每經(jing)AI快訊，中國銀河02月21日發布研報稱：給予通信推薦（維持）評級。

信息基(ji)(ji)(ji)建(jian)(jian)和(he)核心技(ji)術有望超前(qian)布(bu)局(ju)，數(shu)(shu)(shu)字經濟需(xu)求刺激(ji)行業快發展：5G基(ji)(ji)(ji)建(jian)(jian)穩步(bu)推進助力(li)用(yong)戶(hu)增(zeng)長(chang)，千兆光網(wang)(wang)覆蓋(gai)和(he)服(fu)務能(neng)力(li)持(chi)續提升(sheng)。趙良畢(bi)近(jin)日，中(zhong)國(guo)移(yi)動發布(bu)23年(nian)(nian)(nian)一月運(yun)營數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)，移(yi)動用(yong)戶(hu)總數(shu)(shu)(shu)達(da)(da)9.76億(yi)戶(hu)，凈(jing)增(zeng)50.3萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)戶(hu)。其中(zhong)5G用(yong)戶(hu)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)達(da)(da)6.22億(yi)戶(hu)，凈(jing)增(zeng)846.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)(維(wei)持(chi))戶(hu)。有線(xian)寬帶用(yong)戶(hu)數(shu)(shu)(shu)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)達(da)(da)到2.75億(yi)戶(hu)，凈(jing)增(zeng)252.9萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)戶(hu)。目前(qian)我國(guo)22全年(nian)(nian)(nian)累(lei)(lei)計(ji)(ji)建(jian)(jian)成并開通(tong)5G基(ji)(ji)(ji)站(zhan)231.2萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)，基(ji)(ji)(ji)站(zhan)總量占(zhan)全球60%以上(shang)，每(mei)萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)人擁有5G基(ji)(ji)(ji)站(zhan)數(shu)(shu)(shu)達(da)(da)到16.4個(ge)(ge)，移(yi)動網(wang)(wang)絡保(bao)持(chi)5G建(jian)(jian)設全球領先。固定網(wang)(wang)絡逐步(bu)實(shi)現從(cong)百兆向千兆躍升(sheng)，我國(guo)22全年(nian)(nian)(nian)光纜(lan)線(xian)路(lu)總長(chang)度達(da)(da)到5958萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)里，比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)末凈(jing)增(zeng)477萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)公(gong)(gong)里，網(wang)(wang)絡運(yun)力(li)不斷增(zeng)強(qiang)。數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)中(zhong)心布(bu)局(ju)與數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)處理(li)能(neng)力(li)持(chi)續優化。ChatGPT作為一種超智能(neng)對話(hua)AI產(chan)品，從(cong)技(ji)術原理(li)和(he)運(yun)行條件都需(xu)要(yao)強(qiang)大的算力(li)作為支(zhi)撐(cheng)。數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)中(zhong)心作為信息交換(huan)、計(ji)(ji)算、儲(chu)存的重要(yao)載(zai)體，運(yun)營商有望加大數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)中(zhong)心投入，22全年(nian)(nian)(nian)為公(gong)(gong)眾提供(gong)服(fu)務的數(shu)(shu)(shu)據(ju)(ju)中(zhong)心機架數(shu)(shu)(shu)達(da)(da)81.8萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)，比上(shang)年(nian)(nian)(nian)末凈(jing)增(zeng)8.4萬(wan)(wan)(wan)(wan)個(ge)(ge)。新基(ji)(ji)(ji)建(jian)(jian)建(jian)(jian)設及服(fu)務提質(zhi)升(sheng)級(ji)、流量增(zeng)長(chang)拉動信息消(xiao)費升(sheng)級(ji)，增(zeng)強(qiang)數(shu)(shu)(shu)字化支(zhi)撐(cheng)力(li)，帶來運(yun)營商板(ban)塊新機遇。

