每經AI快訊，中國銀河03月20日發布研報稱：給予社會服務推薦業（維持）評級。

板(ban)塊表現(xian)：本周(zhou)社服行業漲(zhang)跌幅為-2.98%，在所(suo)有31個行業中周(zhou)漲(zhang)跌幅排名第30位。其(qi)中，各(ge)細分板(ban)塊漲(zhang)跌幅分別為：教育(yu)（-0.1%），旅游及景區顧熹閩。

重點(dian)公告(gao)&事件：文(wen)化和旅(lv)游(you)部(bu)啟動智慧旅(lv)游(you)沉浸式體(ti)驗新空(kong)間培(pei)育試點(dian)工作。

核(he)心觀點(dian)(dian)：免(mian)稅(shui)：行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)整合推(tui)(tui)(tui)進，Q2低基數(shu)(shu)+政(zheng)策催(cui)化(hua)有(you)望(wang)(wang)(wang)驅(qu)動(dong)估(gu)值(zhi)修(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)。本(ben)周中(zhong)(zhong)免(mian)公(gong)告擬出(chu)資(zi)12.28億參與中(zhong)(zhong)出(chu)服(fu)增資(zi)擴(kuo)(kuo)股事項，疊(die)加(jia)公(gong)司入選(xuan)央企新(xin)(xin)一(yi)(yi)(yi)輪對標世界一(yi)(yi)(yi)流(liu)企業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)名單，以(yi)及2022年(nian)港股IPO后(hou)現金儲備進一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)增強，后(hou)續進一(yi)(yi)(yi)步(bu)的(de)外(wai)延擴(kuo)(kuo)張值(zhi)得期(qi)(qi)(qi)待。短期(qi)(qi)(qi)免(mian)稅(shui)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)基本(ben)面受Q1備貨(huo)不足+3月(yue)淡(dan)季(ji)(ji)較(jiao)(jiao)為(wei)平淡(dan)，但是進入Q2后(hou)低基數(shu)(shu)+市(shi)內(nei)免(mian)稅(shui)政(zheng)策有(you)望(wang)(wang)(wang)落(luo)地均對估(gu)值(zhi)構成(cheng)(cheng)催(cui)化(hua)。推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)龍頭中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)免(mian)，海(hai)南(nan)機場(chang)，建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)王府井、海(hai)汽集(ji)團(tuan)（海(hai)旅(lv)免(mian)稅(shui)）、海(hai)南(nan)發(fa)展(zhan)（海(hai)發(fa)控(kong)）、上海(hai)機場(chang)、白(bai)云機場(chang)、百聯(lian)股份。會(hui)(hui)展(zhan)：米(mi)奧印(yin)尼(ni)展(zhan)會(hui)(hui)大獲成(cheng)(cheng)功(gong)，景氣(qi)(qi)提(ti)升(sheng)+外(wai)延。米(mi)奧會(hui)(hui)展(zhan)于(yu)印(yin)尼(ni)成(cheng)(cheng)功(gong)舉辦中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)（印(yin)尼(ni)）貿易博覽會(hui)(hui)，展(zhan)位全面售罄驗(yan)證(zheng)我們(men)此前推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)邏輯(ji)。我們(men)預(yu)(yu)計(ji)(ji)受益(yi)疫情期(qi)(qi)(qi)間(jian)累計(ji)(ji)的(de)需(xu)求釋(shi)放(fang)(fang)+政(zheng)策支持，國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)外(wai)展(zhan)+內(nei)展(zhan)覽業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)今(jin)年(nian)景氣(qi)(qi)有(you)望(wang)(wang)(wang)持續提(ti)升(sheng)，重(zhong)點(dian)(dian)推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)海(hai)外(wai)自辦展(zhan)龍頭米(mi)奧會(hui)(hui)展(zhan)，建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)蘭生股份。旅(lv)游：重(zhong)申(shen)澳門(men)博彩(cai)板塊推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)邏輯(ji)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)游建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)天目(mu)湖(hu)、大豐(feng)實(shi)(shi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)。當前澳門(men)博彩(cai)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)類(lei)似2016-2018年(nian)情景，景氣(qi)(qi)提(ti)升(sheng)+結構改善有(you)望(wang)(wang)(wang)推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)板塊迎接戴維斯雙擊，短期(qi)(qi)(qi)回調受淡(dan)季(ji)(ji)+美(mei)聯(lian)儲加(jia)息節(jie)(jie)奏影響，建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)美(mei)高梅中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)、金沙中(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)(guo)(guo)、銀(yin)河(he)娛樂。