現貨(huo)市場(chang)建設進度。

2024年觀點：電(dian)(dian)(dian)改持(chi)(chi)續深化(hua)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)力行業迎估(gu)值(zhi)、成長機遇：市場擔憂容量電(dian)(dian)(dian)價出臺將(jiang)影響電(dian)(dian)(dian)量電(dian)(dian)(dian)價，我們(men)認為市場煤價遠高于合理區間上限，且十(shi)四五以來火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)企業累(lei)計虧(kui)損(sun)較多，目(mu)前仍(reng)有彌補虧(kui)損(sun)需求(qiu)，因此(ci)明年電(dian)(dian)(dian)價下調或將(jiang)低于預期(qi)。長期(qi)來看，隨著電(dian)(dian)(dian)改推進(jin)，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)盈利(li)穩(wen)定性(xing)(xing)將(jiang)持(chi)(chi)續提升，核電(dian)(dian)(dian)作(zuo)為清潔的基荷能(neng)源(yuan)，兼(jian)具穩(wen)定性(xing)(xing)和成長性(xing)(xing)；目(mu)前火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、核電(dian)(dian)(dian)PB分別為1.00x、1.43x，有望向水電(dian)(dian)(dian)2.31x靠攏，估(gu)值(zhi)修復空間大；而新型電(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)建設的日趨完善(shan)，強大的系統(tong)調節能(neng)力，也將(jiang)打(da)開新能(neng)源(yuan)裝機的長期(qi)增長空間。

火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)：盈(ying)(ying)利(li)繼續(xu)改善(shan)，保(bao)供價(jia)值(zhi)屬性(xing)推動估值(zhi)重(zhong)塑：今(jin)年以來煤價(jia)下行(xing)，長(chang)協履約率(lv)提(ti)升(sheng)，火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)盈(ying)(ying)利(li)逐季度(du)改善(shan)。我們判(pan)斷迎峰度(du)冬期(qi)間煤價(jia)反彈(dan)空間有(you)(you)限，入爐煤價(jia)重(zhong)心(xin)有(you)(you)望持(chi)(chi)續(xu)下移，火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊2024年業(ye)績有(you)(you)望持(chi)(chi)續(xu)改善(shan)。新(xin)型電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力系統(tong)下，火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)調峰、調頻等保(bao)供價(jia)值(zhi)持(chi)(chi)續(xu)提(ti)升(sheng)。近期(qi)全國范(fan)圍煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)容量電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)落地，未來全國性(xing)輔(fu)助(zhu)服務(wu)相關(guan)政策(ce)(ce)亦(yi)有(you)(you)望落地，火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)政策(ce)(ce)催化不斷。我們測(ce)算，至(zhi)2030年火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)將有(you)(you)1/3左右收入來自(zi)容量電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)和輔(fu)助(zhu)服務(wu)，其對于煤價(jia)、電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)敏感性(xing)低，推動盈(ying)(ying)利(li)穩定(ding)性(xing)大幅提(ti)升(sheng)。目前火(huo)(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊PB均值(zhi)為1.00x，隨(sui)著盈(ying)(ying)利(li)穩定(ding)性(xing)持(chi)(chi)續(xu)提(ti)升(sheng)，板塊PB有(you)(you)望向核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)PB1.43x、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)PB2.31x靠攏。

新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)：能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型下主力電源(yuan)(yuan)，長期量、價成長空(kong)間大：目前新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)累計(ji)裝機(ji)9.4億千瓦(wa)，占比33%。能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)轉(zhuan)型大背景(jing)下新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)將成為主力電源(yuan)(yuan)，預計(ji)2025年(nian)、2030年(nian)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)累計(ji)裝機(ji)將超過14億千瓦(wa)、20億千瓦(wa)。隨著綠色環境價值市場(chang)體(ti)系完(wan)善，綠電、綠證交(jiao)易(yi)大幅(fu)提升，且綠色環境價值將直接對(dui)標碳(tan)市場(chang)價格。新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)通過環境市場(chang)回收(shou)綠電溢價，增厚盈(ying)利水平。

投資策(ce)略：短期推薦具備(bei)政策(ce)催化、業績持續(xu)改善(shan)、估(gu)值(zhi)有(you)提升空間的火電(dian)(dian)板塊；長期、低風(feng)險偏(pian)好資金重點布(bu)(bu)局核電(dian)(dian)、水(shui)電(dian)(dian)；逢低戰(zhan)略性布(bu)(bu)局新(xin)能(neng)源板塊。個股(gu)關注華能(neng)國際、皖能(neng)電(dian)(dian)力、長江電(dian)(dian)力、中(zhong)國核電(dian)(dian)、三峽能(neng)源等。

風(feng)險(xian)提示：裝機規(gui)模不及(ji)預期的(de)風(feng)險(xian)；煤炭價(jia)格持續高位的(de)風(feng)險(xian)；上網電價(jia)下(xia)調(diao)的(de)風(feng)險(xian)；行業競爭加劇的(de)風(feng)險(xian)等。

每經頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王曉波)

免責聲明：本文內容與數據(ju)僅(jin)供參考，不構(gou)成投資建議，使用前請核實。據(ju)此操作，風險自(zi)擔(dan)。