一(yi)個時期(qi)以來(lai)(lai)，隨著中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國經(jing)濟下(xia)(xia)行壓力(li)加(jia)大(da)，理(li)論(lun)界對中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國經(jing)濟出現了一(yi)些(xie)悲觀情緒。基于(yu)對中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國人(ren)口紅利減少(shao)、潛在(zai)增長(chang)率下(xia)(xia)降的預(yu)期(qi)，有觀點(dian)甚(shen)至(zhi)認為中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國將(jiang)不可(ke)避免落入(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)收入(ru)陷阱(jing)”，無法通過可(ke)持續(xu)的中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)速(su)增長(chang)在(zai)不遠的將(jiang)來(lai)(lai)躋(ji)身高(gao)收入(ru)國家行列。過去半個世(shi)紀，確(que)有一(yi)些(xie)經(jing)濟體在(zai)成為中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)收入(ru)國家后(hou)陷入(ru)漫(man)長(chang)的停滯期(qi)，難以繼續(xu)向高(gao)收入(ru)國家邁(mai)進。但與(yu)此同時，也有一(yi)些(xie)經(jing)濟體順利地從中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)收入(ru)國家發展為高(gao)收入(ru)國家。事實(shi)表明，“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)收入(ru)陷阱(jing)”并(bing)非宿命，而是(shi)需要克服的障礙。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國只要應對得當，大(da)可(ke)不必過于(yu)悲觀。

“中等收入陷阱”的內涵和實質

“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)阱(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)”的(de)概(gai)(gai)念(nian)是世(shi)界銀行(xing)在(zai)(zai)2006年(nian)(nian)《東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)亞經(jing)(jing)濟發展報告》中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)最(zui)早提出的(de)，其(qi)(qi)(qi)內涵主要是指：某(mou)些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)人均國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)民收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)達到(dao)(dao)3000美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)以后便陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)經(jing)(jing)濟增長(chang)停滯期(qi)，在(zai)(zai)相當(dang)(dang)長(chang)時間(jian)內無法(fa)成(cheng)功躋身高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)行(xing)列。按照世(shi)界銀行(xing)的(de)最(zui)新定義，人均國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)民收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)在(zai)(zai)824美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)以下的(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)屬于(yu)(yu)低收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)；在(zai)(zai)825美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)至3254美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)之間(jian)的(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)屬于(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低等(deng)(deng)(deng)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)；在(zai)(zai)3255美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)至10064美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)之間(jian)的(de)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)屬于(yu)(yu)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)等(deng)(deng)(deng)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)；超(chao)過10065美(mei)(mei)元(yuan)則(ze)為(wei)高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)。據亞洲(zhou)(zhou)開發銀行(xing)的(de)研究(jiu)，如(ru)果一個(ge)(ge)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)進入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)行(xing)列超(chao)過28年(nian)(nian)未(wei)(wei)達到(dao)(dao)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)標準，即可認(ren)為(wei)其(qi)(qi)(qi)落(luo)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)阱(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)”；進入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)行(xing)列但未(wei)(wei)能在(zai)(zai)14年(nian)(nian)內進入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)行(xing)列，則(ze)可看作落(luo)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)阱(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)”。以此衡量(liang)，1950年(nian)(nian)以來(lai)新出現的(de)52個(ge)(ge)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，35個(ge)(ge)已(yi)落(luo)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)阱(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)”，其(qi)(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)30個(ge)(ge)落(luo)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)阱(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)”，5個(ge)(ge)落(luo)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)阱(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)”。在(zai)(zai)這35個(ge)(ge)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，13個(ge)(ge)為(wei)拉美(mei)(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，11個(ge)(ge)為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)北非(fei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，6個(ge)(ge)為(wei)撒哈拉以南非(fei)洲(zhou)(zhou)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，3個(ge)(ge)為(wei)亞洲(zhou)(zhou)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)（馬來(lai)西亞、菲律賓和(he)斯里(li)蘭卡），2個(ge)(ge)為(wei)歐(ou)洲(zhou)(zhou)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)（阿爾巴尼(ni)亞和(he)羅(luo)馬尼(ni)亞）。其(qi)(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，一些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)阱(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)”中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)已(yi)經(jing)(jing)陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)了相當(dang)(dang)長(chang)時間(jian)，如(ru)秘魯(lu)、哥倫比亞和(he)南非(fei)等(deng)(deng)(deng)已(yi)在(zai)(zai)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)阱(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)”中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)受困長(chang)達60余年(nian)(nian)，委內瑞拉在(zai)(zai)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)(xian)(xian)(xian)阱(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)”中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)也已(yi)超(chao)過60年(nian)(nian)。與這些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)形成(cheng)鮮明對比的(de)是，另外一些(xie)經(jing)(jing)濟體特(te)別是東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)亞新興經(jing)(jing)濟體只用了不到(dao)(dao)10年(nian)(nian)時間(jian)就完成(cheng)了由中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)(deng)(deng)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)向高(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)的(de)跨越。對此，世(shi)界銀行(xing)用“東(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)亞奇跡”的(de)概(gai)(gai)念(nian)予(yu)以肯定。

