一個時期以來，隨著中(zhong)國(guo)經濟(ji)下行(xing)壓力加大，理論界對(dui)中(zhong)國(guo)經濟(ji)出現了一些悲(bei)觀(guan)情緒。基(ji)于對(dui)中(zhong)國(guo)人口紅利減少、潛在(zai)(zai)(zai)增長率下降的(de)(de)預(yu)期，有觀(guan)點甚至認(ren)為中(zhong)國(guo)將不可避免落入(ru)“中(zhong)等(deng)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)陷(xian)阱”，無(wu)法(fa)通過(guo)可持續的(de)(de)中(zhong)高速增長在(zai)(zai)(zai)不遠(yuan)的(de)(de)將來躋身(shen)高收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國(guo)家(jia)(jia)行(xing)列。過(guo)去半個世紀，確有一些經濟(ji)體(ti)在(zai)(zai)(zai)成為中(zhong)等(deng)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國(guo)家(jia)(jia)后(hou)陷(xian)入(ru)漫長的(de)(de)停滯期，難以繼續向高收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國(guo)家(jia)(jia)邁進。但與此同時，也有一些經濟(ji)體(ti)順利地從中(zhong)等(deng)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國(guo)家(jia)(jia)發(fa)展為高收(shou)(shou)入(ru)國(guo)家(jia)(jia)。事實表明(ming)，“中(zhong)等(deng)收(shou)(shou)入(ru)陷(xian)阱”并(bing)非宿命，而是需要克服的(de)(de)障礙。中(zhong)國(guo)只(zhi)要應對(dui)得當，大可不必過(guo)于悲(bei)觀(guan)。

“中等收入陷阱”的內涵和實質

“中等收入陷阱”的概念是世界銀行在2006年《東亞經濟發展報告》中最早提出的，其內涵主要是指：某些國家在人均國民收入達到3000美元以后便陷入經濟增長停滯期，在相當長時間內無法成功躋身高收入國家行列。按照世界銀(yin)行(xing)(xing)的最(zui)新定(ding)義，人均國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)民收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)在(zai)(zai)(zai)824美(mei)元(yuan)以下的國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)屬(shu)(shu)于低收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)；在(zai)(zai)(zai)825美(mei)元(yuan)至3254美(mei)元(yuan)之間的國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)屬(shu)(shu)于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低等收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)；在(zai)(zai)(zai)3255美(mei)元(yuan)至10064美(mei)元(yuan)之間的國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)屬(shu)(shu)于中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)(gao)等收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)；超(chao)(chao)過(guo)10065美(mei)元(yuan)則(ze)為(wei)高(gao)(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)。據亞洲開發銀(yin)行(xing)(xing)的研究，如果一個(ge)(ge)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)進入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)行(xing)(xing)列超(chao)(chao)過(guo)28年(nian)未達到(dao)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)標準，即可認(ren)為(wei)其(qi)(qi)落入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷阱(jing)(jing)”；進入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)行(xing)(xing)列但未能(neng)在(zai)(zai)(zai)14年(nian)內進入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)高(gao)(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)行(xing)(xing)列，則(ze)可看作落入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷阱(jing)(jing)”。以此衡量，1950年(nian)以來新出現的52個(ge)(ge)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，35個(ge)(ge)已(yi)落入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷阱(jing)(jing)”，其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)30個(ge)(ge)落入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷阱(jing)(jing)”，5個(ge)(ge)落入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷阱(jing)(jing)”。在(zai)(zai)(zai)這35個(ge)(ge)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，13個(ge)(ge)為(wei)拉(la)美(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，11個(ge)(ge)為(wei)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)東(dong)北非國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，6個(ge)(ge)為(wei)撒哈拉(la)以南非洲國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)，3個(ge)(ge)為(wei)亞洲國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)（馬來西亞、菲律賓(bin)和斯里蘭卡），2個(ge)(ge)為(wei)歐洲國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)（阿爾巴尼(ni)亞和羅馬尼(ni)亞）。其(qi)(qi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)，一些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)在(zai)(zai)(zai)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷阱(jing)(jing)”中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)已(yi)經(jing)陷了(le)相當長(chang)(chang)時(shi)(shi)間，如秘魯、哥倫比亞和南非等已(yi)在(zai)(zai)(zai)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)低收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷阱(jing)(jing)”中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)受困長(chang)(chang)達60余年(nian)，委內瑞(rui)拉(la)在(zai)(zai)(zai)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)陷阱(jing)(jing)”中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)也已(yi)超(chao)(chao)過(guo)60年(nian)。與這些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家(jia)(jia)(jia)(jia)形成鮮(xian)明對比的是，另外(wai)一些(xie)經(jing)濟體特別是東(dong)亞新興經(jing)濟體只(zhi)用了(le)不到(dao)10年(nian)時(shi)(shi)間就完(wan)成了(le)由中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)向高(gao)(gao)(gao)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)(ru)的跨(kua)越。對此，世界銀(yin)行(xing)(xing)用“東(dong)亞奇跡(ji)”的概(gai)念予(yu)以肯定(ding)。

