中國證券報 2014-10-27 13:59:59
天相(xiang)投(tou)(tou)顧(gu)統計的(de)(de)2014年基(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)三(san)季(ji)報數據(ju)顯(xian)示(shi),公(gong)(gong)募(mu)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)三(san)季(ji)度前五十大(da)重倉股(gu)主要分(fen)布于(yu)消費品及服務、TMT、醫藥(yao)、金(jin)(jin)(jin)融、投(tou)(tou)資品等領域。不過,在(zai)此期間,醫藥(yao)股(gu)遭公(gong)(gong)募(mu)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)大(da)幅度減持(chi),其中(zhong)云南(nan)白藥(yao)被(bei)減持(chi)22.27億(yi)元。軍工股(gu)則(ze)被(bei)公(gong)(gong)募(mu)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)看(kan)好(hao),公(gong)(gong)募(mu)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)新增投(tou)(tou)資前五名(ming)和增持(chi)前十五大(da)股(gu)票中(zhong),分(fen)別有(you)三(san)只為軍工股(gu)。A股(gu)市場從(cong)三(san)季(ji)度開始顯(xian)現回暖跡象,一些在(zai)此期間取得不菲業績的(de)(de)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)經(jing)理(li)認為,未來市場仍(reng)(reng)將大(da)概率維持(chi)結(jie)構性行(xing)情。部分(fen)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)經(jing)理(li)仍(reng)(reng)堅定看(kan)好(hao)成長股(gu),也(ye)有(you)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)(jin)經(jing)理(li)建(jian)議謹慎配置成長股(gu),并密切關(guan)注超(chao)跌(die)藍籌的(de)(de)階段性機(ji)會(hui)。
減持百億醫藥股
據天相投顧對今(jin)年(nian)公募基金(jin)(jin)三(san)季(ji)(ji)報的統計,公募基金(jin)(jin)三(san)季(ji)(ji)度(du)的前五十大(da)重(zhong)倉股主要分布于消(xiao)費(fei)品(pin)及服務、TMT、醫(yi)藥、金(jin)(jin)融、投資品(pin)等(deng)領(ling)域,其中前十大(da)重(zhong)倉股分別(bie)是伊利股份、長安汽車、恒(heng)瑞醫(yi)藥、中國平安、恒(heng)生電(dian)子、萬科(ke)A、華東醫(yi)藥、東華軟件(jian)、格力(li)電(dian)器、海(hai)康威視.
值得關(guan)注的是,醫藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)股在三季度(du)遭(zao)到(dao)大(da)幅度(du)減持(chi)(chi)。天相投顧(gu)統計(ji)的數據顯示(shi),在減持(chi)(chi)前五十(shi)大(da)股票中(zhong)有十(shi)只(zhi)為醫藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)股,分別(bie)是云南白藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)、新華醫療(liao)、康(kang)美(mei)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)業(ye)、人福醫藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)、雙(shuang)鷺(lu)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)業(ye)、紅日藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)業(ye)、復星(xing)醫藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)、和佳股份、益佰制藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)和康(kang)緣藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)業(ye),累(lei)計(ji)減持(chi)(chi)市值達到(dao)153.38億(yi)元;其中(zhong),云南白藥(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)(yao)減持(chi)(chi)額度(du)最(zui)大(da),達到(dao)22.27億(yi)元。另外,在前述五十(shi)大(da)重倉(cang)股中(zhong),歌爾(er)聲(sheng)學、格力電(dian)器(qi)、貴(gui)州茅臺、藍色光標(biao)、美(mei)的集團、上(shang)海家化(hua)、興(xing)業(ye)銀行、伊利(li)股份、中(zhong)國平安等股票亦位列被減持(chi)(chi)前五十(shi)大(da)個股中(zhong)。
與(yu)醫(yi)藥股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)“慘遭拋棄(qi)”不同的(de)(de)是(shi),三(san)(san)季(ji)度公(gong)募(mu)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)大手筆(bi)買入軍(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)。在(zai)三(san)(san)季(ji)度公(gong)募(mu)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)新(xin)增(zeng)投資前(qian)(qian)五名中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)有(you)(you)(you)三(san)(san)只(zhi)(zhi)軍(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu),分別是(shi)位(wei)列(lie)(lie)第(di)二(er)的(de)(de)信威(wei)集團、位(wei)列(lie)(lie)第(di)四(si)的(de)(de)四(si)創電子和位(wei)列(lie)(lie)第(di)五的(de)(de)奧(ao)普光電。其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),有(you)(you)(you)十只(zhi)(zhi)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)持(chi)有(you)(you)(you)信威(wei)集團,持(chi)有(you)(you)(you)市(shi)值達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)6.25億元(yuan)(yuan);分別有(you)(you)(you)九只(zhi)(zhi)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)持(chi)有(you)(you)(you)四(si)創電子、奧(ao)普光電,持(chi)有(you)(you)(you)市(shi)值為4.91億元(yuan)(yuan)、4.41億元(yuan)(yuan)。在(zai)三(san)(san)季(ji)度增(zeng)持(chi)前(qian)(qian)十五大股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)票中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),有(you)(you)(you)三(san)(san)只(zhi)(zhi)為軍(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu),分別是(shi)位(wei)列(lie)(lie)第(di)四(si)的(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)航飛(fei)機(ji)(ji)(ji)、位(wei)列(lie)(lie)第(di)六的(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國重(zhong)工(gong)(gong)(gong),位(wei)列(lie)(lie)第(di)十三(san)(san)的(de)(de)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)航重(zhong)機(ji)(ji)(ji)。