此外(wai)看(kan)好國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)游Q2表現，建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)天目(mu)湖(hu)（增量項目(mu)釋(shi)放(fang)(fang)成(cheng)(cheng)長(chang)性，實(shi)(shi)控(kong)人(ren)變更帶來(lai)資(zi)源(yuan)整合預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)）、大豐(feng)實(shi)(shi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)（國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)文體旅(lv)裝備龍頭，轉型中(zhong)(zhong)的(de)“小(xiao)宋城”）。酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)：商(shang)旅(lv)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇加(jia)速推(tui)(tui)(tui)動(dong)經營(ying)(ying)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)超(chao)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)，重(zhong)點(dian)(dian)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)加(jia)盟(meng)商(shang)后(hou)續開(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)信心。節(jie)(jie)后(hou)商(shang)務出(chu)行(xing)快速回升(sheng)驅(qu)動(dong)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)經營(ying)(ying)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)超(chao)預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇，未來(lai)需(xu)重(zhong)點(dian)(dian)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)加(jia)盟(meng)商(shang)開(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)信心。中(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)看(kan)，國(guo)(guo)(guo)內(nei)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)期(qi)(qi)(qi)的(de)供需(xu)、競爭格(ge)局均較(jiao)(jiao)為(wei)清晰(xi)，頭部酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)受益(yi)于(yu)供給出(chu)清+輕資(zi)產擴(kuo)(kuo)張+中(zhong)(zhong)高端升(sheng)級，仍是疫后(hou)行(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)蘇最(zui)大受益(yi)者，推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)錦江(jiang)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、首旅(lv)酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、華住集(ji)團(tuan)-S、君亭酒(jiu)(jiu)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)。餐(can)(can)飲(yin)(yin)：經營(ying)(ying)數(shu)(shu)據(ju)穩步(bu)修(xiu)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)，預(yu)(yu)期(qi)(qi)(qi)穩定后(hou)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)開(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)和新(xin)(xin)品牌孵化(hua)進展(zhan)。2月(yue)上市(shi)餐(can)(can)企經營(ying)(ying)恢(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)良好，奈雪/海(hai)倫(lun)司等已恢(hui)復(fu)(fu)(fu)(fu)營(ying)(ying)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)門(men)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)同(tong)比均超(chao)2019年(nian)。此外(wai)，伴隨多個餐(can)(can)飲(yin)(yin)品牌開(kai)放(fang)(fang)加(jia)盟(meng)/類(lei)加(jia)盟(meng)機制(zhi)，我們(men)認為(wei)未來(lai)2-3年(nian)或將是強勢(shi)能(neng)品牌開(kai)店(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)提(ti)速的(de)最(zui)佳(jia)階段，推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)強品牌勢(shi)能(neng)餐(can)(can)企九毛九、海(hai)倫(lun)司、奈雪的(de)茶(cha)。

風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)提(ti)示：疫(yi)情(qing)二次傳播風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)；宏觀(guan)經濟下(xia)行風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)；行業競爭格局惡(e)化風(feng)(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。

每經頭(tou)條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 尹華祿)

免責聲明(ming)：本(ben)文內容與(yu)數據僅供(gong)參考(kao)，不(bu)構成(cheng)投資建議(yi)，使用前(qian)請(qing)核(he)實。據此操作，風險(xian)自擔。