為何有些國(guo)家(jia)可以(yi)在較短(duan)時間由中等收(shou)入(ru)階(jie)段過渡到高(gao)收(shou)入(ru)階(jie)段，而大部分中等收(shou)入(ru)國(guo)家(jia)卻(que)出現了(le)停滯，遲(chi)遲(chi)無法(fa)跨越“陷(xian)阱”？在中等收(shou)入(ru)發展(zhan)階(jie)段，導致國(guo)家(jia)之(zhi)間產生分化(hua)的(de)(de)因素很多(duo)，包括人口(kou)紅利(li)、勞動力(li)供給增速、勞動生產率(lv)增速、經濟(ji)開放程度、市場準入(ru)限制(zhi)降低、外(wai)部環(huan)境(jing)、社會(hui)穩定程度以(yi)及收(shou)入(ru)分配公平程度等。人們發現，落入(ru)“陷(xian)阱”的(de)(de)國(guo)家(jia)通(tong)常具有以(yi)下特征：既喪(sang)失了(le)與低收(shou)入(ru)、低工資經濟(ji)體在制(zhi)造業方面(mian)的(de)(de)競(jing)爭優勢，也沒有能力(li)同(tong)發達經濟(ji)體在高(gao)技術創新領(ling)域展(zhan)開競(jing)爭，經濟(ji)無法(fa)由依(yi)靠(kao)廉價勞動力(li)或資源能源類(lei)自然(ran)稟賦向依(yi)靠(kao)高(gao)生產率(lv)導向的(de)(de)增長模(mo)式轉變(bian)。

實際上，“收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)陷(xian)阱”是指一(yi)種均衡(heng)狀態，即在(zai)(zai)(zai)一(yi)些促進人(ren)(ren)均收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)提高的(de)因(yin)素(su)(su)發(fa)揮作用之后，由于此類因(yin)素(su)(su)具有某種程度的(de)不(bu)可(ke)(ke)持續(xu)性，其他制約(yue)因(yin)素(su)(su)又(you)會將(jiang)其作用抵消(xiao)，因(yin)而人(ren)(ren)均收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)增長陷(xian)入(ru)(ru)停滯。這也說(shuo)明，在(zai)(zai)(zai)不(bu)同(tong)(tong)經濟(ji)發(fa)展階(jie)段(duan)，經濟(ji)增長的(de)動(dong)力機制是不(bu)同(tong)(tong)的(de)，在(zai)(zai)(zai)低收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)階(jie)段(duan)能(neng)夠有效(xiao)促進經濟(ji)增長的(de)動(dong)力因(yin)素(su)(su)到中(zhong)等收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)階(jie)段(duan)很可(ke)(ke)能(neng)失(shi)效(xiao)。可(ke)(ke)見，能(neng)否(fou)(fou)在(zai)(zai)(zai)中(zhong)等收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)階(jie)段(duan)成(cheng)功轉換(huan)增長動(dong)力機制、調(diao)整發(fa)展結構，是一(yi)個(ge)國家能(neng)否(fou)(fou)跨(kua)越“中(zhong)等收(shou)(shou)(shou)入(ru)(ru)陷(xian)阱”的(de)關鍵(jian)。

