陸(lu)家嘴:持有量提升,區位新機遇

類別：公司研(yan)究 機構：中(zhong)信建投證券(quan)股份(fen)有限公司 研(yan)究員(yuan)：蘇雪(xue)晶(jing),劉璐 日期：2014-11-03

陸家嘴發布三季報,前三季營業收入為33億元,同(tong)(tong)比增(zeng)長(chang)32.9%;歸屬(shu)于(yu)母公司所有者的凈利(li)潤為9.9億元,同(tong)(tong)比下降9.5%,EPS0.53元。

持有物(wu)業小高峰來(lai)臨(lin),銷售尚需(xu)努力(li):公司前三季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)增(zeng)收(shou)(shou)(shou)不增(zeng)利,主要因(yin)基數效應,投資(zi)收(shou)(shou)(shou)益項同(tong)比(bi)(bi)有逾(yu)60%的(de)下(xia)滑。前三季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)結算(suan)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入約12億(yi)(yi),租(zu)賃業務(wu)收(shou)(shou)(shou)入達11.84億(yi)(yi),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)速約16%。三季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)世紀(ji)金融廣場項目(mu)剩余三個辦公樓已經(jing)入市(shi),持有物(wu)業的(de)第一(yi)波小高峰來(lai)臨(lin),從目(mu)前招(zhao)租(zu)情況來(lai)看十分(fen)理想,但(dan)其業績貢獻因(yin)免租(zu)期影響(xiang)未(wei)能在(zai)(zai)三季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)體現,預(yu)計四季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)會給租(zu)賃收(shou)(shou)(shou)入帶來(lai)明(ming)顯(xian)增(zeng)長。受環境影響(xiang),銷售方面前三季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)回(hui)(hui)款17億(yi)(yi),同(tong)比(bi)(bi)去年下(xia)降約26%,三季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)紅(hong)醍半島別墅(shu)產品面世,預(yu)計隨著上(shang)海(hai)市(shi)場率先回(hui)(hui)暖,同(tong)時產品頗具(ju)價格優勢,有望在(zai)(zai)四季(ji)(ji)(ji)度(du)(du)(du)加速去化(hua)。

前灘即將啟(qi)動(dong),迪(di)斯(si)尼、臨(lin)(lin)港(gang)再添新機遇:公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)在(zai)建(jian)(jian)(jian)體量推升(sheng)工(gong)程投入,而前灘中(zhong)心業(ye)已完(wan)成前期(qi)設(she)(she)計即將開(kai)工(gong),將進一步提升(sheng)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)(de)資(zi)金需求(qiu),公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)中(zhong)票發行的(de)(de)50億兩期(qi)全部到位,匹配公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)接(jie)下(xia)(xia)來連續三四年(nian)(nian)的(de)(de)持(chi)續高投入。我們曾提示,上(shang)海在(zai)自貿區、迪(di)斯(si)尼、臨(lin)(lin)港(gang)開(kai)發等諸多方(fang)面都體現(xian)著區域(yu)機會,公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)作為(wei)(wei)上(shang)海浦東金融板塊(kuai)運營(ying)經(jing)驗最為(wei)(wei)豐富的(de)(de)企業(ye),期(qi)待能夠得以進一步發展。根據(ju)規劃(hua),迪(di)士尼將于(yu)(yu)明年(nian)(nian)年(nian)(nian)中(zhong)開(kai)園(yuan),目前配套(tao)進展順利,陸家嘴集團作為(wei)(wei)上(shang)海迪(di)斯(si)尼中(zhong)方(fang)公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)控股(gu)股(gu)東,承建(jian)(jian)(jian)相關建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)漸行漸近。10月集團公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)加大(da)了(le)對(dui)于(yu)(yu)新辰公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)的(de)(de)投資(zi),公(gong)(gong)(gong)司(si)(si)也(ye)以2.4億認(ren)購(gou)其(qi)20%股(gu)份,我們認(ren)為(wei)(wei)這(zhe)是集團啟(qi)動(dong)臨(lin)(lin)港(gang)建(jian)(jian)(jian)設(she)(she)的(de)(de)信號,預計下(xia)(xia)個月將會有更為(wei)(wei)具體的(de)(de)動(dong)向。

投資評級與盈利(li)預(yu)測:我(wo)們認為(wei)陸家(jia)嘴是(shi)A股中具備條件做持(chi)有物(wu)業運(yun)營商并兼具成長空間(jian)的(de)唯一(yi)標的(de),加之自貿區以及國(guo)企(qi)改革的(de)催熱(re)效應,凸顯公司稟(bing)賦優勢。預(yu)計公司14-15年(nian)EPS分別為(wei)0.80、0.96元,維持(chi)“增持(chi)”評級。