每經AI快訊，2024年1月21日，德邦證券發布研報點評環保與公用事業(ye)行(xing)業(ye)。

行情回顧：本周各板(ban)塊(kuai)普遍下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)，申萬(2021)公(gong)用事業行業指(zhi)數下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)3.53%，環(huan)保行業指(zhi)數下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)6.36%。公(gong)用事業板(ban)塊(kuai)中(zhong)熱電跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅較(jiao)大(da)，下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)7.94%，環(huan)保板(ban)塊(kuai)中(zhong)園林跌(die)(die)(die)(die)幅較(jiao)大(da)，下(xia)跌(die)(die)(die)(die)10.84%。

行業動態

環保：

（1）推進(jin)水(shui)(shui)(shui)泥(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)超低排放，監測需求有望提(ti)升(sheng)。1月(yue)19日，生態環境(jing)部(bu)、國(guo)(guo)家發展(zhan)改革委、工業(ye)(ye)(ye)和信息化(hua)部(bu)、財政部(bu)、交(jiao)通(tong)運輸部(bu)聯合發布《關于(yu)推進(jin)實施(shi)水(shui)(shui)(shui)泥(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)行業(ye)(ye)(ye)超低排放的意見》。《意見》目(mu)標(biao)(biao)到(dao)2025年底(di)前，重點(dian)(dian)區域取得明顯進(jin)展(zhan)，力爭50%水(shui)(shui)(shui)泥(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)熟料產(chan)能完成(cheng)(cheng)改造(zao)，區域內(nei)大型國(guo)(guo)有企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)集團基本(ben)完成(cheng)(cheng)有組織、無組織超低排放改造(zao)；到(dao)2028年底(di)前，重點(dian)(dian)區域水(shui)(shui)(shui)泥(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)熟料生產(chan)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)基本(ben)完成(cheng)(cheng)改造(zao)，全(quan)國(guo)(guo)力爭80%水(shui)(shui)(shui)泥(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)熟料產(chan)能完成(cheng)(cheng)改造(zao)。排放標(biao)(biao)準方面，在基準含氧量10%的條件下，水(shui)(shui)(shui)泥(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)窯及窯尾(wei)余熱利用(yong)系統廢(fei)氣顆(ke)粒物(wu)、二氧化(hua)硫、氮(dan)氧化(hua)物(wu)排放濃度小(xiao)(xiao)時均值(zhi)分別不高于(yu)10mg/m3、35mg/m3、50mg/m3。達到(dao)超低排放的水(shui)(shui)(shui)泥(ni)(ni)(ni)(ni)企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)每月(yue)生產(chan)時間(jian)至少95%以(yi)上時段排放濃度小(xiao)(xiao)時均值(zhi)滿足上述要(yao)求。重點(dian)(dian)推薦：環境(jing)監測儀器(qi)龍頭(tou)【聚光科技(ji)】；分析檢測儀器(qi)領域領先企(qi)業(ye)(ye)(ye)【皖儀科技(ji)】；建(jian)議(yi)關注(zhu)：低溫SCR脫硝專家【同興環保(bao)】。

（2）強(qiang)化(hua)空氣(qi)質量(liang)日(ri)常管控(kong)，推(tui)進城市空氣(qi)質量(liang)管控(kong)規(gui)范化(hua)。貴(gui)州省人民政府辦(ban)公(gong)廳正式印發(fa)《貴(gui)州省城市環境空氣(qi)質量(liang)管理(li)(li)辦(ban)法(fa)(fa)》，《辦(ban)法(fa)(fa)》從(cong)環境監(jian)測、污染(ran)源監(jian)控(kong)、污染(ran)物協同(tong)控(kong)制等方(fang)面強(qiang)化(hua)日(ri)常管控(kong)，分類(lei)設定突出(chu)領域具體(ti)管控(kong)要求(qiu)，細化(hua)應急管控(kong)各個環節(jie)具體(ti)措施，為地方(fang)各級政府和(he)相關部門提供具體(ti)的操(cao)作指南，推(tui)進城市環境空氣(qi)質量(liang)管控(kong)工作科(ke)學化(hua)、規(gui)范化(hua)和(he)制度化(hua)。重點推(tui)薦：環境監(jian)測與碳監(jian)測儀器(qi)領軍者【雪迪(di)龍(long)】；建(jian)議關注：大氣(qi)治理(li)(li)龍(long)頭，綜合治理(li)(li)服務商【清新環境】。

公用：

（1）山東發(fa)(fa)布(bu)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市場(chang)規(gui)則征求意(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)(jian)稿(gao)，發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)側結(jie)(jie)算(suan)顆粒度由1小時(shi)調整至15分(fen)鐘。山東能(neng)(neng)(neng)監(jian)辦(ban)發(fa)(fa)布(bu)關于公開(kai)征求《山東電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市場(chang)規(gui)則(試(shi)行(xing))》(征求意(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)(jian)稿(gao))意(yi)(yi)(yi)見(jian)(jian)的通(tong)知(zhi)。其中提(ti)到優化(hua)電(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)市場(chang)結(jie)(jie)算(suan)機制(zhi)，將發(fa)(fa)電(dian)(dian)側結(jie)(jie)算(suan)顆粒度由1小時(shi)調整為15分(fen)鐘，能(neng)(neng)(neng)夠更有(you)效(xiao)激勵調節性電(dian)(dian)源參(can)與系統調節。重點推(tui)薦：國內(nei)新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源功(gong)率(lv)預測龍頭并(bing)已(yi)開(kai)展虛(xu)擬(ni)電(dian)(dian)廠業務(wu)的【國能(neng)(neng)(neng)日新】；南(nan)網旗下、電(dian)(dian)源清潔化(hua)+電(dian)(dian)網智(zhi)能(neng)(neng)(neng)化(hua)的儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)龍頭【南(nan)網科技(ji)】；能(neng)(neng)(neng)源數字化(hua)+能(neng)(neng)(neng)源互聯網雙輪(lun)驅(qu)動的【朗新科技(ji)】；電(dian)(dian)網、新能(neng)(neng)(neng)源、儲(chu)能(neng)(neng)(neng)三(san)大板(ban)塊并(bing)駕(jia)齊驅(qu)的【林洋能(neng)(neng)(neng)源】。