中國面臨的風險和機遇

自1978年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)實(shi)行(xing)改革開放(fang)以(yi)(yi)來，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟呈現高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)、高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)儲蓄、高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)投資(zi)、高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)消耗、環(huan)境代價高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)、勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)密集和出口(kou)導向等(deng)特點，這種(zhong)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)方式被某些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)外學(xue)者稱為(wei)“不可持(chi)續(xu)的(de)(de)(de)(de)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)”。新(xin)世紀以(yi)(yi)來，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)人(ren)均國(guo)(guo)(guo)民收(shou)入(ru)(ru)快速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)，由(you)2000年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)930美元躍升(sheng)到2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)7575美元。目前中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)已(yi)處(chu)在(zai)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)等(deng)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)發展階段，既面(mian)臨(lin)前所(suo)未有(you)的(de)(de)(de)(de)向高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)國(guo)(guo)(guo)家行(xing)列躍升(sheng)的(de)(de)(de)(de)機(ji)(ji)遇，也面(mian)臨(lin)落入(ru)(ru)“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)收(shou)入(ru)(ru)陷阱”的(de)(de)(de)(de)危險。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟發展進入(ru)(ru)新(xin)常態，這是(shi)趨勢性而非周期(qi)(qi)性的(de)(de)(de)(de)，推動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)傳統動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)機(ji)(ji)制正在(zai)弱化(hua)(hua)，經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)面(mian)臨(lin)諸如勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)成(cheng)本上(shang)升(sheng)、資(zi)源環(huan)境瓶(ping)頸趨緊、一(yi)些(xie)領域出現資(zi)產(chan)泡沫化(hua)(hua)趨勢、投資(zi)效率(lv)降(jiang)(jiang)低和出口(kou)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)受阻等(deng)一(yi)系列現實(shi)約束。特別是(shi)面(mian)對兩個(ge)既成(cheng)事實(shi)：一(yi)是(shi)由(you)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)轉(zhuan)向中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高(gao)(gao)(gao)(gao)速增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)；二是(shi)由(you)于(yu)(yu)人(ren)口(kou)老齡化(hua)(hua)，2012年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)適(shi)齡勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)人(ren)口(kou)絕對數量減少345萬，2013年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)和2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)也連續(xu)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)，當然(ran)從適(shi)齡勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)人(ren)口(kou)下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)到勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)給(gei)減少一(yi)般有(you)幾年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)滯(zhi)后期(qi)(qi)，但(dan)可以(yi)(yi)預見中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)給(gei)很(hen)快會出現負增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)。在(zai)分析(xi)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)的(de)(de)(de)(de)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)期(qi)(qi)趨勢時，可以(yi)(yi)使用以(yi)(yi)下(xia)公式：一(yi)國(guo)(guo)(guo)潛在(zai)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速等(deng)于(yu)(yu)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)生(sheng)產(chan)率(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速加上(shang)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)給(gei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速。英國(guo)(guo)(guo)《經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟學(xue)人(ren)》雜志曾做過研究，2001年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)至2008年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)生(sheng)產(chan)率(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速達到11.8%，2011年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)至2014年(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)(nian)為(wei)7.2%，下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)趨勢明顯(xian)。由(you)于(yu)(yu)勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)給(gei)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速接近于(yu)(yu)零，7.2%加上(shang)0，所(suo)以(yi)(yi)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)潛在(zai)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)(chang)(chang)率(lv)降(jiang)(jiang)到7%左(zuo)右。勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)力(li)(li)供(gong)給(gei)減少、人(ren)口(kou)老齡化(hua)(hua)加劇(ju)以(yi)(yi)及勞(lao)(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)(dong)生(sheng)產(chan)率(lv)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速下(xia)降(jiang)(jiang)，都(dou)是(shi)造(zao)成(cheng)經(jing)(jing)(jing)濟增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速下(xia)滑的(de)(de)(de)(de)重要因素。