為何(he)有些國家可以在(zai)較短(duan)時間由中等(deng)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)階(jie)段(duan)過渡到高收(shou)(shou)入(ru)階(jie)段(duan)，而大部(bu)分中等(deng)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國家卻(que)出現了停滯，遲遲無(wu)法(fa)跨越“陷阱”？在(zai)中等(deng)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)發(fa)展階(jie)段(duan)，導致國家之間產(chan)生分化的因(yin)素(su)很多，包(bao)括人口紅(hong)利、勞動力供(gong)給增(zeng)速(su)、勞動生產(chan)率增(zeng)速(su)、經濟開(kai)放(fang)程(cheng)度(du)、市場準入(ru)限制降低、外部(bu)環境(jing)、社會穩定程(cheng)度(du)以及(ji)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)分配公平程(cheng)度(du)等(deng)。人們(men)發(fa)現，落入(ru)“陷阱”的國家通常(chang)具有以下特征：既喪失了與低收(shou)(shou)入(ru)、低工資經濟體(ti)在(zai)制造業方面的競爭優勢，也(ye)沒有能力同發(fa)達經濟體(ti)在(zai)高技術創新領域展開(kai)競爭，經濟無(wu)法(fa)由依(yi)靠(kao)廉價(jia)勞動力或資源能源類自然稟賦向依(yi)靠(kao)高生產(chan)率導向的增(zeng)長(chang)模式轉變(bian)。

實際上(shang)，“收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)阱”是(shi)指一(yi)(yi)種均(jun)衡狀態，即(ji)在一(yi)(yi)些促進人均(jun)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)提高(gao)的(de)(de)因(yin)素(su)發揮(hui)作用(yong)之(zhi)后，由于(yu)此類(lei)因(yin)素(su)具有某(mou)種程度的(de)(de)不(bu)可持續性，其他制約因(yin)素(su)又(you)會將其作用(yong)抵消，因(yin)而人均(jun)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)增長陷(xian)入(ru)(ru)(ru)停(ting)滯(zhi)。這也說明(ming)，在不(bu)同(tong)經濟(ji)發展階段，經濟(ji)增長的(de)(de)動(dong)力機制是(shi)不(bu)同(tong)的(de)(de)，在低(di)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)階段能夠有效促進經濟(ji)增長的(de)(de)動(dong)力因(yin)素(su)到(dao)中等收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)階段很可能失(shi)效。可見，能否(fou)在中等收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)階段成功(gong)轉換增長動(dong)力機制、調整發展結構(gou)，是(shi)一(yi)(yi)個國家能否(fou)跨越(yue)“中等收(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)陷(xian)阱”的(de)(de)關鍵。

