每經AI快訊，2024年1月17日(ri)，民(min)生證(zheng)券發布研(yan)報點評(ping)醫藥行業。

醫藥周觀點：本周重點關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)研(yan)發(fa)(fa)賽道(dao)和藥品(pin)研(yan)發(fa)(fa)新(xin)節奏。眼科方(fang)向關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)近視(shi)賽道(dao)重點品(pin)種硫酸阿托品(pin)滴眼液研(yan)發(fa)(fa)進度，看好后續(xu)產品(pin)獲批帶來的市場空間。同時一(yi)季度重點關(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)本土藥品(pin)創(chuang)新(xin)研(yan)發(fa)(fa)服(fu)務，相關(guan)細分板塊仿制藥分成類業務進入(ru)拐(guai)點向上階段，1類創(chuang)新(xin)品(pin)種隨著臨床的逐步推進，也(ye)將陸續(xu)進入(ru)收獲期。

1）CXO：2023年(nian)全球(qiu)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物技術投融資(zi)企(qi)穩回升(sheng)(sheng)，重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)全球(qiu)龍(long)頭(tou)、仿(fang)制藥(yao)(yao)(yao)CRO、GLP-1三(san)大(da)(da)(da)方(fang)向。藥(yao)(yao)(yao)明生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物2023年(nian)非(fei)新(xin)冠新(xin)增(zeng)(zeng)項(xiang)目數創歷(li)史新(xin)高(gao)，生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物藥(yao)(yao)(yao)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)產(chan)全球(qiu)化(hua)(hua)和(he)(he)離岸(an)外(wai)(wai)包的(de)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)不(bu)斷增(zeng)(zeng)長。2）創新(xin)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)：眼(yan)科(ke)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)物賽道患者人(ren)群龐大(da)(da)(da)，關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)近視(shi)及(ji)干眼(yan)癥(zheng)(zheng)賽道，2023年(nian)5月興齊眼(yan)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)硫酸阿托(tuo)品(pin)(pin)滴眼(yan)液（SQ729）的(de)上(shang)市申請被擬納(na)入(ru)優(you)先審(shen)評(ping)，建議(yi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)近期(qi)(qi)審(shen)評(ping)審(shen)批進(jin)展(zhan)。AD新(xin)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)侖(lun)卡奈單(dan)抗國(guo)(guo)內獲(huo)批，關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)AD領(ling)域(yu)診斷需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)。3）中(zhong)(zhong)醫(yi)(yi)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)：冬春季國(guo)(guo)內呼吸(xi)道疾病(bing)患病(bing)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)，短期(qi)(qi)建議(yi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)呼吸(xi)道疾病(bing)終端(duan)(duan)(duan)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)增(zeng)(zeng)長和(he)(he)基藥(yao)(yao)(yao)目錄推進(jin)情況，長期(qi)(qi)建議(yi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)板塊業(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)穩健(jian)增(zeng)(zeng)長。4）疫苗(miao)與(yu)血(xue)制品(pin)(pin)：國(guo)(guo)內HPV疫苗(miao)在研管線豐富，10余(yu)家藥(yao)(yao)(yao)企(qi)參與(yu)布局，臨床(chuang)(chuang)進(jin)度可觀，關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)萬泰生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物、康樂衛士、沃森生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物、瑞科(ke)生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物、智飛生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物等。中(zhong)(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)來看，疫苗(miao)板塊關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)帶(dai)狀皰疹(zhen)疫苗(miao)、HPV疫苗(miao)等產(chan)品(pin)(pin)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)的(de)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)。