東亞成(cheng)功跨越“陷(xian)阱”的(de)(de)經濟體都是在人(ren)(ren)口老(lao)齡(ling)化加(jia)速(su)之前(qian)邁入(ru)(ru)高(gao)(gao)收入(ru)(ru)行(xing)列的(de)(de)。上(shang)世紀后半葉，歐(ou)洲(zhou)國(guo)(guo)家在應對人(ren)(ren)口老(lao)齡(ling)化問題上(shang)主(zhu)要采取引(yin)進移民、加(jia)大國(guo)(guo)民人(ren)(ren)力(li)資(zi)本投資(zi)和(he)提(ti)高(gao)(gao)法定(ding)退(tui)休年(nian)(nian)齡(ling)等對策。根據中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)國(guo)(guo)情，顯然只有(you)后兩種對策可以(yi)借(jie)鑒。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)目前(qian)的(de)(de)法定(ding)退(tui)休年(nian)(nian)齡(ling)偏低(di)，通過(guo)調整(zheng)(zheng)退(tui)休制度，可以(yi)適當緩解勞(lao)(lao)動力(li)供給(gei)下降的(de)(de)不利局面。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)人(ren)(ren)力(li)資(zi)源的(de)(de)整(zheng)(zheng)體素質偏低(di)，勞(lao)(lao)動力(li)供給(gei)結構不合(he)理(li)，導致勞(lao)(lao)動生產率水平較低(di)、增(zeng)速(su)下滑。2014年(nian)(nian)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)勞(lao)(lao)動生產率僅相(xiang)當于(yu)美國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)20%、韓國(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)30%。未來10年(nian)(nian)，中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)能否跨越“中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)等收入(ru)(ru)陷(xian)阱”，提(ti)高(gao)(gao)勞(lao)(lao)動生產率顯得尤(you)為重要。

關于如(ru)何提(ti)高(gao)(gao)勞(lao)動生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率(lv)，近年來(lai)理論界討論很多。大家(jia)發現，一(yi)國在教育、科技(ji)研(yan)發、基礎(chu)設施(shi)等領域的投(tou)入是(shi)促(cu)進創新、提(ti)高(gao)(gao)勞(lao)動生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率(lv)、推動產(chan)(chan)業轉型(xing)升(sheng)級并最終跨越“中等收入陷阱”的“金(jin)鑰匙”。在教育和(he)研(yan)發方面的投(tou)資(zi)將轉化為勞(lao)動生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率(lv)和(he)全要(yao)素生(sheng)產(chan)(chan)率(lv)的提(ti)高(gao)(gao)，可(ke)以為經濟可(ke)持續發展提(ti)供(gong)新動力。包(bao)括索洛模型(xing)在內的一(yi)系列經濟學理論都(dou)表(biao)明，在一(yi)定程度上，技(ji)術進步、勞(lao)動力質(zhi)量的提(ti)高(gao)(gao)比增(zeng)加資(zi)本(ben)和(he)勞(lao)動力供(gong)給對經濟增(zeng)長的意義更(geng)為重大。