中國面臨的風險和機遇

自1978年(nian)(nian)(nian)實行改革開放以(yi)來，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)呈現高(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)、高(gao)儲(chu)蓄、高(gao)投(tou)資(zi)、高(gao)消(xiao)耗、環境(jing)代(dai)價高(gao)、勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)密集和(he)出口導(dao)向等(deng)特(te)點，這種增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)方式(shi)被某些國(guo)(guo)(guo)外學者稱為“不(bu)可持續(xu)(xu)的增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)”。新世(shi)紀以(yi)來，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)人(ren)(ren)均國(guo)(guo)(guo)民收入(ru)快速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)，由2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)的930美元躍升(sheng)到2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)的7575美元。目前中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)已處(chu)在(zai)(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)等(deng)收入(ru)發(fa)展(zhan)階段，既(ji)面(mian)(mian)臨前所(suo)未有的向高(gao)收入(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家行列(lie)躍升(sheng)的機(ji)遇，也面(mian)(mian)臨落入(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)收入(ru)陷阱”的危(wei)險(xian)。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)發(fa)展(zhan)進入(ru)新常(chang)態(tai)，這是趨勢性(xing)(xing)而非周(zhou)期(qi)性(xing)(xing)的，推動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)高(gao)速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的傳統動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)機(ji)制正在(zai)(zai)弱化，經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)面(mian)(mian)臨諸(zhu)如勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)成(cheng)(cheng)本上(shang)升(sheng)、資(zi)源環境(jing)瓶頸趨緊、一(yi)(yi)些領域出現資(zi)產泡沫化趨勢、投(tou)資(zi)效率降(jiang)低和(he)出口增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)受阻等(deng)一(yi)(yi)系列(lie)現實約束。特(te)別是面(mian)(mian)對兩個(ge)既(ji)成(cheng)(cheng)事實：一(yi)(yi)是由高(gao)速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)轉向中(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)速(su)(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)；二(er)是由于人(ren)(ren)口老齡化，2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)適(shi)齡勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)人(ren)(ren)口絕對數量減(jian)少345萬，2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)和(he)2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)也連續(xu)(xu)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)，當然從適(shi)齡勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)人(ren)(ren)口下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)到勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)減(jian)少一(yi)(yi)般(ban)有幾年(nian)(nian)(nian)的滯后期(qi)，但可以(yi)預見中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)很快會(hui)出現負增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)。在(zai)(zai)分(fen)析經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)的長(chang)(chang)期(qi)趨勢時，可以(yi)使(shi)用以(yi)下(xia)(xia)(xia)公式(shi)：一(yi)(yi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)潛在(zai)(zai)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)等(deng)于勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)生產率增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)加(jia)上(shang)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)。英(ying)國(guo)(guo)(guo)《經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)學人(ren)(ren)》雜志曾做(zuo)過(guo)研(yan)究，2001年(nian)(nian)(nian)至(zhi)2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)生產率增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)達(da)到11.8%，2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)至(zhi)2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)為7.2%，下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)趨勢明顯。由于勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)接近于零，7.2%加(jia)上(shang)0，所(suo)以(yi)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)潛在(zai)(zai)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)率降(jiang)到7%左右。勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)(gong)(gong)(gong)給(gei)(gei)減(jian)少、人(ren)(ren)口老齡化加(jia)劇以(yi)及(ji)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)生產率增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)下(xia)(xia)(xia)降(jiang)，都是造成(cheng)(cheng)經(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)(jing)濟(ji)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速(su)(su)下(xia)(xia)(xia)滑的重要因素。