血(xue)制品(pin)(pin)國(guo)(guo)企(qi)化(hua)(hua)進(jin)程不(bu)斷推進(jin)，關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)供給(gei)與(yu)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)雙(shuang)(shuang)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)景氣度提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)。5）醫(yi)(yi)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)上(shang)游供應鏈(lian)(lian)：創新(xin)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)行(xing)(xing)情回暖(nuan)，疊加(jia)海外(wai)(wai)市場開拓(tuo)，帶(dai)動生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)科(ke)鏈(lian)(lian)板塊業(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)+估值修復(fu)(fu)，關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)制藥(yao)(yao)(yao)工業(ye)(ye)端(duan)(duan)(duan)大(da)(da)(da)訂(ding)單(dan)落(luo)地節(jie)奏。6）醫(yi)(yi)療設備與(yu)IVD：重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)三(san)諾生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)物CGM產(chan)品(pin)(pin)的(de)放量及(ji)FDA獲(huo)證(zheng)節(jie)奏。關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)IVD集采(cai)進(jin)度。7）醫(yi)(yi)療服(fu)(fu)務：建議(yi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)剛性(xing)醫(yi)(yi)療服(fu)(fu)務，具備較高(gao)的(de)業(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)韌性(xing)，考(kao)慮到下(xia)(xia)半年(nian)屬于傳統醫(yi)(yi)療旺(wang)季，且(qie)部分公(gong)司估值處于歷(li)史低(di)位建議(yi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)。8）線下(xia)(xia)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)店：門診統籌(chou)政策(ce)陸續落(luo)地實行(xing)(xing)，隨著(zhu)門診統籌(chou)管理(li)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)房滲透率(lv)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)帶(dai)來人(ren)流量提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)，Q4藥(yao)(yao)(yao)房利(li)潤有(you)(you)(you)(you)望(wang)環比(bi)改善。9）高(gao)值耗材：關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)近期(qi)(qi)流感潮(chao)汐(xi)下(xia)(xia)呼吸(xi)道POCT快檢(jian)(jian)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)的(de)系(xi)統性(xing)投資(zi)機(ji)(ji)(ji)會(hui)(hui)及(ji)年(nian)報(bao)一季報(bao)兌現機(ji)(ji)(ji)會(hui)(hui)，短期(qi)(qi)推薦(jian)基本面(mian)較強的(de)康復(fu)(fu)、電生(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)(sheng)理(li)、神經介入(ru)和(he)(he)大(da)(da)(da)小支架領(ling)域(yu)，其(qi)次關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)運動醫(yi)(yi)學(xue)國(guo)(guo)家集采(cai)及(ji)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)節(jie)集采(cai)續約談判中(zhong)(zhong)有(you)(you)(you)(you)望(wang)出(chu)現積極(ji)變化(hua)(hua)的(de)骨科(ke)領(ling)域(yu)國(guo)(guo)產(chan)龍(long)頭(tou)公(gong)司，明年(nian)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)集采(cai)影(ying)響(xiang)出(chu)清(qing)后有(you)(you)(you)(you)望(wang)出(chu)現業(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)拐(guai)點(dian)的(de)脊柱領(ling)域(yu)。10）原(yuan)(yuan)料(liao)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)：一致性(xing)評(ping)價疊加(jia)集采(cai)加(jia)速行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)洗牌(pai)，特色原(yuan)(yuan)料(liao)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)跨國(guo)(guo)轉移(yi)帶(dai)來增(zeng)(zeng)量機(ji)(ji)(ji)會(hui)(hui)，部分產(chan)品(pin)(pin)價格周期(qi)(qi)觸底(di)有(you)(you)(you)(you)望(wang)較快迎來系(xi)統性(xing)修復(fu)(fu)，“原(yuan)(yuan)料(liao)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)+制劑”、“原(yuan)(yuan