目前，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)支出(chu)(chu)僅(jin)占GDP的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)4%，而美(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)長期(qi)穩定在(zai)(zai)5.5%左右，韓(han)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)也超過(guo)5%，芬蘭更是(shi)高(gao)達(da)7%。全民受(shou)教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)度(du)和(he)(he)勞動(dong)力質(zhi)量的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提高(gao)可以在(zai)(zai)一(yi)定程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)度(du)上(shang)抵消人口紅利(li)(li)減(jian)(jian)少對(dui)經(jing)(jing)濟增長的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)負面(mian)效應(ying)。此外，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)應(ying)繼續推進教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)公平。拉美(mei)一(yi)些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家由于(yu)收(shou)入(ru)分配極其(qi)不(bu)平等(deng)(deng)，導(dao)致(zhi)教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)不(bu)平等(deng)(deng)加(jia)劇，進而使社會不(bu)同(tong)收(shou)入(ru)階(jie)層(ceng)逐漸被(bei)固(gu)化。這(zhe)既不(bu)利(li)(li)于(yu)市場競爭機(ji)制的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)形(xing)成，也不(bu)利(li)(li)于(yu)知識和(he)(he)科(ke)(ke)技(ji)在(zai)(zai)不(bu)同(tong)收(shou)入(ru)階(jie)層(ceng)間(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)擴散，最終阻礙(ai)勞動(dong)生產率在(zai)(zai)全社會范圍的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)提升。在(zai)(zai)研(yan)發(fa)方面(mian)，中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)政府和(he)(he)企業(ye)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)研(yan)發(fa)支出(chu)(chu)僅(jin)占GDP的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)2%，相比美(mei)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)3%、日本的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)3.4%、韓(han)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)3.36%、芬蘭的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)3.84%，仍存在(zai)(zai)較大(da)差距(ju)。對(dui)中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)這(zhe)樣(yang)快速發(fa)展的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)大(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)來(lai)說，通過(guo)學習發(fa)達(da)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家現有(you)技(ji)術(shu)所形(xing)成的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)后發(fa)優(you)勢是(shi)遞減(jian)(jian)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)，經(jing)(jing)濟發(fa)展對(dui)科(ke)(ke)技(ji)進步和(he)(he)自主創新(xin)的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)需求越來(lai)越大(da)。中(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)經(jing)(jing)濟的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)根本出(chu)(chu)路在(zai)(zai)于(yu)加(jia)強(qiang)自主創新(xin)。應(ying)借鑒(jian)一(yi)些(xie)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)家成功跨越“中(zhong)等(deng)(deng)收(shou)入(ru)陷阱”的(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)(de)經(jing)(jing)驗(yan)，加(jia)大(da)教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)和(he)(he)研(yan)發(fa)投入(ru)，提高(gao)國(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)(guo)民受(shou)教(jiao)育(yu)(yu)程(cheng)(cheng)(cheng)度(du)和(he)(he)勞動(dong)力素質(zhi)，提高(gao)自主創新(xin)能力，進而大(da)幅提高(gao)勞動(dong)生產率。

靠發揮優勢、釋放潛能躋身高收入國家行列

在(zai)(zai)充分(fen)認識風險和(he)挑(tiao)戰的(de)同時(shi)，也(ye)應(ying)看到中(zhong)國所具備(bei)的(de)有(you)利(li)條件和(he)優勢。一是(shi)雖然適齡勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)人(ren)口(kou)已達峰值，但隨(sui)著(zhu)50后(hou)、60后(hou)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力逐步被80后(hou)、90后(hou)勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力替代，勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力的(de)整體(ti)(ti)受教(jiao)育(yu)程度也(ye)就(jiu)是(shi)人(ren)力資本在(zai)(zai)未(wei)來10年會加速(su)增(zeng)長(chang)，從而大(da)大(da)抵消勞(lao)(lao)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力供(gong)給下(xia)降的(de)負面(mian)效應(ying)，使中(zhong)國有(you)望趕在(zai)(zai)2030年人(ren)口(kou)紅利(li)完全(quan)消失前(qian)邁入高收入國家行列。二(er)(er)是(shi)隨(sui)著(zhu)“營(ying)改增(zeng)”等財稅體(ti)(ti)制(zhi)方面(mian)改革的(de)推進(jin)，其促(cu)進(jin)企(qi)業、行業轉型升(sheng)級的(de)效應(ying)開始(shi)顯現(xian)。“營(ying)改增(zeng)”不僅可以(yi)打通二(er)(er)、三產(chan)業抵扣鏈條，降低制(zhi)造業成本，鼓勵科(ke)技創新，還(huan)有(you)利(li)于(yu)一、二(er)(er)產(chan)業內部(bu)生(sheng)產(chan)性(xing)勞(lao)(lao)務更多地向(xiang)外(wai)(wai)剝離，在(zai)(zai)促(cu)進(jin)第三產(chan)業市場規模(mo)擴大(da)的(de)同時(shi)，推動(dong)(dong)(dong)各產(chan)業之間更為廣(guang)泛的(de)分(fen)工協作與融合(he)發展，為經濟(ji)增(zeng)長(chang)提(ti)供(gong)內生(sheng)動(dong)(dong)(dong)力。今后(hou)一個時(shi)期(qi)，這種(zhong)效應(ying)釋(shi)放(fang)將更加明顯。三是(shi)近幾年金(jin)融體(ti)(ti)制(zhi)改革的(de)深化，特別是(shi)資本市場改革，有(you)助于(yu)推動(dong)(dong)(dong)金(jin)融在(zai)(zai)支持研發創新和(he)優化資源配置方面(mian)發揮(hui)更大(da)作用。四是(shi)國家淘汰(tai)落后(hou)和(he)過(guo)剩產(chan)能的(de)相關(guan)政策(ce)正倒逼(bi)企(qi)業轉型升(sheng)級。五(wu)是(shi)國際金(jin)融危機(ji)以(yi)來對基礎設施的(de)大(da)規模(mo)投資對整體(ti)(ti)經濟(ji)效率的(de)外(wai)(wai)溢效應(ying)將在(zai)(zai)未(wei)來10年逐漸顯現(xian)，有(you)利(li)于(yu)進(jin)一步提(ti)高潛在(zai)(zai)增(zeng)長(chang)率。