（2）大(da)力(li)(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)氫能、儲(chu)能等綠(lv)色低(di)(di)碳(tan)產(chan)業，產(chan)業景氣(qi)(qi)度(du)有望提(ti)升。1月19日，國務院新聞辦新聞發(fa)(fa)(fa)布會上，工(gong)信部新聞發(fa)(fa)(fa)言(yan)人、運行監測協調局(ju)局(ju)長陶青表示，下(xia)一步，工(gong)信部2024年(nian)計劃制定(ding)100項左右重(zhong)點(dian)產(chan)品(pin)碳(tan)足跡規則標準。大(da)力(li)(li)發(fa)(fa)(fa)展(zhan)氫能、儲(chu)能等綠(lv)色低(di)(di)碳(tan)產(chan)業，提(ti)升落后產(chan)能能耗、環(huan)(huan)保等要求，加(jia)(jia)快推進減污降碳(tan)協同(tong)增(zeng)效。重(zhong)點(dian)推薦：華(hua)電(dian)旗下(xia)，堿性+PEM雙向(xiang)發(fa)(fa)(fa)力(li)(li)，項目經驗豐(feng)(feng)富的【華(hua)電(dian)重(zhong)工(gong)】；具備(bei)海(hai)陸雙氣(qi)(qi)源，廣東地(di)區具備(bei)充分(fen)加(jia)(jia)氫站建(jian)設經驗的【九豐(feng)(feng)能源】；板翅式(shi)換熱器龍頭(tou)，承擔冬奧會加(jia)(jia)氫站換熱設備(bei)的【中(zhong)泰股份】；氫能壓縮機龍頭(tou)【冰(bing)輪環(huan)(huan)境】。建(jian)議(yi)關注：鍋爐裝備(bei)領跑者，布局(ju)堿性電(dian)解槽的【華(hua)光環(huan)(huan)能】。

本周(zhou)專(zhuan)題：2023年(nian)全國(guo)全社會(hui)用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)92241億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，同比+6.7%；分產(chan)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)看，第一產(chan)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)1278億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)11.5%；第二產(chan)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)60745億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)6.5%；第三產(chan)業用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)16694億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)12.2%；城鄉居民生活用(yong)(yong)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)13524億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，同比增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)(chang)0.9%。規模以上工(gong)業發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)(liang)為89091億(yi)千(qian)(qian)(qian)瓦(wa)時(shi)，同比+5.2%，其中(zhong)12月(yue)份，規上工(gong)業火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速加(jia)快，水(shui)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、風電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)、太陽能發(fa)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)速回(hui)落(luo)，核電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)降幅擴大。

投資建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)：“十(shi)四五”國(guo)家對環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)質量和(he)工(gong)業(ye)綠色低(di)碳發展提出更多要(yao)求，節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)以及資源(yuan)(yuan)循環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)利用有(you)望(wang)維持(chi)高景氣度，建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)積極把握節(jie)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)及再生資源(yuan)(yuan)板塊的投資機遇(yu)。重點推薦：國(guo)林科(ke)技、倍杰特(te)；建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關注(zhu)：冰輪環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)、高能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)、偉(wei)明環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)保(bao)、旺能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)、華宏科(ke)技、中(zhong)國(guo)天(tian)楹。“十(shi)四五”期間，能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)結(jie)構低(di)碳化轉型將(jiang)持(chi)續(xu)推進，風電和(he)光伏裝機依然保(bao)持(chi)快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)增長，水(shui)電核電有(you)序推進，同時儲能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、氫能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、抽(chou)水(shui)蓄能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)也(ye)將(jiang)進入快(kuai)(kuai)速(su)發展階(jie)段。重點推薦：南網科(ke)技、中(zhong)國(guo)核電、華電重工(gong)、中(zhong)泰股份、申(shen)菱環(huan)(huan)(huan)(huan)境(jing)；建(jian)(jian)(jian)議(yi)關注(zhu)：穗恒運(yun)A、科(ke)匯股份、三峽能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、龍(long)源(yuan)(yuan)電力、林洋(yang)能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、九豐能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)源(yuan)(yuan)、蘇文電能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)、華能(neng)(neng)(neng)(neng)國(guo)際、國(guo)電電力。

風險(xian)(xian)提示：項(xiang)目(mu)推進不及預期；市場競爭(zheng)加劇；國際政治局勢(shi)變化；政策推進不及預期；電價下調(diao)風險(xian)(xian)。

(來源：慧博投研)

免責聲明：本文內容與數據僅供(gong)參考，不構成投(tou)資建議，使用(yong)前請核(he)實。據此操作，風險自擔(dan)。

(編輯 曾健輝)