每經(jing)AI快訊(xun)，2024年1月19日，國盛證(zheng)券發布研報點評電(dian)力行(xing)業。

事件：國(guo)(guo)家能源(yuan)(yuan)局發布1-12月電力消費(fei)情況，國(guo)(guo)家統計局公布12月份能源(yuan)(yuan)生產情況。

需(xu)求端：2023年(nian)全(quan)年(nian)全(quan)國全(quan)社(she)會(hui)(hui)用電(dian)量同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長6.7%，12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)全(quan)國社(she)會(hui)(hui)用電(dian)量為8555億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長9.9%。根(gen)據國家能(neng)源局(ju)，2023年(nian)，全(quan)社(she)會(hui)(hui)用電(dian)量累計(ji)92241億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長6.7%，其(qi)中，12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)全(quan)社(she)會(hui)(hui)用電(dian)量8555億(yi)千瓦時(shi)，同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長9.9%。分(fen)產(chan)業看，2023年(nian)，我國第一(yi)(yi)、第二(er)產(chan)業和(he)第三產(chan)業累計(ji)用電(dian)量分(fen)別同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長11.5%、6.5%、12.2%，城鄉居(ju)民(min)生活(huo)累計(ji)用電(dian)量同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長0.9%。12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)份(fen)，第一(yi)(yi)、二(er)、三產(chan)業用電(dian)量同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速分(fen)別為9.47%、9.43%和(he)22.14%；城鄉居(ju)民(min)生活(huo)用電(dian)量同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下降0.55%。整體來看，12月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)單月(yue)(yue)(yue)(yue)整體用電(dian)保持(chi)高增(zeng)(zeng)，全(quan)年(nian)用電(dian)需(xu)求同(tong)(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)速達6.7%，體現出電(dian)力(li)需(xu)求的韌性。

供(gong)給端：12月(yue)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)8.0%。國家統計局發(fa)(fa)布數據，12月(yue)份(fen)(fen)全國規上(shang)(shang)工(gong)業發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)8290億千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)8.0%，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速比(bi)(bi)(bi)11月(yue)份(fen)(fen)放緩0.4個百(bai)分(fen)點，日均(jun)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)約267.4億千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)。1—12月(yue)份(fen)(fen)，發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)8.9萬億千(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)(shi)，同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)5.2%。分(fen)不同(tong)(tong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)源看，12月(yue)份(fen)(fen)，火電(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)9.3%，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)2.5%，核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)下(xia)降4.2%，風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)7.4%，太陽能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)17.2%。12月(yue)，規上(shang)(shang)工(gong)業火電(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速加快，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)、風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速回(hui)落(luo)，核(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)降幅擴大。

投資建(jian)議(yi)。隨著寒(han)潮已(yi)至，冬季(ji)用電高(gao)峰(feng)即將(jiang)來臨(lin)，全年用電需求已(yi)超此前預(yu)測值，冬季(ji)用電負荷壓(ya)力仍存。此外，新能源(yuan)裝機提速，電力體制改革深化推進，容量電價等電改政策陸續出臺，把握新型電力系(xi)統建(jian)設重要機會仍是投資主線。

（1）火電(dian)(dian)(dian)：重(zhong)點區域長協電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)整(zheng)(zheng)體超(chao)預期(qi)(qi)，業(ye)績(ji)有(you)望(wang)持(chi)續(xu)改(gai)善，公用事業(ye)化重(zhong)塑估值(zhi)。大部(bu)分(fen)地區2024中長期(qi)(qi)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力交易結果已出，整(zheng)(zheng)體結果好于(yu)此(ci)前(qian)(qian)市場預期(qi)(qi)，尤(you)其是長三(san)角(jiao)區域電(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)疊加容量(liang)(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)后整(zheng)(zheng)體電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)保持(chi)穩定，成本(ben)端較2023年仍有(you)望(wang)持(chi)續(xu)改(gai)善。重(zhong)點看好電(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)風險低、盈利(li)能力和分(fen)紅(hong)水平居于(yu)前(qian)(qian)列(lie)的長三(san)角(jiao)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)。（2）水電(dian)(dian)(dian)/核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)紅(hong)利(li)資產(chan)潛力顯現，把握長期(qi)(qi)投資價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)。水電(dian)(dian)(dian)來水同環比持(chi)續(xu)改(gai)善，板塊(kuai)具有(you)高(gao)分(fen)紅(hong)、高(gao)股(gu)息率、高(gao)ROE特性，業(ye)績(ji)具備(bei)長期(qi)(qi)穩態(tai)優化和相對(dui)獨立性。核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)作為“類水電(dian)(dian)(dian)”資產(chan)，處于(yu)加速成長階段，未來企業(ye)資本(ben)開(kai)支壓(ya)力降(jiang)低，分(fen)紅(hong)比例(li)有(you)望(wang)提(ti)升(sheng)，核(he)(he)電(dian)(dian)(dian)高(gao)股(gu)息資產(chan)潛力顯現。

重(zhong)點(dian)看好火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊，重(zhong)點(dian)推(tui)薦(jian)(jian)(jian)關(guan)(guan)注長三角地區火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)，推(tui)薦(jian)(jian)(jian)關(guan)(guan)注浙能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)、申能(neng)股份、皖能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)，全國(guo)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)龍(long)頭(tou)標(biao)的華(hua)(hua)能(neng)國(guo)際(ji)、國(guo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)；持續推(tui)薦(jian)(jian)(jian)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)靈(ling)活性改造龍(long)頭(tou)標(biao)的：青達環保和華(hua)(hua)光環。水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊，推(tui)薦(jian)(jian)(jian)關(guan)(guan)注長江電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)、華(hua)(hua)能(neng)水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、國(guo)投(tou)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)、川投(tou)能(neng)源(yuan)；核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊，推(tui)薦(jian)(jian)(jian)關(guan)(guan)注中國(guo)核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和中國(guo)廣(guang)核；綠電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板塊，推(tui)薦(jian)(jian)(jian)關(guan)(guan)注全國(guo)綠電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)運營商(shang)龍(long)頭(tou)標(biao)的三峽能(neng)源(yuan)、龍(long)源(yuan)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)。

風險提示：1.火電建(jian)設進度不及(ji)預期(qi)(qi)。2.煤(mei)價上漲(zhang)。3.電力輔助(zhu)服務市場(chang)等政策不及(ji)預期(qi)(qi)。

(來源：慧博投研)

免責聲明：本文內容(rong)與數據僅供參考，不構成投資(zi)建議，使(shi)用前(qian)請核(he)實(shi)。據此操作，風險自擔。

(編輯 曾健輝)