當(dang)然，潛(qian)在增長率(lv)(lv)不(bu)會(hui)自動(dong)(dong)轉(zhuan)化為實(shi)(shi)際增長。要使這(zhe)一(yi)潛(qian)在能(neng)力變(bian)為現(xian)實(shi)(shi)，必須通過(guo)(guo)改革(ge)清除障礙。除了加大(da)教育和(he)研(yan)發方面(mian)的(de)投(tou)入，政(zheng)府還應(ying)在以下幾方面(mian)積極發揮(hui)作用：一(yi)是加快(kuai)戶籍制(zhi)度改革(ge)，提高城(cheng)鎮(zhen)化水(shui)平，打(da)破勞動(dong)(dong)力市場城(cheng)鄉(xiang)分割，推動(dong)(dong)勞動(dong)(dong)力從生產率(lv)(lv)較低的(de)農業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)部門轉(zhuan)移到工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)和(he)服務業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)部門。縱觀世界，成(cheng)功跨越(yue)“中等收入陷阱(jing)”的(de)國(guo)家都(dou)在城(cheng)鄉(xiang)結構上(shang)實(shi)(shi)現(xian)了根本轉(zhuan)變(bian)，完成(cheng)了工業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)化、城(cheng)鎮(zhen)化和(he)農業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)現(xian)代化的(de)歷(li)史(shi)任務，使農業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)勞動(dong)(dong)生產率(lv)(lv)趕上(shang)社會(hui)平均勞動(dong)(dong)生產率(lv)(lv)，城(cheng)鄉(xiang)居(ju)民人均收入水(shui)平大(da)體(ti)相(xiang)當(dang)。二是加大(da)對知識產權(quan)的(de)保護力度。創新(xin)的(de)主體(ti)是企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，創新(xin)的(de)土壤是機制(zhi)和(he)環(huan)境(jing)。政(zheng)府應(ying)為企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)提供創新(xin)環(huan)境(jing)和(he)制(zhi)度保障，激(ji)勵大(da)眾(zhong)(zhong)創業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、萬(wan)眾(zhong)(zhong)創新(xin)。此外(wai)，應(ying)通過(guo)(guo)堅持不(bu)懈反(fan)腐敗(bai)、整頓(dun)吏治，通過(guo)(guo)加快(kuai)轉(zhuan)變(bian)政(zheng)府職能(neng)，特別是通過(guo)(guo)全(quan)面(mian)推進依法(fa)治國(guo)，為企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)營造法(fa)治化經營環(huan)境(jing)。

總之，只要貫徹落實黨的十八大和十八屆三中(zhong)(zhong)、四(si)中(zhong)(zhong)全(quan)會部署的改革(ge)發展任(ren)務，合理借鑒東亞成功(gong)經濟體的追趕經驗，中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)就一(yi)定能在(zai)未來10年繼續保(bao)持中(zhong)(zhong)高速增長，跨越“中(zhong)(zhong)等收入陷阱”，成功(gong)躋身(shen)高收入國(guo)家行列。

（作者為亞洲基(ji)礎設施投資銀行(xing)多邊臨時秘書處秘書長）