其中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong),分別有(you)(you)(you)二(er)十八只(zhi)(zhi)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)持(chi)有(you)(you)(you)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)航飛(fei)機(ji)(ji)(ji),增(zeng)持(chi)市(shi)值達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)13.38億元(yuan)(yuan);有(you)(you)(you)十三(san)(san)只(zhi)(zhi)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)持(chi)有(you)(you)(you)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國重(zhong)工(gong)(gong)(gong),增(zeng)值市(shi)值達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)11.48億元(yuan)(yuan);有(you)(you)(you)十二(er)只(zhi)(zhi)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)持(chi)有(you)(you)(you)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)航重(zhong)機(ji)(ji)(ji),增(zeng)持(chi)市(shi)值達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)8.45億元(yuan)(yuan)。這(zhe)意味著,公(gong)募(mu)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)累計買入前(qian)(qian)述6只(zhi)(zhi)軍(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)48.88億元(yuan)(yuan)。與(yu)此同時,軍(jun)工(gong)(gong)(gong)股(gu)(gu)(gu)(gu)亦(yi)為公(gong)募(mu)基(ji)金(jin)(jin)貢獻(xian)不菲的(de)(de)收益,如三(san)(san)季(ji)度信威(wei)集團的(de)(de)漲幅(fu)(fu)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)126.96%,中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)航重(zhong)機(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)漲幅(fu)(fu)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)117.5%,奧(ao)普光電的(de)(de)漲幅(fu)(fu)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)88.65%、四(si)創電子的(de)(de)漲幅(fu)(fu)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)65.85%、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)航飛(fei)機(ji)(ji)(ji)的(de)(de)漲幅(fu)(fu)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)49.95%、中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國重(zhong)工(gong)(gong)(gong)的(de)(de)漲幅(fu)(fu)達(da)(da)(da)(da)(da)到(dao)36.12%。
結構性行情將延續
盡(jin)管A股市場(chang)(chang)在三季度(du)顯現回暖跡象(xiang),但部分在三季度(du)取得不(bu)菲業績的基(ji)金經理(li)則(ze)認為,未來市場(chang)(chang)仍將(jiang)大概(gai)率(lv)維持結構(gou)性行情。
中郵戰略新興(xing)產(chan)業基金(jin)經(jing)(jing)理(li)認為,在(zai)改革預期的(de)主導下,經(jing)(jing)濟結構轉型將(jiang)(jiang)進入加速期,經(jing)(jing)濟增長驅動力將(jiang)(jiang)由之(zhi)前的(de)房地產(chan)產(chan)業鏈以及(ji)重(zhong)工業逐步(bu)升級為高端制造業、新型消費以及(ji)現代服務(wu)業。因此,市(shi)場(chang)未(wei)來大概率仍(reng)將(jiang)(jiang)維持(chi)結構性行情的(de)演(yan)繹。在(zai)行業配置方(fang)面(mian),依然看好(hao)代表未(wei)來中國經(jing)(jing)濟發展方(fang)向的(de)戰略新興(xing)產(chan)業,如互聯網產(chan)業、信息安全產(chan)業、生物醫藥(yao)、環保等行業。
華商主題精選(xuan)基(ji)金經(jing)理認為(wei),就目前發(fa)展態勢(shi),中(zhong)(zhong)國的(de)復(fu)興勢(shi)不可擋(dang)也(ye)面臨外部的(de)重(zhong)(zhong)重(zhong)(zhong)阻力,軍工行(xing)(xing)業(ye)在此(ci)過程中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)戰略(lve)地(di)位持(chi)續凸顯;作為(wei)過去十(shi)多年(nian)主導(dao)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)的(de)房地(di)產(chan)(chan)問題越來越多,去地(di)產(chan)(chan)化(hua)(hua)趨勢(shi)已成,作為(wei)體(ti)量大、鏈條(tiao)長的(de)軍工行(xing)(xing)業(ye)極有可能成為(wei)未來中(zhong)(zhong)國經(jing)濟的(de)主導(dao)產(chan)(chan)業(ye)。因此(ci),軍工行(xing)(xing)業(ye)可能會成為(wei)未來很長時間內最具成長性的(de)領域(yu),也(ye)必(bi)然(ran)成為(wei)未來投資(zi)組合中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)核心配置(zhi)(zhi)。全球智能化(hua)(hua)的(de)趨勢(shi)使得(de)集成電(dian)路產(chan)(chan)業(ye)成為(wei)持(chi)續的(de)最大受益行(xing)(xing)業(ye),因此(ci)涉及芯片設(she)計、封裝(zhuang)、制造、原料(liao)和(he)設(she)備環節的(de)企業(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)持(chi)續快速成長,也(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)成為(wei)其投資(zi)組合的(de)重(zhong)(zhong)要(yao)配置(zhi)(zhi)。此(ci)外,生物醫藥、新材料(liao)、新能源、文化(hua)(hua)傳媒也(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)是未來非常有彈性的(de)需(xu)求點(dian),這些領域(yu)的(de)投資(zi)機會必(bi)然(ran)層出不窮,也(ye)將(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)(jiang)是該基(ji)金投資(zi)的(de)重(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)方向。
大摩多因(yin)子(zi)策略股(gu)票基(ji)金(jin)經理則(ze)表示對未來市場(chang)中(zhong)長期(qi)看好,但是對于市場(chang)短期(qi)的判(pan)斷,在觀察過去一(yi)段(duan)時間的成長股(gu)行情,基(ji)本面因(yin)子(zi)的表現乏善可陳,交(jiao)易行為(wei)與(yu)分析師預(yu)期(qi)漸成主導,可見(jian)投機情緒較(jiao)為(wei)濃厚(hou),同時創業板已處高位,風險暴露(lu)較(jiao)高,故建議謹慎配(pei)置成長股(gu),并密(mi)切關注(zhu)超跌(die)藍籌的階段(duan)性機會(hui)。
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