每(mei)經AI快(kuai)訊(xun)，2024年(nian)1月(yue)9日，國(guo)投證券發布(bu)研報點(dian)評海信家(jia)電（000921）。

事(shi)(shi)件：海信(xin)家電發布2024年員工(gong)(gong)(gong)持(chi)(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)計劃(hua)草案。根據公告，本(ben)次員工(gong)(gong)(gong)持(chi)(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)計劃(hua)的(de)擬受(shou)讓的(de)股(gu)(gu)(gu)份總(zong)數合計不超(chao)過1,391.6萬股(gu)(gu)(gu)，約占計劃(hua)公告時公司股(gu)(gu)(gu)本(ben)總(zong)額(e)的(de)1.0%。員工(gong)(gong)(gong)持(chi)(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)計劃(hua)參(can)與人(ren)員為公司董事(shi)(shi)、監(jian)事(shi)(shi)、高級(ji)管(guan)理人(ren)員、核(he)心管(guan)理層及核(he)心骨(gu)干，參(can)加本(ben)次員工(gong)(gong)(gong)持(chi)(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)計劃(hua)的(de)總(zong)人(ren)數不超(chao)過279人(ren)。本(ben)次員工(gong)(gong)(gong)持(chi)(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)計劃(hua)的(de)受(shou)讓價(jia)格(ge)為10.78元/股(gu)(gu)(gu)。我們認為此次員工(gong)(gong)(gong)持(chi)(chi)股(gu)(gu)(gu)計劃(hua)覆蓋范圍(wei)較廣，能(neng)進一(yi)步加強公司整體激勵機制，亦體現了公司對于未來經營的(de)長期良好預期。

員工(gong)持股計(ji)劃(hua)凸(tu)顯(xian)長(chang)期(qi)經營(ying)信(xin)(xin)心(xin)。此次員工(gong)持股計(ji)劃(hua)對(dui)2024~2026年(nian)的歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤(run)(run)(run)進行考核。考核業(ye)績分(fen)(fen)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)與觸(chu)(chu)發(fa)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)：1）按(an)目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)來(lai)看(kan)，2024~2026年(nian)的歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤(run)(run)(run)較(jiao)2022年(nian)增長(chang)122%/155%/194%；2）按(an)觸(chu)(chu)發(fa)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)來(lai)看(kan)，2024~2026年(nian)的歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤(run)(run)(run)較(jiao)2022年(nian)增幅為98%/124%/155%。若公(gong)司2024~2026年(nian)歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤(run)(run)(run)達到目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)，則(ze)100%解(jie)(jie)鎖；若歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤(run)(run)(run)介(jie)于觸(chu)(chu)發(fa)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)與目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)之間，則(ze)解(jie)(jie)鎖80%；低于觸(chu)(chu)發(fa)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)則(ze)不解(jie)(jie)鎖。根據我(wo)(wo)們2023年(nian)的盈(ying)利預(yu)測，解(jie)(jie)鎖條件目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)對(dui)應2024~2026年(nian)的歸(gui)母(mu)凈利潤(run)(run)(run)增速分(fen)(fen)別約(yue)為11.8%/14.9%/15.3%（見(jian)表1）。我(wo)(wo)們認為考核方案分(fen)(fen)級(ji)考核合理，在公(gong)司2023Q1-3業(ye)績持續高(gao)增的背景下(xia)，目(mu)(mu)標(biao)(biao)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)體現公(gong)司對(dui)未來(lai)持續的經營(ying)信(xin)(xin)心(xin)。

白電出(chu)口持(chi)續(xu)景氣，收(shou)入有望(wang)維持(chi)較(jiao)快增(zeng)長(chang)。白電出(chu)口持(chi)續(xu)高(gao)景氣，產(chan)業在線數據顯示(shi)2023M10-11海信科龍家(jia)空(kong)(kong)(kong)/冰箱出(chu)口量分別(bie)YoY+25%/+91%，家(jia)空(kong)(kong)(kong)及(ji)冰洗出(chu)口近(jin)期有望(wang)拉動(dong)公(gong)司(si)(si)收(shou)入維持(chi)較(jiao)快增(zeng)長(chang)。隨著公(gong)司(si)(si)供(gong)應(ying)鏈及(ji)渠(qu)道結構的不斷(duan)優化，公(gong)司(si)(si)白電盈(ying)利能力(li)(li)亦有望(wang)持(chi)續(xu)提升(sheng)。央空(kong)(kong)(kong)行業易受地(di)產(chan)景氣波動(dong)影響，但公(gong)司(si)(si)不斷(duan)推動(dong)央空(kong)(kong)(kong)板(ban)塊多元化發展，公(gong)司(si)(si)央空(kong)(kong)(kong)收(shou)入有望(wang)保持(chi)穩健增(zeng)長(chang)。隨著新能源訂(ding)單不斷(duan)落地(di)，三電收(shou)入增(zeng)速及(ji)盈(ying)利能力(li)(li)有望(wang)進一步提升(sheng)。

投(tou)資建議：公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)推出員工(gong)(gong)持(chi)股(gu)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)草案進一步提振員工(gong)(gong)積極(ji)性(xing)，加強公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)激勵(li)機制。海信日立為(wei)央空龍頭(tou)，有望(wang)帶動(dong)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)長(chang)期(qi)受益(yi)于央空行業的(de)(de)發展，疊加公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)多(duo)業務盈利能(neng)力邊際改善。本次方案落地增(zeng)強了資本市場對公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)治理長(chang)期(qi)持(chi)續改善、經營穩步增(zeng)長(chang)的(de)(de)信心。考(kao)慮本次員工(gong)(gong)持(chi)股(gu)計(ji)劃(hua)(hua)的(de)(de)費用(yong)攤(tan)銷(xiao)，我們(men)對公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)盈利預(yu)測(ce)做出相應調整。預(yu)計(ji)公(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)(si)(si)2023年~2024年EPS2.05/2.33/2.65元(yuan)，給(gei)予買入-A的(de)(de)投(tou)資評(ping)級，6個(ge)月目標價為(wei)25.63元(yuan)，相當于2024年11倍的(de)(de)動(dong)態(tai)市盈率。

風險提示(shi)：地(di)產政策變(bian)化風險，原(yuan)材料價格波動風險

(來源：慧博投研)

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(編輯 趙橋)