)料(liao)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)+CDMO”等強協(xie)同方(fang)向打開成長天花板，行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)機(ji)(ji)(ji)遇逐步顯現，近期(qi)(qi)建議(yi)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)減肥(fei)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)相關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)原(yuan)(yuan)料(liao)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)公(gong)司，中(zhong)(zhong)長期(qi)(qi)關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)具有(you)(you)(you)(you)多(duo)層次競爭優(you)勢(shi)的(de)行(xing)(xing)業(ye)(ye)龍(long)頭(tou)及(ji)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)鏈(lian)(lian)延伸方(fang)向，以及(ji)產(chan)品(pin)(pin)價格有(you)(you)(you)(you)望(wang)率(lv)先反轉的(de)肝(gan)素及(ji)沙坦領(ling)域(yu)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)點(dian)公(gong)司。11）儀器(qi)(qi)設備：科(ke)學(xue)儀器(qi)(qi)需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)端(duan)(duan)(duan)有(you)(you)(you)(you)望(wang)隨經濟好轉復(fu)(fu)蘇，看好國(guo)(guo)產(chan)儀器(qi)(qi)在需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)端(duan)(duan)(duan)、政策(ce)端(duan)(duan)(duan)、產(chan)品(pin)(pin)端(duan)(duan)(duan)三(san)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)共振下(xia)(xia)的(de)長期(qi)(qi)成長性(xing)機(ji)(ji)(ji)會(hui)(hui)；關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)臨床(chuang)(chuang)檢(jian)(jian)測設備增(zeng)(zeng)量市場機(ji)(ji)(ji)會(hui)(hui)，肝(gan)臟彈(dan)性(xing)檢(jian)(jian)測設備檢(jian)(jian)測有(you)(you)(you)(you)望(wang)受益于NASH新(xin)藥(yao)(yao)(yao)獲(huo)批和(he)(he)glp-1藥(yao)(yao)(yao)物適應癥(zheng)(zheng)拓(tuo)展(zhan)，科(ke)學(xue)儀器(qi)(qi)下(xia)(xia)游應用不(bu)斷拓(tuo)展(zhan)深化(hua)(hua)，關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)產(chan)業(ye)(ye)東風下(xia)(xia)國(guo)(guo)產(chan)龍(long)頭(tou)的(de)業(ye)(ye)績(ji)(ji)兌現機(ji)(ji)(ji)會(hui)(hui)，有(you)(you)(you)(you)望(wang)享受國(guo)(guo)產(chan)替代和(he)(he)檢(jian)(jian)測項(xiang)目拓(tuo)展(zhan)雙(shuang)(shuang)重(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)利(li)好加(jia)入(ru)放量。12）低(di)值耗材：關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)GLP-1相關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)上(shang)游輔包材需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)提(ti)(ti)升(sheng)(sheng)和(he)(he)潛在國(guo)(guo)產(chan)廠(chang)商(shang)切入(ru)供應鏈(lian)(lian)的(de)機(ji)(ji)(ji)遇；關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)注(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)下(xia)(xia)游需(xu)(xu)(xu)求(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)(qiu)恢(hui)復(fu)(fu)、補庫存、以及(ji)供給(gei)端(duan)(duan)(duan)格局優(you)化(hua)(hua)的(de)相關(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)(guan)上(shang)游耗材領(ling)域(yu)。

投資建(jian)議：建(jian)議關注(zhu)興(xing)齊眼藥(yao)(yao)、賽(sai)托生(sheng)(sheng)物、陽光諾(nuo)和、百誠醫藥(yao)(yao)、萬邦醫藥(yao)(yao)、成(cheng)都先導、藥(yao)(yao)明康德、藥(yao)(yao)明合(he)聯、諾(nuo)泰生(sheng)(sheng)物、普(pu)蕊斯、祥生(sheng)(sheng)醫療(liao)、邁得醫療(liao)、可(ke)孚(fu)醫療(liao)、三諾(nuo)生(sheng)(sheng)物等。

風險(xian)提示(shi)：集采壓力大于預期風險(xian)；產品(pin)研(yan)發進度不及預期風險(xian)；競爭加劇(ju)風險(xian)；政策監管環(huan)境變(bian)化風險(xian)；藥物(wu)研(yan)發服務(wu)市場需(xu)求下(xia)降(jiang)的風險(xian)。

(來源：慧博投研)

免責聲明(ming)：本(ben)文(wen)內容與數(shu)據僅(jin)供參(can)考，不構成投資建議，使用前(qian)請核實。據此操作(zuo)，風(feng)險自擔。

(編輯 曾健輝)