東(dong)亞成功(gong)跨(kua)越(yue)“陷(xian)阱(jing)”的(de)(de)經濟體(ti)都是在(zai)人(ren)口老(lao)齡(ling)化加速(su)(su)之前邁入高(gao)(gao)收入行(xing)列的(de)(de)。上世(shi)紀后半葉，歐(ou)洲國(guo)(guo)家在(zai)應對人(ren)口老(lao)齡(ling)化問題上主要采取(qu)引進移民、加大(da)國(guo)(guo)民人(ren)力(li)資本投(tou)資和提(ti)高(gao)(gao)法定退(tui)(tui)休年齡(ling)等(deng)對策。根據(ju)中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)情，顯然只有后兩(liang)種對策可以借鑒。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)目前的(de)(de)法定退(tui)(tui)休年齡(ling)偏(pian)低(di)，通過調整退(tui)(tui)休制度，可以適當緩解勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)供(gong)給(gei)下降的(de)(de)不利局(ju)面(mian)。中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)人(ren)力(li)資源的(de)(de)整體(ti)素質偏(pian)低(di)，勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力(li)供(gong)給(gei)結構不合理，導(dao)致勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)生產率(lv)(lv)水(shui)平較低(di)、增速(su)(su)下滑。2014年，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)生產率(lv)(lv)僅相當于美國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)20%、韓(han)國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)30%。未來10年，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)能否跨(kua)越(yue)“中(zhong)(zhong)等(deng)收入陷(xian)阱(jing)”，提(ti)高(gao)(gao)勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)生產率(lv)(lv)顯得尤為重要。

關于如何提(ti)(ti)高勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)生(sheng)產率(lv)，近年來理(li)論界討論很多。大家發(fa)現，一(yi)國在教育、科技研發(fa)、基礎設施等領域的(de)(de)(de)投入(ru)是促進(jin)創新、提(ti)(ti)高勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)生(sheng)產率(lv)、推動(dong)(dong)產業(ye)轉(zhuan)型升級并最終跨(kua)越“中等收入(ru)陷阱”的(de)(de)(de)“金鑰匙”。在教育和研發(fa)方面的(de)(de)(de)投資(zi)將轉(zhuan)化(hua)為勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)生(sheng)產率(lv)和全要(yao)素生(sheng)產率(lv)的(de)(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)高，可(ke)以為經(jing)濟可(ke)持續發(fa)展提(ti)(ti)供(gong)新動(dong)(dong)力。包括(kuo)索洛(luo)模型在內(nei)的(de)(de)(de)一(yi)系列經(jing)濟學理(li)論都表明(ming)，在一(yi)定程度(du)上(shang)，技術進(jin)步、勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力質量(liang)的(de)(de)(de)提(ti)(ti)高比增(zeng)加資(zi)本(ben)和勞(lao)動(dong)(dong)力供(gong)給(gei)對經(jing)濟增(zeng)長的(de)(de)(de)意(yi)義(yi)更為重大。

目前，中國(guo)(guo)(guo)教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)支出(chu)僅占GDP的(de)(de)4%，而(er)美國(guo)(guo)(guo)長(chang)期穩定在(zai)(zai)5.5%左右，韓國(guo)(guo)(guo)也超過5%，芬蘭更(geng)是高(gao)(gao)(gao)達(da)7%。全民受教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)程度和(he)(he)勞動(dong)力質(zhi)量的(de)(de)提高(gao)(gao)(gao)可(ke)以在(zai)(zai)一(yi)(yi)(yi)定程度上抵(di)消人口紅(hong)利減少對經(jing)濟增長(chang)的(de)(de)負面效應(ying)(ying)。此(ci)外，中國(guo)(guo)(guo)應(ying)(ying)繼續推進教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)公平。拉美一(yi)(yi)(yi)些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家由于收(shou)入(ru)分配極其不(bu)平等(deng)，導(dao)致(zhi)教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)不(bu)平等(deng)加(jia)劇(ju)，進而(er)使社(she)會不(bu)同(tong)收(shou)入(ru)階(jie)層逐漸被(bei)固化。這既不(bu)利于市場(chang)競爭機制的(de)(de)形成，也不(bu)利于知識和(he)(he)科技在(zai)(zai)不(bu)同(tong)收(shou)入(ru)階(jie)層間的(de)(de)擴散，最終阻礙勞動(dong)生產率在(zai)(zai)全社(she)會范(fan)圍的(de)(de)提升(sheng)。在(zai)(zai)研發(fa)方面，中國(guo)(guo)(guo)政府和(he)(he)企(qi)業的(de)(de)研發(fa)支出(chu)僅占GDP的(de)(de)2%，相比(bi)美國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)3%、日本的(de)(de)3.4%、韓國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)3.36%、芬蘭的(de)(de)3.84%，仍存在(zai)(zai)較大(da)差(cha)距。對中國(guo)(guo)(guo)這樣(yang)快速發(fa)展的(de)(de)大(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)來(lai)說，通過學習發(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家現有技術所形成的(de)(de)后發(fa)優勢是遞(di)減的(de)(de)，經(jing)濟發(fa)展對科技進步和(he)(he)自(zi)主(zhu)創新(xin)的(de)(de)需求(qiu)越(yue)(yue)來(lai)越(yue)(yue)大(da)。中國(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)濟的(de)(de)根(gen)本出(chu)路在(zai)(zai)于加(jia)強(qiang)自(zi)主(zhu)創新(xin)。應(ying)(ying)借鑒(jian)一(yi)(yi)(yi)些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家成功跨越(yue)(yue)“中等(deng)收(shou)入(ru)陷阱”的(de)(de)經(jing)驗，加(jia)大(da)教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)和(he)(he)研發(fa)投入(ru)，提高(gao)(gao)(gao)國(guo)(guo)(guo)民受教(jiao)(jiao)育(yu)(yu)程度和(he)(he)勞動(dong)力素(su)質(zhi)，提高(gao)(gao)(gao)自(zi)主(zhu)創新(xin)能力，進而(er)大(da)幅(fu)提高(gao)(gao)(gao)勞動(dong)生產率。

