每經AI快訊，中國銀河02月07日發布研報稱：給予公用事業推薦（維持）評級。

2023年(nian)業績預告發(fa)布，火電(dian)(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)、新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)實(shi)現整體(ti)業績增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)：（1）火電(dian)(dian)(dian)：雖然受(shou)到(dao)第(di)四季度(du)減值影響(xiang)，但受(shou)益于(yu)全(quan)(quan)年(nian)煤價下行，火電(dian)(dian)(dian)盈利(li)(li)能(neng)(neng)力持(chi)續改(gai)善。華能(neng)(neng)國際(ji)、浙能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力等(deng)(deng)實(shi)現扭虧(kui)為盈，華電(dian)(dian)(dian)國際(ji)、國電(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力、皖能(neng)(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)力等(deng)(deng)實(shi)現盈利(li)(li)高(gao)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。（2）水電(dian)(dian)(dian)：雖然全(quan)(quan)年(nian)來水明顯(xian)偏枯，但受(shou)益于(yu)電(dian)(dian)(dian)價上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)、梯(ti)級(ji)調度(du)等(deng)(deng)因素，水電(dian)(dian)(dian)龍頭實(shi)現盈利(li)(li)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。其(qi)中川投能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)受(shou)益于(yu)雅礱江流域電(dian)(dian)(dian)價上(shang)漲(zhang)(zhang)，歸母凈利(li)(li)潤增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)25%；長(chang)(chang)江電(dian)(dian)(dian)力受(shou)益于(yu)烏白電(dian)(dian)(dian)站(zhan)注入、六庫聯調推動發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，歸母凈利(li)(li)潤增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)15%。（3）新能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)：裝機(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)帶動發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)量增(zeng)加，其(qi)中三峽能(neng)(neng)源(yuan)歸母凈利(li)(li)潤增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)4.5%，太(tai)陽能(neng)(neng)歸母凈利(li)(li)潤增(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8-19%。

2024年(nian)盈利(li)(li)有望提(ti)升(sheng)，高股息彰(zhang)顯(xian)(xian)投(tou)資價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)：根據(ju)2023年(nian)業績預告測算，我們(men)預計2023年(nian)整體股息率(lv)在(zai)2-4%左右，高股息央(yang)國企彰(zhang)顯(xian)(xian)投(tou)資價(jia)(jia)值(zhi)。展(zhan)望2024年(nian)，預計煤價(jia)(jia)進入下行(xing)通道，厄爾尼(ni)諾氣(qi)候影響下來水(shui)(shui)恢復，火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)盈利(li)(li)有望持續改善；中電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)聯預計2024年(nian)末風(feng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能裝機分別達到(dao)5.3億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、7.8億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，2024年(nian)風(feng)光新(xin)增裝機分別為0.9億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)、1.7億千(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)(wa)，裝機增長有望帶動新(xin)能源盈利(li)(li)提(ti)升(sheng)。

2023Q4基(ji)金(jin)增(zeng)配(pei)公用(yong)事(shi)業(ye)(ye)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)，持(chi)倉(cang)比(bi)(bi)例仍有(you)較大提升(sheng)空間：截至2023Q4，公用(yong)事(shi)業(ye)(ye)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)基(ji)金(jin)重倉(cang)持(chi)股(gu)市(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)比(bi)(bi)例為(wei)(wei)1.44%，較2023Q3增(zeng)加0.24pct，板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)關注度大幅提升(sheng)。2023Q4公用(yong)事(shi)業(ye)(ye)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)市(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)占A股(gu)全部市(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)的(de)(de)比(bi)(bi)例為(wei)(wei)3.28%，基(ji)金(jin)對于公用(yong)事(shi)業(ye)(ye)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)的(de)(de)超配(pei)比(bi)(bi)為(wei)(wei)-1.83%，板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)處于低(di)(di)配(pei)狀(zhuang)態，持(chi)倉(cang)比(bi)(bi)例有(you)較大提升(sheng)空間。2023Q4，公用(yong)事(shi)業(ye)(ye)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)重倉(cang)前5名(ming)個股(gu)為(wei)(wei)長(chang)江電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)、中國(guo)核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、華(hua)能(neng)國(guo)際(ji)、華(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)國(guo)際(ji)、國(guo)投(tou)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)，前5名(ming)個股(gu)占重倉(cang)公用(yong)股(gu)總市(shi)(shi)值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)72.46%，環比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)加1.84pct，基(ji)金(jin)對于龍(long)頭央企持(chi)倉(cang)集中度提升(sheng)。電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)整(zheng)體業(ye)(ye)績(ji)確定(ding)性高(gao)，分(fen)紅能(neng)力(li)(li)(li)強，未來也將持(chi)續(xu)受益(yi)央國(guo)企改革，我們持(chi)續(xu)看(kan)好電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)的(de)(de)長(chang)期(qi)投(tou)資價值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)。短期(qi)推薦具(ju)備政策催化(hua)、業(ye)(ye)績(ji)持(chi)續(xu)改善、估值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)有(you)提升(sheng)空間的(de)(de)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)；長(chang)期(qi)、低(di)(di)風險(xian)偏好資金(jin)重點(dian)布局核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、水電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)；逢低(di)(di)戰略性布局新能(neng)源板(ban)(ban)(ban)塊(kuai)(kuai)。個股(gu)關注華(hua)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)國(guo)際(ji)、皖能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)、浙能(neng)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)、華(hua)能(neng)國(guo)際(ji)、長(chang)江電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)(li)、川投(tou)能(neng)源、中國(guo)廣(guang)核等。

核心(xin)組(zu)合：

風(feng)險(xian)(xian)提示：政策力(li)度不(bu)及預(yu)期的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)；項(xiang)目進(jin)度不(bu)及預(yu)期的風(feng)險(xian)(xian);新能源發電出力(li)不(bu)及預(yu)期的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)；行業競爭加劇的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)；行業補貼退坡(po)的風(feng)險(xian)(xian)。

每(mei)經頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王曉波)

免責聲明：本文內容(rong)與數據(ju)僅供(gong)參考，不構成投資建議，使用前請(qing)核實。據(ju)此操作，風險自擔。