每(mei)經AI快訊，中(zhong)信建投(tou)研報分(fen)析，近日，江蘇電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)交(jiao)易中(zhong)心公(gong)告2024年(nian)年(nian)度長協交(jiao)易結果。2024年(nian)年(nian)度交(jiao)易總成交(jiao)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)3606.24億千瓦(wa)(wa)時，加(jia)權均(jun)價(jia)(jia)452.94元(yuan)/兆(zhao)瓦(wa)(wa)時。根(gen)據(ju)江蘇之前(qian)的年(nian)度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)交(jiao)易方(fang)案(an)，公(gong)用煤電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)量(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)（即電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)能(neng)(neng)交(jiao)易價(jia)(jia)格）通過市場交(jiao)易在“基準+上(shang)下(xia)浮動”形成，幅(fu)度均(jun)不超過20%，容量(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)按照國家和(he)省有關(guan)規定執行。容量(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)方(fang)面，按照100元(yuan)/千瓦(wa)(wa)的容量(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)、4500利(li)用小時估算(suan)，平攤到度電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)的容量(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)約為2.2分(fen)錢。則江蘇火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)24年(nian)實際(ji)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)為475元(yuan)/兆(zhao)瓦(wa)(wa)時，相較于(yu)391元(yuan)/兆(zhao)瓦(wa)(wa)時的基準電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)上(shang)浮21.5%，整(zheng)體電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)好于(yu)市場預期。我們繼(ji)續(xu)判斷江浙滬皖區域電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)力(li)(li)供需格局較好，整(zheng)體火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)在容量(liang)電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)政策落地的前(qian)提下(xia)，電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)價(jia)(jia)有望維持較好水平，進而能(neng)(neng)確保24年(nian)火電(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)(dian)盈利(li)進一步(bu)改善。