靠發揮優勢、釋放潛能躋身高收入國家行列

在(zai)充分(fen)認識風險和挑戰的(de)(de)(de)同(tong)(tong)時(shi)(shi)，也應(ying)看到中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)所具(ju)備(bei)的(de)(de)(de)有利(li)條件和優(you)(you)勢(shi)。一(yi)(yi)是雖(sui)然(ran)適齡勞(lao)動(dong)人口已達峰(feng)值，但隨著50后、60后勞(lao)動(dong)力(li)(li)逐(zhu)步被80后、90后勞(lao)動(dong)力(li)(li)替代，勞(lao)動(dong)力(li)(li)的(de)(de)(de)整體受教育程度也就是人力(li)(li)資(zi)(zi)本(ben)在(zai)未來10年會加速增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)，從而大(da)大(da)抵(di)消(xiao)勞(lao)動(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)給下降(jiang)的(de)(de)(de)負面(mian)效應(ying)，使中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)有望(wang)趕在(zai)2030年人口紅利(li)完(wan)全消(xiao)失前邁入高收入國(guo)(guo)家行(xing)列。二是隨著“營改增(zeng)(zeng)”等財稅體制方面(mian)改革(ge)的(de)(de)(de)推進，其(qi)促進企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)轉型升級的(de)(de)(de)效應(ying)開始顯現。“營改增(zeng)(zeng)”不(bu)僅可以(yi)打通二、三產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)抵(di)扣鏈條，降(jiang)低制造業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)成本(ben)，鼓(gu)勵科(ke)技創新，還有利(li)于一(yi)(yi)、二產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)內部生(sheng)產性勞(lao)務(wu)更(geng)多地向外(wai)剝離，在(zai)促進第三產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)市場規模(mo)擴大(da)的(de)(de)(de)同(tong)(tong)時(shi)(shi)，推動(dong)各產業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)之間更(geng)為(wei)廣(guang)泛的(de)(de)(de)分(fen)工協作(zuo)(zuo)與(yu)融(rong)合發(fa)展，為(wei)經(jing)濟增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)提供(gong)內生(sheng)動(dong)力(li)(li)。今(jin)后一(yi)(yi)個時(shi)(shi)期，這種效應(ying)釋放將更(geng)加明(ming)顯。三是近幾年金(jin)融(rong)體制改革(ge)的(de)(de)(de)深化，特(te)別是資(zi)(zi)本(ben)市場改革(ge)，有助于推動(dong)金(jin)融(rong)在(zai)支(zhi)持研發(fa)創新和優(you)(you)化資(zi)(zi)源配置(zhi)方面(mian)發(fa)揮(hui)更(geng)大(da)作(zuo)(zuo)用。四是國(guo)(guo)家淘(tao)汰落后和過(guo)剩產能的(de)(de)(de)相關(guan)政策正倒逼企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)轉型升級。五是國(guo)(guo)際金(jin)融(rong)危機以(yi)來對基(ji)礎(chu)設施的(de)(de)(de)大(da)規模(mo)投資(zi)(zi)對整體經(jing)濟效率(lv)(lv)的(de)(de)(de)外(wai)溢效應(ying)將在(zai)未來10年逐(zhu)漸顯現，有利(li)于進一(yi)(yi)步提高潛在(zai)增(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)率(lv)(lv)。

