每經(jing)AI快訊，中國銀河10月21日發布研報，給予公用事業行業推薦評級。

事(shi)件：國(guo)家(jia)能源(yuan)局和國(guo)家(jia)統計局發布了電力(li)工(gong)業統計數據以及能源(yuan)生產情況：1-9月全(quan)國(guo)風電新(xin)增裝機(ji)39.12GW,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長17%;全(quan)國(guo)太陽能新(xin)增裝機(ji)160.88GW,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長25%;全(quan)國(guo)火電新(xin)增裝機(ji)33.43GW,同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)下(xia)降(jiang)15%。1-9月全(quan)社會用電量(liang)74094億(yi)千瓦(wa)時，同(tong)(tong)(tong)比(bi)(bi)增長7.9%。

9月風(feng)電(dian)、太陽(yang)能裝機(ji)均實(shi)現高增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。9月風(feng)電(dian)、太陽(yang)能新增(zeng)(zeng)裝機(ji)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為5.51GW、20.89GW,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)20.8%、32.4%;截(jie)至9月末(mo)，風(feng)電(dian)、太陽(yang)能累計裝機(ji)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為479.55GW、772.92GW,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)19.8%、48.3%,占總裝機(ji)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)例分(fen)(fen)(fen)別(bie)(bie)為15.2%、24.5%。國(guo)網能源(yuan)研究院在《中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)電(dian)力供(gong)需分(fen)(fen)(fen)析報告2024》中(zhong)(zhong)預計全年(nian)風(feng)電(dian)新增(zeng)(zeng)裝機(ji)90GW,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)16.5%;太陽(yang)能新增(zeng)(zeng)裝機(ji)在2023年(nian)高基(ji)(ji)數的基(ji)(ji)礎(chu)上進一步增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，達(da)240GW,同(tong)比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)8.8%,連續(xu)兩年(nian)突(tu)破(po)200GW。我國(guo)可再生能源(yuan)裝機(ji)在2023年(nian)歷史(shi)性(xing)超過化(hua)石能源(yuan)后(hou)，占比(bi)(bi)(bi)(bi)將繼(ji)續(xu)提(ti)升，裝機(ji)結構將持續(xu)優(you)化(hua)。

9月(yue)(yue)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)加快，水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)大幅(fu)下降(jiang)。9月(yue)(yue)規(gui)上工(gong)業(ye)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)8024億千瓦(wa)時，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)6.0%,增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)比8月(yue)(yue)份加快0.2個百(bai)分點；9月(yue)(yue)規(gui)上工(gong)業(ye)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)/太陽能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)8.9%/下降(jiang)14.6%/增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)2.8%/增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)31.6%/增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)12.7%,其中9月(yue)(yue)火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)較8月(yue)(yue)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)加5.2pct,9月(yue)(yue)水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)較8月(yue)(yue)大幅(fu)下降(jiang)25.3pct,主要是由(you)于來(lai)水(shui)(shui)偏弱(ruo)，其中長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)流(liu)域(yu)8-9月(yue)(yue)累計降(jiang)水(shui)(shui)量(liang)160.7毫米，較多年同期均值(zhi)偏少30%以上。長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)水(shui)(shui)利(li)委(wei)員會預測，長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)江(jiang)(jiang)流(liu)域(yu)10月(yue)(yue)來(lai)水(shui)(shui)仍偏少。我們預計四季度水(shui)(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)將(jiang)保持(chi)(chi)負增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，對火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)擠壓效應(ying)弱(ruo)，火(huo)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)(su)(su)(su)有望保持(chi)(chi)接近10%的高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)。

9月(yue)(yue)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)小幅(fu)回落，其中(zhong)高(gao)溫(wen)(wen)導致(zhi)三產、居(ju)民生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)。9月(yue)(yue)全(quan)社(she)會用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)8475億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)，同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)8.5%(8月(yue)(yue)同(tong)比增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)8.9%),增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)較(jiao)8月(yue)(yue)下降0.4pct。其中(zhong)，一(yi)產/二產/三產/居(ju)民生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)分別(bie)為(wei)121/5379/1652/1323億(yi)千瓦(wa)時(shi)，同(tong)比分別(bie)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)6.4%/3.6%/12.7%/27.8%,相(xiang)較(jiao)8月(yue)(yue)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)變化分別(bie)為(wei)+1.8pct/-0.4pct/+1.5pct/+4.1pct。我們(men)認為(wei)三產、居(ju)民生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)量(liang)增(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)大幅(fu)增(zeng)(zeng)加主要是由于9月(yue)(yue)高(gao)溫(wen)(wen)影(ying)響，根據(ju)中(zhong)國氣象局數(shu)據(ju)，9月(yue)(yue)全(quan)國平均氣溫(wen)(wen)18.8℃,較(jiao)常(chang)年同(tong)期(qi)偏(pian)高(gao)1.7℃,為(wei)1961年以(yi)來歷史(shi)同(tong)期(qi)最高(gao)。

投(tou)資建議：全年看好具備政策催化、業績持續改(gai)善(shan)、估(gu)值有提升空間的火電板塊；長期看好業績確定性(xing)高、分紅能(neng)力強的水電、核(he)電板塊。新能(neng)源已在底部區域。個股關注(zhu)華能(neng)國(guo)際(ji)、皖能(neng)電力、川(chuan)投(tou)能(neng)源、長江電力、中(zhong)國(guo)廣(guang)核(he)等(deng)。

風險(xian)(xian)提示：裝(zhuang)機規模不及預期的風險(xian)(xian)；煤炭價格(ge)大幅(fu)上(shang)漲的風險(xian)(xian)；上(shang)網電(dian)價下調的風險(xian)(xian)；行業(ye)競爭加劇的風險(xian)(xian)等。

每經(jing)頭條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王曉波)

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