運(yun)營(ying)商(shang)(shang)傳統業(ye)務(wu)(wu)發展(zhan)穩中有(you)升(sheng)，新興業(ye)務(wu)(wu)貢獻(xian)率超六成增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)勢突出：傳統業(ye)務(wu)(wu)業(ye)績穩重有(you)升(sheng)，三(san)大運(yun)營(ying)商(shang)(shang)均有(you)各自(zi)低頻5G頻段，5G建設性價比(bi)(bi)及(ji)覆(fu)蓋(gai)廣度均有(you)較(jiao)大提升(sheng)，5G新應(ying)用(yong)(yong)支(zhi)撐力(li)(li)不斷增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)強(qiang)。截至(zhi)22Q3，中國(guo)移(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)ARPU值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)（移(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)50.7元/寬帶業(ye)務(wu)(wu)41.1元）；中國(guo)電(dian)信(xin)(xin)ARPU值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)（移(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)45.5元/寬帶業(ye)務(wu)(wu)46.6元）；中國(guo)聯通ARPU值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)（移(yi)動(dong)(dong)(dong)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)44.4元），ARPU值(zhi)(zhi)(zhi)穩步回升(sheng)業(ye)績支(zhi)撐力(li)(li)強(qiang)。新興業(ye)務(wu)(wu)布局增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)收作用(yong)(yong)不斷增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)強(qiang)，基(ji)礎電(dian)信(xin)(xin)企業(ye)22全年收入(ru)3072億元，同比(bi)(bi)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)32.4%，拉動(dong)(dong)(dong)電(dian)信(xin)(xin)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)收入(ru)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)5.1pct。三(san)大運(yun)營(ying)商(shang)(shang)業(ye)務(wu)(wu)布局逐步從(cong)此前的(de)5G建設轉向5G應(ying)用(yong)(yong)發展(zhan)及(ji)云計算方面，市場空(kong)間增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)大。同時與互聯網公司的(de)合(he)作共贏也帶來(lai)了業(ye)績高(gao)速(su)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)預期(qi)；在數字經濟及(ji)數據(ju)要(yao)素政(zheng)策推動(dong)(dong)(dong)及(ji)需求拉動(dong)(dong)(dong)下運(yun)營(ying)商(shang)(shang)掌握大量2C/B/H端(duan)數據(ju)，數據(ju)資產豐富助力(li)(li)發揮數據(ju)要(yao)素核(he)心(xin)環節。總體來(lai)說，三(san)大運(yun)營(ying)商(shang)(shang)有(you)望憑借規(gui)模(mo)優勢開拓(tuo)新增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)長(chang)曲線，提振(zhen)行業(ye)整體盈利水平。

運營(ying)商(shang)(shang)成(cheng)長性(xing)突破分(fen)(fen)紅派息(xi)(xi)率提(ti)高(gao)，國(guo)央(yang)企(qi)(qi)改(gai)革(ge)估值(zhi)(zhi)有(you)望(wang)持續重構：三(san)大運營(ying)商(shang)(shang)盈(ying)利能力、現(xian)金流狀況(kuang)進一(yi)(yi)步改(gai)善，公司繼續通(tong)(tong)過高(gao)額分(fen)(fen)紅回饋股(gu)東。中國(guo)電信(xin)(xin)有(you)望(wang)加大派息(xi)(xi)力度(du)，今年(nian)派息(xi)(xi)有(you)望(wang)達70%，電信(xin)(xin)運營(ying)商(shang)(shang)有(you)望(wang)將分(fen)(fen)紅水平維持在高(gao)位。我們認為，5G應(ying)用、數字經濟新基建(jian)(jian)是(shi)未來(lai)通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)超預期的(de)重點方(fang)向，運營(ying)商(shang)(shang)作為數字經濟重要支柱的(de)地位，具備一(yi)(yi)定的(de)成(cheng)長性(xing)，低(di)估值(zhi)(zhi)央(yang)企(qi)(qi)估值(zhi)(zhi)有(you)望(wang)持續重構。政策利好疊加高(gao)分(fen)(fen)紅積極回報股(gu)東策略，先估值(zhi)(zhi)再(zai)基本面有(you)望(wang)雙升。隨著新基建(jian)(jian)數據流量快速增(zeng)長，以(yi)及(ji)通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)+新基建(jian)(jian)不斷協(xie)同突破，通(tong)(tong)信(xin)(xin)行(xing)(xing)業估值(zhi)(zhi)有(you)望(wang)企(qi)(qi)穩(wen)回升，相關產業鏈(lian)景氣上行(xing)(xing)。建(jian)(jian)議關注新基建(jian)(jian)強相關的(de)投資方(fang)向以(yi)及(ji)運營(ying)商(shang)(shang)，推薦中國(guo)移動，中國(guo)電信(xin)(xin)，中國(guo)聯通(tong)(tong)。

風險(xian)提示(shi)：業務轉(zhuan)型(xing)不(bu)(bu)及預期(qi)，創新商業模式未形成，5G商用(yong)推(tui)進(jin)不(bu)(bu)及預期(qi)，中美(mei)技術摩擦不(bu)(bu)確(que)定性風險(xian)。

每經頭(tou)條（nbdtoutiao）——

(記者 蔡鼎)

免責聲明：本(ben)文內容與(yu)數據僅供參考，不構成投資(zi)建議，使用(yong)前請核(he)實。據此(ci)操作，風險自擔。

封面圖片(pian)來源(yuan)：每日經濟(ji)新(xin)聞(wen) 文多(duo) 攝