每經AI快(kuai)訊，中國銀河05月29日發布研報稱：給予社會服務行業推薦（維持）評級。

重點公(gong)告&事件(jian)：（1）深圳機場與深免(mian)集團出資1億元設立合資公司(si)拓展經營(ying)免(mian)稅業務；（2）珠海免(mian)稅拱北(bei)口(kou)岸進境(jing)免(mian)稅店(dian)煥(huan)新亮相；（3）暑期(qi)“旅(lv)游熱”提前點(dian)燃平(ping)臺618多個酒(jiu)店(dian)品牌銷量破萬件(jian)。

核心(xin)觀(guan)點(dian)：免(mian)稅(shui)：繼續(xu)等待數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)改善(shan)、政策催(cui)化(hua)。維(wei)持前期(qi)(qi)判斷，行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)高頻(pin)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)改善(shan)仍需等待、居民消費(fei)預期(qi)(qi)較為(wei)(wei)悲(bei)觀(guan)仍是板塊(kuai)承壓(ya)主(zhu)要原因，后續(xu)重(zhong)點(dian)關(guan)(guan)注期(qi)(qi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)改善(shan)拐點(dian)以(yi)及(ji)政策催(cui)化(hua)。中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)(qi)維(wei)度(du)，我們(men)認為(wei)(wei)國(guo)內(nei)免(mian)稅(shui)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)消費(fei)回(hui)流(liu)邏輯未變(bian)，頂奢品(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)開始進駐(zhu)免(mian)稅(shui)運(yun)營商項目已(yi)反映相關(guan)(guan)趨勢變(bian)化(hua)，短期(qi)(qi)回(hui)調后將(jiang)為(wei)(wei)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)(qi)布局提供(gong)(gong)契機(ji)(ji)。推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)(jian)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)免(mian)，海南機(ji)(ji)場，建議關(guan)(guan)注王(wang)府井(jing)、海汽集(ji)團(tuan)(tuan)、海南發(fa)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)、上海機(ji)(ji)場、白云(yun)機(ji)(ji)場、百(bai)聯股(gu)份。會(hui)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)：行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)旺季來(lai)臨，板塊(kuai)二季度(du)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績兌現概率(lv)高。會(hui)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)自4月開始進入(ru)旺季，Q2板塊(kuai)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)績從絕對和相對值角度(du)看(kan)(kan)(kan)將(jiang)迎來(lai)快速提升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。近期(qi)(qi)米奧會(hui)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)減(jian)持事(shi)項已(yi)落(luo)地，我們(men)持續(xu)看(kan)(kan)(kan)好公(gong)司自主(zhu)辦(ban)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)、合作辦(ban)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)、外延并購三輪驅(qu)動(dong)下(xia)，在一(yi)帶一(yi)路、RCEP市場的成長(chang)(chang)空間。新增(zeng)推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)(jian)國(guo)資(zi)會(hui)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)龍頭(tou)蘭生股(gu)份（困境反轉+會(hui)展(zhan)(zhan)(zhan)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)戰略(lve)打開成長(chang)(chang)空間）。旅(lv)游：首(shou)(shou)推(tui)(tui)(tui)大豐實業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)，關(guan)(guan)注港股(gu)博彩板塊(kuai)回(hui)調機(ji)(ji)會(hui)。持續(xu)看(kan)(kan)(kan)好Q2國(guo)內(nei)游+澳門博彩業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)景氣上行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)，Q2-Q3關(guan)(guan)注亞運(yun)會(hui)主(zhu)題(ti)催(cui)化(hua)。結(jie)合估值及(ji)增(zeng)量項目儲備情況，旅(lv)游板塊(kuai)推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)(jian)大豐實業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)、天目湖，博彩建議關(guan)(guan)注美高梅中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)、金(jin)沙中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)國(guo)、銀河娛樂。酒(jiu)店(dian)：高頻(pin)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)保持穩定，持續(xu)關(guan)(guan)注加盟商開店(dian)信心(xin)變(bian)化(hua)。國(guo)內(nei)酒(jiu)店(dian)行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)長(chang)(chang)期(qi)(qi)供(gong)(gong)需、競爭格局均較為(wei)(wei)清晰，頭(tou)部酒(jiu)店(dian)集(ji)團(tuan)(tuan)受(shou)(shou)益(yi)于供(gong)(gong)給出清+輕資(zi)產擴張+中(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)高端升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)級，仍是疫(yi)后行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)復蘇最大受(shou)(shou)益(yi)者，推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)(jian)錦(jin)江酒(jiu)店(dian)、首(shou)(shou)旅(lv)酒(jiu)店(dian)、華(hua)住集(ji)團(tuan)(tuan)-S、君亭酒(jiu)店(dian)。餐(can)飲(yin)：行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)門店(dian)止跌(die)回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)，看(kan)(kan)(kan)好餐(can)飲(yin)品(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)連(lian)鎖(suo)化(hua)率(lv)有望持續(xu)提升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。據(ju)番茄資(zi)本數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)，1Q23全國(guo)餐(can)飲(yin)門店(dian)數(shu)(shu)(shu)(shu)量較2022年增(zeng)加13萬家，為(wei)(wei)疫(yi)后首(shou)(shou)次止跌(die)回(hui)升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)。我們(men)維(wei)持前期(qi)(qi)判斷，伴隨多(duo)個餐(can)飲(yin)品(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)開放加盟/類加盟機(ji)(ji)制，我們(men)認為(wei)(wei)未來(lai)2-3年將(jiang)是強勢能(neng)品(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)開店(dian)提速的最佳階段(duan)，行(xing)(xing)(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)(ye)連(lian)鎖(suo)化(hua)率(lv)提升(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)有望延續(xu)，推(tui)(tui)(tui)薦(jian)(jian)強品(pin)(pin)牌(pai)(pai)勢能(neng)餐(can)企九(jiu)毛九(jiu)、海倫司、奈雪(xue)的茶(cha)。

風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)提(ti)示：疫情二(er)次(ci)傳播風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)；宏觀經濟(ji)下(xia)行(xing)風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)；行(xing)業競爭格局惡(e)化風(feng)(feng)險(xian)(xian)。

每經頭(tou)條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 王曉波)

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