每經AI快(kuai)訊，2024年1月11日，西(xi)部證券發布研報點評長盛軸承(cheng)（300718）。

深耕(geng)滑(hua)軸二十余年，“滑(hua)替(ti)滾”趨勢(shi)助力公(gong)(gong)司(si)加速(su)成(cheng)長。公(gong)(gong)司(si)專(zhuan)業(ye)從事自潤滑(hua)軸承(cheng)及高性能聚合物(wu)的研(yan)發、生產和銷售，產品廣泛應用于汽車、工(gong)程機械、能源等行業(ye)。2023H1公(gong)(gong)司(si)金屬(shu)塑料聚合物(wu)自潤滑(hua)卷(juan)制軸承(cheng)、雙金屬(shu)邊界潤滑(hua)卷(juan)制軸承(cheng)、金屬(shu)基(ji)自潤滑(hua)軸承(cheng)占營(ying)業(ye)收入的比重分別(bie)為(wei)29.7%、18.6%、19.5%。

風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)“滑(hua)(hua)替滾”進行(xing)時(shi)，風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)滑(hua)(hua)軸(zhou)市場(chang)有望(wang)釋放(fang)。根據(ju)《滑(hua)(hua)動軸(zhou)承(cheng)(cheng)在風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)齒輪箱中的應用(yong)現狀與發展趨(qu)勢》，使(shi)用(yong)滑(hua)(hua)軸(zhou)的風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)齒輪箱較使(shi)用(yong)滾軸(zhou)扭矩密度可提升25%，傳動鏈長(chang)度減少(shao)5%，齒輪箱重量降低5%，成本(ben)降低15%。預計(ji)至(zhi)2025年(nian)風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)軸(zhou)承(cheng)(cheng)市場(chang)空間(jian)可達20億元。公(gong)司(si)布局風(feng)(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)領域，新建年(nian)產1.4萬套風(feng)(feng)力發電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)自潤滑(hua)(hua)軸(zhou)承(cheng)(cheng)項目，已有部分型號產品完(wan)成測試。

滑軸、絲(si)(si)(si)杠(gang)(gang)產(chan)(chan)品(pin)有(you)望(wang)(wang)應用(yong)(yong)于人(ren)形(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)器(qi)(qi)(qi)人(ren)，國產(chan)(chan)替代趨勢下公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)有(you)望(wang)(wang)受(shou)益。人(ren)形(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)器(qi)(qi)(qi)人(ren)的關節、電機(ji)(ji)(ji)、減速(su)器(qi)(qi)(qi)等多部(bu)(bu)件均(jun)需使(shi)用(yong)(yong)軸承(cheng)，預計(ji)2030年(nian)(nian)全球(qiu)人(ren)形(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)器(qi)(qi)(qi)人(ren)軸承(cheng)新(xin)增市場(chang)空間(jian)可達319億元，滑動軸承(cheng)因(yin)其小(xiao)型化、輕量化的特性有(you)望(wang)(wang)于多部(bu)(bu)位(wei)進行使(shi)用(yong)(yong)，公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)具(ju)備一定(ding)的人(ren)形(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)器(qi)(qi)(qi)人(ren)軸承(cheng)技術儲(chu)備。絲(si)(si)(si)杠(gang)(gang)方面，公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)2022年(nian)(nian)增發預案中計(ji)劃投資建設3萬(wan)套(tao)滾珠絲(si)(si)(si)杠(gang)(gang)項(xiang)目，此(ci)外公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)參股公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)滁州華納滾珠絲(si)(si)(si)杠(gang)(gang)年(nian)(nian)產(chan)(chan)能目前(qian)(qian)為(wei)60萬(wan)套(tao)，目前(qian)(qian)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)絲(si)(si)(si)杠(gang)(gang)已經取得商(shang)用(yong)(yong)車主機(ji)(ji)(ji)廠定(ding)點，未(wei)來也有(you)望(wang)(wang)切入人(ren)形(xing)(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)器(qi)(qi)(qi)人(ren)行業生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)絲(si)(si)(si)杠(gang)(gang)增厚公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)潛在(zai)收(shou)益。

嵌入汽(qi)車(che)頭部企業(ye)(ye)供(gong)應(ying)鏈體系(xi)，工程(cheng)(cheng)機(ji)械(xie)行業(ye)(ye)需(xu)(xu)求有望(wang)(wang)反彈。汽(qi)車(che)業(ye)(ye)務(wu)方面，目前公司已經進(jin)入沃(wo)爾(er)沃(wo)、現代等知(zhi)名主機(ji)廠全球供(gong)應(ying)體系(xi)，與美馳等國內外知(zhi)名汽(qi)車(che)及零部件(jian)產商建立了(le)長期(qi)穩(wen)定的合作關(guan)系(xi)，汽(qi)車(che)行業(ye)(ye)高速發展下空(kong)間廣闊；工程(cheng)(cheng)機(ji)械(xie)方面，一萬億元(yuan)增發國債有望(wang)(wang)推動行業(ye)(ye)回(hui)暖，疊加(jia)挖掘機(ji)更新需(xu)(xu)求下24-25年工程(cheng)(cheng)機(ji)械(xie)行業(ye)(ye)需(xu)(xu)求有望(wang)(wang)反彈。

投(tou)資(zi)建議：預計23-25年公(gong)司歸(gui)母凈(jing)利潤(run)分(fen)別為(wei)2.52/3.31/4.17億元(yuan)，同比(bi)增長146.6%/31.6%/26.1%，對(dui)應EPS為(wei)0.84/1.11/1.40元(yuan)。我(wo)們給予(yu)公(gong)司2024年對(dui)應19XPE估值，對(dui)應目標(biao)價21.05元(yuan)，首(shou)次覆蓋，給予(yu)“增持”評級。

風(feng)險(xian)提示：主(zhu)要原材(cai)料價格波(bo)動風(feng)險(xian)、宏觀(guan)經濟周(zhou)期波(bo)動風(feng)險(xian)、匯率波(bo)動風(feng)險(xian)。

(來源：慧博投研)

免責聲(sheng)明：本文內容與數(shu)據僅供參(can)考，不構成投資建(jian)議(yi)，使(shi)用前請(qing)核實。據此操(cao)作，風險自擔。

(編輯 曾健輝)