當(dang)然，潛(qian)在增長率(lv)(lv)不會自動(dong)轉(zhuan)化(hua)為實際增長。要使這一(yi)潛(qian)在能(neng)力(li)變為現實，必須通(tong)過(guo)改(gai)革(ge)清除(chu)障(zhang)(zhang)礙。除(chu)了加(jia)(jia)(jia)大教育和研發(fa)(fa)方面的投入，政(zheng)府(fu)還應(ying)在以下幾方面積極發(fa)(fa)揮(hui)作用：一(yi)是加(jia)(jia)(jia)快戶(hu)籍制(zhi)(zhi)度改(gai)革(ge)，提(ti)(ti)高城(cheng)鎮化(hua)水平，打(da)破勞(lao)動(dong)力(li)市場城(cheng)鄉(xiang)(xiang)分割，推動(dong)勞(lao)動(dong)力(li)從生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率(lv)(lv)較低(di)的農(nong)業(ye)(ye)部(bu)門轉(zhuan)移到工業(ye)(ye)和服務業(ye)(ye)部(bu)門。縱觀世界(jie)，成功(gong)跨越“中(zhong)等收入陷阱”的國(guo)家都在城(cheng)鄉(xiang)(xiang)結構上實現了根(gen)本轉(zhuan)變，完成了工業(ye)(ye)化(hua)、城(cheng)鎮化(hua)和農(nong)業(ye)(ye)現代化(hua)的歷史任(ren)務，使農(nong)業(ye)(ye)勞(lao)動(dong)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率(lv)(lv)趕上社會平均(jun)勞(lao)動(dong)生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率(lv)(lv)，城(cheng)鄉(xiang)(xiang)居(ju)民(min)人均(jun)收入水平大體相當(dang)。二(er)是加(jia)(jia)(jia)大對知識產(chan)(chan)權(quan)的保護(hu)力(li)度。創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)的主體是企業(ye)(ye)，創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)的土壤是機制(zhi)(zhi)和環境(jing)。政(zheng)府(fu)應(ying)為企業(ye)(ye)提(ti)(ti)供創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)環境(jing)和制(zhi)(zhi)度保障(zhang)(zhang)，激勵大眾創(chuang)業(ye)(ye)、萬眾創(chuang)新(xin)(xin)(xin)。此外，應(ying)通(tong)過(guo)堅持不懈反腐敗、整(zheng)頓吏(li)治(zhi)，通(tong)過(guo)加(jia)(jia)(jia)快轉(zhuan)變政(zheng)府(fu)職能(neng)，特別是通(tong)過(guo)全面推進依法治(zhi)國(guo)，為企業(ye)(ye)營造法治(zhi)化(hua)經營環境(jing)。

總之，只要(yao)貫(guan)徹落實黨的(de)十八大和(he)十八屆三中(zhong)、四中(zhong)全會(hui)部署的(de)改革發展(zhan)任務，合理借鑒東(dong)亞成(cheng)功經濟體的(de)追趕(gan)經驗，中(zhong)國(guo)就一定(ding)能在未來10年繼續保持中(zhong)高速增長，跨越“中(zhong)等收入陷阱”，成(cheng)功躋身高收入國(guo)家行列。

（作者為亞洲(zhou)基礎(chu)設(she)施投資(zi)銀行多邊臨時秘(mi)書處秘(mi)書長(chang)）