每經AI快訊，2024年1月14日，招商(shang)證券(quan)發布研報點(dian)評(ping)隆平高科（000998）。

旺季國(guo)內外(wai)種業(ye)主業(ye)高增(zeng)、降本增(zeng)效(xiao)顯著及(ji)歷(li)史包袱持(chi)續(xu)出清為(wei)公司業(ye)績(ji)表現超預期主因。2023/24年(nian)(nian)國(guo)內外(wai)核(he)心品種或(huo)有(you)望實(shi)現量利雙增(zeng)；不排除2024年(nian)(nian)公司或(huo)實(shi)現百億營收(shou)目標(biao)的可能。

國(guo)內種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)持續向好，增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)持后(hou)并表巴西資產增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)厚業(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)。公(gong)司(si)(si)2023年預計實(shi)現(xian)營業(ye)(ye)(ye)收(shou)入88~95億元（按調整(zheng)前(qian)同(tong)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)139%~158%；調整(zheng)后(hou)同(tong)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)16.8%-26.1%），歸屬凈利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)1.65~2.25億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)扭(niu)虧，對應(ying)EPS0.13~0.17元。其中23Q4實(shi)現(xian)歸屬凈利(li)(li)(li)潤(run)7.1~7.7億元，同(tong)比(bi)(bi)扭(niu)虧，對應(ying)EPS0.54~0.58元。公(gong)司(si)(si)收(shou)入端高增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)因(yin)為(wei)高產優質品種(zhong)市占(zhan)率(lv)持續提升支撐種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)景(jing)氣及四(si)季(ji)度并表隆平發展(zhan)，盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)端表現(xian)超預期(qi)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)要(yao)是(shi)源于：1）公(gong)司(si)(si)大(da)力推行降(jiang)本(ben)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)效，毛(mao)利(li)(li)(li)率(lv)顯著改善，Q4國(guo)內外(wai)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)盈(ying)利(li)(li)(li)高增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)；2）控(kong)費(fei)效果明顯，不僅銷售(shou)/管理費(fei)用較(jiao)往年顯著減(jian)少(shao)，美元貸款部分歸還及置換也使得財務費(fei)用顯著降(jiang)低(di)、外(wai)匯損失較(jiao)上年同(tong)期(qi)減(jian)少(shao)約1.23億元；3）公(gong)司(si)(si)剝離低(di)效非種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)資產，權益法確認的投(tou)資損失較(jiao)上年同(tong)期(qi)減(jian)少(shao)。整(zheng)體(ti)看，旺(wang)季(ji)國(guo)內外(wai)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)(ye)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)業(ye)(ye)(ye)高增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)、降(jiang)本(ben)增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)效顯著及歷(li)史包袱持續出(chu)清為(wei)公(gong)司(si)(si)單四(si)季(ji)度業(ye)(ye)(ye)績(ji)高增(zeng)(zeng)(zeng)主(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)(zhu)因(yin)。

國內(nei)(nei)外(wai)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)景(jing)氣(qi)高企，核心(xin)品(pin)種(zhong)有(you)望(wang)量利(li)(li)雙(shuang)增(zeng)。當前國內(nei)(nei)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)供應偏緊(jin)，農戶(hu)種(zhong)植收(shou)(shou)益(yi)高企對玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)種(zhong)子端有(you)正向催(cui)化(hua)。海外(wai)玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)有(you)望(wang)受益(yi)于巴西玉(yu)(yu)米(mi)市場規(gui)模持續擴容(rong)。考慮到公(gong)司(si)老舊品(pin)種(zhong)庫存出清，結(jie)合隆平品(pin)種(zhong)田間(jian)表現及23Q3預(yu)收(shou)(shou)款同比增(zeng)長18%，判斷公(gong)司(si)2023/24年國內(nei)(nei)外(wai)種(zhong)業(ye)(ye)高景(jing)氣(qi)有(you)望(wang)延續，核心(xin)品(pin)種(zhong)或有(you)望(wang)實(shi)現量利(li)(li)雙(shuang)增(zeng)。且不排除2024年公(gong)司(si)或實(shi)現百億營收(shou)(shou)目標的可能。

轉基因(yin)商業化(hua)啟動在即，品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)×性狀(zhuang)前(qian)景可期。國家對糧食安全和種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)業安全的(de)(de)重視程度不斷(duan)提(ti)升(sheng)；轉基因(yin)玉(yu)米產業化(hua)再迎實質進展(zhan)。12月7日國家公示的(de)(de)37個(ge)(ge)轉基因(yin)玉(yu)米品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)中(zhong)，隆(long)(long)平(ping)(ping)(ping)有(you)8個(ge)(ge)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)在列，品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)數量居于(yu)首位；性狀(zhuang)端隆(long)(long)平(ping)(ping)(ping)參股的(de)(de)杭(hang)州瑞豐(feng)亦有(you)9個(ge)(ge)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)過審(shen)；由此印證隆(long)(long)平(ping)(ping)(ping)高(gao)科(ke)在性狀(zhuang)及品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)上均(jun)有(you)豐(feng)富儲備，且(qie)都(dou)具備較強競爭力。目前(qian)隆(long)(long)平(ping)(ping)(ping)在國內玉(yu)米品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)上做了全區域布局，預計未(wei)來轉基因(yin)滲透率提(ti)升(sheng)過程中(zhong)，隆(long)(long)平(ping)(ping)(ping)的(de)(de)品(pin)(pin)種(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)(zhong)優(you)勢和渠道(dao)優(you)勢或將繼續放大，市場份額仍有(you)望進一步提(ti)升(sheng)。

維(wei)持“強(qiang)烈推(tui)薦(jian)”投資評級(ji)。水(shui)稻種(zhong)業(ye)穩(wen)步復蘇；國(guo)內外玉米種(zhong)業(ye)景(jing)氣高企，核心品種(zhong)有望量(liang)利(li)雙(shuang)增；轉基因放開后，品種(zhong)×性狀發展前景(jing)可期。考慮到公司于(yu)2023年(nian)11月(yue)并(bing)表巴(ba)西(xi)隆平增厚公司業(ye)績(ji)，預計2023~2025年(nian)公司凈利(li)潤分別(bie)為1.85/6.24/8.71億元，對應EPS為0.14/0.47/0.66元，維(wei)持“強(qiang)烈推(tui)薦(jian)”投資評級(ji)。

風險提示：極端天氣、貿(mao)易摩擦、地緣沖(chong)突等不(bu)可預見(jian)性事件導致糧食價(jia)格波(bo)動(dong)超預期(qi)；銷量/提價(jia)/發(fa)貨不(bu)達(da)預期(qi)；轉(zhuan)基(ji)因(yin)商業化進度不(bu)達(da)預期(qi)；匯率波(bo)動(dong)風險。

(來源：慧博投研)

免責聲明：本文內容與數據僅(jin)供參考，不(bu)構成投資(zi)建議，使用前(qian)請核實。據此操作，風險自擔。

(編輯 曾健輝)